Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Deep Easterly · 07-06-2010 01:22AM

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

It seems I'm not clarifying what it is I don't understand. I'll leave it at that, as posting in this or a new thread won't change any misunderstandings. Suffices to say, a quick google could have told me the differences in an upper or lower trough. I was asking a very specific question about this morning's rain, that was all.

I am certainly no expert on upper troughs (they freak me out

), but the rain last night into this morning could have been partly the result of a conflict between the 850hpa and 300hpa wind streams, a conflict that developed late on the 5th. (I am open to contradiction on this as I am far from all knowing in this area

:o)

Here is the stream chart for 6am this morning showing both 850 and 300 streams:

850's (green) conflicting with 300's (orange) over the northeastern half of Ireland. Result, development and sustainment of a low pressure trough, or 'boundery zone' which is was shown on the 06z synoptic analysis on ZAMG:

First thing I look for though when trying to predict convective rain or showers is a shear between winds at 1000hpa and 500hps, but there are many more factors involved I know.

I think a new thread on this would be a good thing, might help those who are easily confused by these very complex factors to learn more about them. I need to learn about them at least.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2010 06:58AM

Wow, and here I thought it was a holiday of some kind ... thanks for visiting, scientific community !!!

Anyway, back to the weather that cannot be avoided ...

Monday, 7 June, 2010
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TODAY will bring periods of steady rain in southern counties and a more intermittent showery rainfall will edge further north during the morning -- it may stop short of most counties in Ulster. The cloud will probably dominate there as well, but with a bit more warmth getting through, highs in the north could be 16-18 C while further south it may hold at 13-15 C. Rainfalls of 10 to 30 mms will be fairly common in Munster as well as southern Leinster. Winds will pick up to SE 15-30 mph and could gust higher near the south coast, and later near the east coast.

TONIGHT will continue wet and breezy with lows only falling off slightly to about 9-11 C. A further 5-10 mms of rain will accumulate in many areas. Dry areas in Ulster could start to see drizzle too. Winds will back slightly to easterly 15-30 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY will remain wet and breezy as winds back to ENE 15-30 mph. The rain may become more showery especially in the northern half of the country and by afternoon the sun could be visible at times in Connacht. Highs will be mostly in the 13-15 C range.

WEDNESDAY will bring somewhat more settled conditions but the northeast flow will continue quite strong at 20-35 mph, with passing showers heavier in the east. The temperature range will be rather narrow, from lows near 8 C to highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY, there is some chance of a renewed period of steady and possibly heavy rain although it could stay off the southeast coast, as strong low pressure develops out of the remnants of the low responsible for today's rain, and moves north across England. What's more certain is that winds will increase and back around to northerly 20-40 mph. The weather may remain dry in Donegal and nearby counties although not everywhere as some showers may develop over the ocean too moving inland. Highs will be in the range of 14-16 C.

FRIDAY the rather windy and cool weather may begin to improve slowly and the rain should end as the systems move quickly away to the northeast. Winds will therefore swing back around to the NW and then W at 15-30 mph with higher gusts. Highs during the day will be 15-17 C.

The further outlook is settled as a ridge of high pressure develops from the Azores across Ireland. This should lead to a steady warming trend through next weekend and well into the following week. Highs could reach the low to mid 20s again.

Well, sorry that it has to rain on your holiday (if it does) but we've been getting light rain at times on our Sunday here, with a rather cool high of about 15 C. The storms further east ripped through Boston earlier, missed New York City ... and there was quite a bit of tree damage in parts of New England but nothing like the widespread damage the day before in the Great Lakes region. Looking ahead, some extremely hot air has moved out of its normal source regions in the southwestern deserts and is headed for Colorado and Kansas where later today it could be as hot as 40 deg C. :cool::eek:

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2010 06:52AM

Tuesday, 8 June, 2010
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TODAY will remain mostly cloudy although there could be some brief brighter intervals. Light rain will tend to redevelop from northeast back towards the southwest, gradually. Highs will be 15-17 C and winds NE 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, and lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY will see another bout of light rain moving around the stalled low (near the Channel) and highs will be 16 C or so, with another 5-15 mms of rain in some areas. Winds will continue moderate NE at 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY should be dry in most areas, but there could be showers in the southeast. Winds will continue NE 15-30 mph and highs will be near 16 C in the east to 18-20 C in the west, as more sunny breaks develop.

FRIDAY will be back to more cloud and isolated showers, NE winds backing to NNW 15-30 mph, and highs near 17 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly promising with little if any rain and bright if somewhat cloudy skies on Saturday, probably turning more sunny for Sunday. Highs will remain near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is still looking fairly warm and dry.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Monday 7th was partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals later on, and a high near 18 C. Severe storms have broken out in Nebraska overnight, moving towards Iowa and Illinois.

08-06-2010 08:47AM

M.T Cranium, really enjoy reading your posts!

My brother is getting married in Dublin on Friday and the forecasts I've read for the day on various websites seem to swing from heavy rain and cool to sunny.
He's not too bothered what the weather's like but his bride is worried it will pour down and she won't get any photos outside.
So, Friday in the east?

magicray · 08-06-2010 09:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

M.T Cranium, really enjoy reading your posts!

My brother is getting married in Dublin on Friday and the forecasts I've read for the day on various websites seem to swing from heavy rain and cool to sunny.
He's not too bothered what the weather's like but his bride is worried it will pour down and she won't get any photos outside.
So, Friday in the east?

lol wonder are we going to the same wedding ?
I was just about to ask the same question, my sister is getting married on Friday in Dublin too !

Love your posts M. T. - first thing I read everyday when I turn on the computer

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2010 08:39PM

Based on the latest guidance, Friday in Dublin is not looking too bad, assuming this is early to mid afternoon, it should be partly cloudy with nothing more than a brief sprinkle of rain and quite possibly staying dry, a bit windy from the north to north east, and around 16 or 17 C. However, the forecast could change because there is a rather strong low with rain in the picture just to the southeast, so I would keep an eye on the forecasts and hope for the best.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2010 06:34AM

Wednesday, 9 June, 2010
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TODAY will continue cloudy with only a few brief brighter intervals possibly in the southeast and also the northwest, away from a rather steady stream of light rain and drizzle moving from Ulster towards Munster in northeast winds of about 15-30 mph. Highs today will be 14-16 C (18 C where it brightens) and rainfall amounts mostly 3-7 mms.

TONIGHT will continue cloudy but the rain should become more of an intermittent drizzle before ending in most places. Winds will continue rather brisk from the northeast at 15-25 mph. Lows will reach 8-10 C.

THURSDAY should be a dry and partly cloudy day for most, but rain won't be far from the southeast so we should keep a chance of a shower for that part of the country (but it may be dry anyway). Winds will continue rather steady from the northeast at 15-25 mph, and highs will range from 15-17 C in the east to 18-20 C in the south and west.

FRIDAY (see previous post for some Dublin details requested) will probably stay dry as well in most places, but there could be some brief scattered showers more likely to be significant in north central and northwest counties. There will be sunny intervals despite a fairly extensive cloud cover. Highs will reach 16-18 C (after morning lows of 5-8 C).

THE WEEKEND is looking reasonable with high pressure beginning to dominate again. In a light northerly flow, backing to NW and then W, skies should be variably cloudy allowing some sunny intervals. Any light showers or drizzle would be more likely near the northwest coast. Highs will be 18-20 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking warm and dry as high pressure builds up again right over Ireland. Highs by mid-week could be back into the low or even mid 20s inland with very light winds returning.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2010 06:08AM

Thursday, 10 June, 2010
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TODAY will bring some gradual improvements as the cloud begins to break apart in central counties, possibly holding as overcast in the southeast and parts of the northwest. There could be some light showers in those areas, although even there many places should remain dry. Sunshine might be more abundant in counties around Tipps, Cork, Limerick and Kerry by mid-day. Highs should respond to the sunshine by reaching 18-20 C but with more cloud cover will stay near 16 C. A steady northeast breeze backing at times to north will blow at 15-25 mph but it will be reasonably warm despite this.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and possibly clear at times, with just a slight chance of drizzle near the Mayo and Donegal coasts. Lows will be about 5-8 C on average (nights are getting very short now).

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, with a slight risk of a brief shower by mid-day but these would be quite isolated. Winds will continue moderate from the north at about 15-25 mph, and highs will reach 17 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, some chance of low cloud, drizzle and fog near the outer west coast, and highs of about 20 C following a morning low near 8 C.

SUNDAY may bring a bit of light rain in Connacht mostly, 1-3 mms only, and other parts of Ireland should remain dry with some hazy sunshine at times, highs near 20 C. Winds will now be light westerly.

MONDAY will be about the same, partly cloudy, slight chance of a brief shower, winds turning a bit more northerly again, and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY are looking warm and dry although some parts of the north coast could have low cloud and drizzle. Highs may be able to respond to the stronger sunshine by rising into the low 20s.

The weather here today (and yesterday) -- Tues/Wed 8th-9th -- has been ideal for outdoor activity, especially for those of us who don't like a lot of glare from the sun, as it has been mostly cloudy, dry with just the odd spit of rain in the evenings, and highs near 17 C. The very hot weather in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas is now making a slow push east and should bring temperatures in New York and Boston back up this weekend once the rain from a warm front ends.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2010 07:06AM

Friday, 11 June, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, more frequent this morning in the south, then as cloud shifts south, the sunny breaks will develop in the north by afternoon. As this cloud moves south, it brings with it some patchy light rain and showers, but amounts will be slight and some places could remain dry. Winds will be northerly backing to westerly later, and not too strong at 12-25 mph. Highs today will be 16 or 17 C for most.

TONIGHT will become clear with some patchy fog developing. Lows will be about 7 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud with some light rain spreading into the northwest by evening. However, for most parts of Ireland the day should be dry and reasonably pleasant with some morning sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and periods of drizzle or light rain more frequent in the north and west. It may be more of a mist than actual rain and so not a washout by any means, with highs of about 19 C.

MONDAY will become breezy again from the NW to N with passing showers especially in Ulster but to some extent elsewhere as well, and just a touch cooler with the low near 7 C and the high near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, dry and reasonably warm despite a slight northerly wind, with highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking settled, warm and dry. The winds are going to turn more to the northeast then east as the expected Atlantic high is now showing signs of ridging over the north into Scotland. This will allow the air flow to warm up over the UK before it heads for Ireland and so it should be about 22-24 C away from the Irish Sea coasts where 18-20 C due to sea breezes.

Meanwhile, the weather here on Thursday (10th) was cloudy with intervals of light rain and a high of about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-06-2010 07:02AM

Saturday, 12 June, 2010
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The new moon occurs today at about 1115 GMT or 1215 summer time. At that moment, the Moon will be slightly above the Sun, so no eclipse occurs. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some seismic activity of a minor nature associated with this close syzygy. Tidal ranges will be high although there's very little wind to build up local water levels beyond the tide table amounts.

Forecast follows from yesterday, just some editing changes ...

TODAY will see increasing cloud with some light rain spreading into the northwest by late afternoon or evening. However, for most parts of Ireland the day should be dry and reasonably pleasant with some morning sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds and highs near 20 C.

TONIGHT will become cloudy with light rain at times mostly in Connacht and west Ulster. Lows will fall to about 10-11 C, perhaps 8 C in the southeast where skies may remain clear longer.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and periods of drizzle or light rain more frequent in the north and west. There may be some embedded heavier showers moving southeast from about Donegal to Meath during the second half of the day in association with a frontal wave dropping southeast in a rapidly strengthening jet stream. Otherwise, it may be more of a mist than actual rain and so not a washout by any means in southern counties especially, with highs of about 19 C.

MONDAY will become breezy again from the NW to N 15-30 mph, with passing showers especially in Ulster but to some extent elsewhere as well, and just a touch cooler in partly cloudy conditions, with the low near 7 C and the high near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, dry and reasonably warm despite a slight northerly wind, with highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are looking settled, warm and dry. The winds are going to turn more to the northeast then east as the expected Atlantic high is now showing signs of ridging over the north into Scotland. This will allow the air flow to warm up over the UK before it heads for Ireland and so it should be about 22-24 C away from the Irish Sea coasts where 18-20 C due to sea breezes. (More recent guidance showing this ridge back a little south again, right over central Ireland, looks very nice, and this spell does not show signs of ending rapidly either).

The weather here on Friday (11th) was partly cloudy at first, then sunny with highs of about 19 C. We are looking at some sunshine for Saturday and showers for late Sunday, so a fairly similar weekend to yours, with a front dropping southeast late Sunday too (where exactly am I? this tends to get me very disoriented when the weather does this).

Enjoy the weekend ... I know I will.

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2010 06:20AM

Sunday, 13 June, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some showers this morning in parts of Ulster and Leinster, then a brief interval with some brighter skies will follow from west to east, before a more organized area of showers arrives for the mid-day to afternoon hours from northwest to southeast. This frontal band will perhaps set off one or two thundery showers in central counties. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms will be fairly general later today, and highs will reach about 17 C in freshening westerly winds of 20-30 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT will continue showery and breezy as winds veer to NW 20-35 mph, with lows of about 10-12 C.

MONDAY will also be cloudy with brief sunny intervals, gusty northerly winds at 20-35 mph, and passing showers, heavier in Ulster than most other parts of Ireland. There should be somewhat of a clearing trend in the west by afternoon and evening. Highs will range from 14-16 C in Ulster, 15-17 in Connacht, to 16-18 in Leinster and 18-20 C in Munster except west coastal Kerry at 16-18 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals developing, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. The northerly breeze will tend to die out from west to east during the day.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should be a rather warm and dry period although there could be intervals of cloud and showers skirting the northeast coast at times by Friday. With longer intervals of sun, the highs will reach 21-23 C inland, 18-20 C near the north and east coasts. Overnight readings will be generally about 7-10 C.

This pleasant spell of weather does not look like breaking down quickly either.

Over here, we had a very fine Saturday with some warmth in the sun, a sort of elevated mist from the sea breeze, and a bracing temperature of about 19 or 20 C while it was 24-27 C further inland. Trying to warm up in the northeast U.S., not pushing into New England very easily, and once the warmth reaches there on Monday, a shot of cooler air will follow.

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2010 03:44PM

UPDATE _ Sunday, 3:45 p.m.
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Counties from Louth down to Wicklow are getting a heavy rainfall of about 20 to 30 mms with some thunder embedded. In the unstable northwest flow behind this frontal trough, southeast Ireland could see some gusty hail showers and the situation is conducive for funnel clouds to form and possibly a weak localized tornado before this activity dies out around 9 p.m. -- not a high risk situation, but something to keep an eye on.

magicray · 13-06-2010 05:44PM

Just wanted to say thanks MT Cranium, the weather was just as you predicted for the wedding on Friday - we didnt see as much as a drop of rain - was a bit overcast but perfect for photos

df1985 · 13-06-2010 06:32PM

the weatherman on rte was pratically giddy giving the forecast for the end of the week!

M.T. Cranium · 14-06-2010 06:27AM

Monday, 14 June, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals more likely in the southwest. A few showers will develop later, but these may be rather drizzly and amounts will be generally slight. Winds will start NNW and turn more to the NE later, 10-20 mph. Highs will be about 16 C in the north and 19 C in the south.

TONIGHT will be cloudy at first, with clear intervals after midnight, leading to some light fog or mist. Lows will be in the 6-9 C range.

TUESDAY will bring some sunny intervals once the morning fog or low cloud dissipate, and light northeast winds. Highs will be 16-18 C north and east, 18-20 C west and south.

WEDNESDAY will be a mostly sunny day with some cloudy intervals in the northwest mostly. Highs will be 18-22 C after morning lows of 5-8 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and local showers could develop in a slack easterly flow. The highs will be near 21 C.

FRIDAY and next weekend are still looking dry and warm with highs in the low 20s and possibly in some cases mid-20s.

The models are hinting that this warm spell would end a few days later with a weak northerly and I think from my research that there may not be a lot of rain again until around the 25th.

Meanwhile, the weather here today (Sunday 13th) was cloudy to start, sunny later on with highs near 20 C. A cold front has just passed without any rain.

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2010 06:56AM

Tuesday, 15 June, 2010
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TODAY, some morning cloudiness will eventually break up to partly sunny skies, with highs reaching 20 C on average. The north may be closer to 17 C and there remains a very slight risk of a shower there. Winds today will be quite light and sea breezes will develop around most coastal regions.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear, and cool again, with lows of about 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy as well, with reasonable amounts of sunshine although some places could have long cloudy intervals. Winds will remain very light with local sea breezes; highs will be 19-21 C.

THURSDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun with isolated showers developing probably well inland, highs reaching 20-22 C.

FRIDAY will be similar, with highs of about 20-22 C again; there may be a bit more sunshine in general.

THE WEEKEND is looking very good at this point, with partly cloudy to sunny conditions and warm temperatures in the 23-25 C range.

Today's weather here was sunny most of Monday (14th) although light showers developed in the evening. We have some rather cold air aloft but the high down here at sea level was 16 C.

secman · 15-06-2010 10:52AM

MT's forecast for the weekend is a much better prospect than what was forecast on RTE last night, they predicted a northerly flow keepings temps down @ 15 - 16 degrees !

My money is on MT ! ...............fingers crossed !

Well done MT keep up the good work.

secman

Sponge Bob · 15-06-2010 11:31AM

secman wrote: »

MT's forecast for the weekend is a much better prospect than what was forecast on RTE last night, they predicted a northerly flow keepings temps down @ 15 - 16 degrees !

That is the typical 'Dublin Forecast' you get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

It will probably be scorchio at the weekend in the west and southwest. glasnevin met and RTÉ also said it would be very wet on Thursday ( lots of dark cloud graphic) but MT predicts the thursday showers will be "well inland"...ie not in the west or southwest but more likely Dublin again.

I will plan my day, as ever, around MT and not the unprofessional Dublin Forecasts we get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

Squeaksoutloud · 15-06-2010 11:34AM

Yes I noticed Met Eireann had downgraded their forecast for the weekend. I'll be following the forecast here so here is hoping for a nice one as planning an outdoors weekend.

owenc · 15-06-2010 05:40PM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

That is the typical 'Dublin Forecast' you get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

It will probably be scorchio at the weekend in the west and southwest. glasnevin met and RTÉ also said it would be very wet on Thursday ( lots of dark cloud graphic) but MT predicts the thursday showers will be "well inland"...ie not in the west or southwest but more likely Dublin again.

I will plan my day, as ever, around MT and not the unprofessional Dublin Forecasts we get from the glasnevin met and RTÉ.

Don't forget my place i always get the warmest in ni, but i bet yeh the sea breeze will come again..:rolleyes:

pauldry · 15-06-2010 10:47PM

Yep Thursday looks a wet day, Met Eireann hv now upgraded weekend to 20 or 21c though todayfm said 24c!!!!!

Since the 6th April there has only been 77mm of rain in Sligo in about 70 days. Though there was 28mm in the first 5 days of April. Since the Monday (5th April) when there was over 20mm of rain we have not got over 8mm on any single day.

Some parts of the grass are now gone to sand or cracked soil although bizarrely enough other parts are grwing very well. Does anyone know why this could be?

Back to topic... Thursday wet and showery but weekend pleasant and warm and Ill be on the look out for the MT forecast Friday Morning:)

M.T. Cranium · 16-06-2010 06:24AM

Good morning, I am staying with the forecast idea from yesterday, while there may be a slight northerly flow on the weekend, it just looks to me as though a warm bubble of subtropical air will form very close to Ireland and slight windshifts will only affect coastal sea breeze directions; inland it should stay quite warm. I also tend to think that Thursday's moisture will be isolated and will form some locally heavy showers, while quite a few places may escape any rain there. Not that everyone wants to escape rain due to long-term dry conditions. Well, with all that in mind, the forecasts ...

Wednesday, 16 June, 2010
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TODAY will be partly cloudy with good periods of sunshine in most areas. Any cloud should be more or less mid-level to high-level, letting some sunshine through anyway. Highs will reach about 23 C inland from west to east, and sea breezes will drop readings to about 19 C.

TONIGHT will see some increase in cloud and it will be a bit milder, with lows generally 9-12 C.

THURSDAY will feature variable amounts of cloud, still some good sunny periods in some parts, and local showers possibly a brief heavy thundershower in one or two. The convergence of sea breezes could set off these showers so look for heavier rainfall amounts somewhat inland. Highs will reach about 23 C if there's enough sunshine, otherwise about 20 C.

FRIDAY will see more settled conditions again, just a very slight risk of a shower, and highs near 22 C on average.

THE WEEKEND should be very pleasant, I am not seeing much if any drop in temperature and some places could hit 22-24 C. Winds may be slightly more northerly but this will only cool off the north coast and perhaps allow a NE seabreeze to develop around coastal parts of Dublin. We'll revisit this of course closer to the time.

Also, this warm dry spell does not seem to have any imminent end in sight, on balance I would suggest it might break down around the 25th.

Today (Tuesday 15th) here was cloudy to start, with showers at times, then the sun was out by afternoon, and it remained quite cool, about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-06-2010 06:42AM

Thursday, 17 June, 2010
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TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals, rather warm and close, with scattered showers developing, risk of a heavier thundershower in central counties (but only about 10% chance). Highs will range from 21-23 C inland and near 17 C west and north coasts due to onshore sea breezes.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with mist or fog developing towards dawn and lows near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy periods, and warm with highs near 22 C, slight risk of a brief shower well inland.

SATURDAY will also be sunny with cloudy periods and highs near 23 C, sea breezes cooling the coastal regions down to about 18-20 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, still rather warm, slight risk of a shower developing, and highs similar to Saturday.

Next week is looking similar with relatively warm temperatures, little rain until about the end of the week possibly with heavier showers likely by 25th-26th.

Today in what we call "lotus land" around here, it was pleasant, cloudy for the most part, sunny after about 3 p.m., and a high of about 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-06-2010 06:19AM

Friday, 18 June, 2010
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TODAY, some very light rain may be observed moving south from Ulster but by mid-morning this should have dissipated further south and any residual cloud should also break up to sunny intervals, with highs of about 22-24 C inland and near 19 C around the coasts due to sea breezes and local mist or low cloud banks. If anything remains of the weak front mentioned above, it may be one or two brief showers further south by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear but hazy with fog patches by morning, and lows of 8-12 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun and warm temperatures with highs of 22-24 C inland, near 20 C around the coasts. Winds will be light and variable, mostly onshore sea breezes. There will be the slight risk of a brief shower well inland again.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with highs still around 22-24 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY should remain warm and largely dry with some increase in cloud and coastal fog or low cloud, mild nights and reasonably warm days in the 19-23 C range, and a slowly increasing risk of showers mainly in the west.

By THURSDAY and FRIDAY it may be more unsettled with heavier showers and temperatures near 20 C.

Today (Thursday 17th) here was a very cool, cloudy day with drizzle and highs only about 14 C. This is about as cool as we can expect at this time of year.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2010 06:26AM

Saturday, 19 June, 2010
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TODAY will be sunny and pleasantly warm once the morning chill wears off (and that should be around 0830 or so). Winds will be light northerly but more moderate (8-15 mph) near the coasts. Highs will be 19-23 C inland and near the south coast, 16-18 C near the north and east coasts, and 18-20 C near the west coast (although 21 C around Galway and other places on longer west coast bays and inlets). The sun will be scorching today due to low humidity and not much to shield from the rays, so take precautions.

TONIGHT will be another clear, cool night with lows falling briefly into the range of 5-8 C inland and suburban Dublin, 8-12 C coastal and Dublin city centre. The thing about these mid-June nights, they may get quite chilly but the sun is already up by 0500 and the chill has gone before many get out of bed especially on a weekend.

SUNDAY will be a warm, hazy but mainly sunny day with highs of about 23 C inland, 18-20 C near shore due to sea breezes all around the country; in the light gradient wind, the sea breezes will blow in from all directions.

MONDAY will see gradually increasing cloud and a bit more humidity, a light southerly gradient which may tend to cool off the southern coastal regions and bring in some low cloud there at times. Highs will be generally 22-24 C but could be 16-19 C near the south coast.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will see further sporadic increases in cloud cover and a very gradual development of showers or local thundershowers, heavier in the western counties at first, then scattered rather sporadically across the country, due to a weak disturbance drifting ever closer to Munster from the Atlantic. Highs each day will probably continue in the 21-23 c range and could be even higher in some inland and northeastern counties.

From research, I would say that around Friday and Saturday there may be more substantial rainfalls and a slight drop in temperatures through that period due to stronger low pressure developing nearby.

The past day here (Friday 18th) was more pleasant than the previous few, as clouds parted around 1030h and warm sunshine followed, highs were near 21 C. Still, it has been a cool six or seven weeks here since early May.

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2010 06:07AM

Sunday, 20 June, 2010
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TODAY will once again see widespread sunshine overcoming a chilly start (only 3 C at Gurteen at 0500) and by the time most people are up and about, it should be 10-12 C then rising steadily to 19-22 C with one or two places possibly 23-24 C in the central inland counties. Unlike yesterday, there won't be as much of a north to northeast gradient although there is still a slight flow from that direction which will favour east coast sea breezes over other coasts, although some sea breeze activity will develop against the flow by mid-afternoon. Inland there may be very little wind, certainly less than one club if you're golfing.

TONIGHT will be another cool and clear night, perhaps not quite as chilly as the weekend overnight lows, in the 7-10 C range mostly.

MONDAY will be hazy and quite warm with a slight southerly flow developing, allowing more sea breeze activity on the south coast, so look for highs there only 16-18 C but most other places 21-24 C.

TUESDAY will begin to bring more cloud from a slowly advancing frontal system, and there could be isolated showers in the west by afternoon, but most other areas will have a similar day to Monday with highs 20-23 C.

WEDNESDAY will see more extensive cloud and showers with higher humidity and high temperatures in the 18-22 C range.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY is likely to bring a showery period with perhaps some substantial rainfalls in a few spots, easing the drought at least locally, and highs 17-20 C on average, possibly a bit higher inland.

Meanwhile, here the weather on Saturday (19th) was partly cloudy and seasonably warm at about 18-20 C across the region. There's not a lot of active weather across North America at this point and the east has returned to warmer than normal conditions.

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

rainbow kirby · 20-06-2010 09:48AM

Good weather for the hurling this afternoon then!

nilhg · 20-06-2010 10:20AM

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday, 20 June, 2010
________________________

TODAY will once again see widespread sunshine overcoming a chilly start (only 3 C at Gurteen at 0500) and by the time most people are up and about, it should be 10-12 C then rising steadily to 19-22 C with one or two places possibly 23-24 C in the central inland counties. Unlike yesterday, there won't be as much of a north to northeast gradient although there is still a slight flow from that direction which will favour east coast sea breezes over other coasts, although some sea breeze activity will develop against the flow by mid-afternoon. Inland there may be very little wind, certainly less than one club if you're golfing.

TONIGHT will be another cool and clear night, perhaps not quite as chilly as the weekend overnight lows, in the 7-10 C range mostly.

MONDAY will be hazy and quite warm with a slight southerly flow developing, allowing more sea breeze activity on the south coast, so look for highs there only 16-18 C but most other places 21-24 C.

TUESDAY will begin to bring more cloud from a slowly advancing frontal system, and there could be isolated showers in the west by afternoon, but most other areas will have a similar day to Monday with highs 20-23 C.

WEDNESDAY will see more extensive cloud and showers with higher humidity and high temperatures in the 18-22 C range.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY is likely to bring a showery period with perhaps some substantial rainfalls in a few spots, easing the drought at least locally, and highs 17-20 C on average, possibly a bit higher inland.

Meanwhile, here the weather on Saturday (19th) was partly cloudy and seasonably warm at about 18-20 C across the region. There's not a lot of active weather across North America at this point and the east has returned to warmer than normal conditions.

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

MT, seems some of your Canadian farmers have been having a hard time seeding this year, that and the possibility of drought in Western Australia has lifted wheat prices a little here, I feel for those guys though after the last couple of summers I know what it's like trying to work when the weather is constantly against you.

WolfeIRE · 20-06-2010 01:52PM

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just a note that tomorrow (Monday 21st) is the summer solstice at 1130z (u.t.) or 1230h summer time. But the latest sunsets of the year come a few days later because of some quirks of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. In reality there are a number of almost equally short nights at this point in the year. Despite that, last night was actually colder at some places than some of the longest nights of the year, at least the milder ones between Christmas and New Years.

hi mt. that's interesting about the elliptical orbit. Any chance you might know more about why this is the case or does it happen regularly enough. maybe a new thread could be started on this by you as i dont want to divert attn from your thread here.

thanks MT

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2010 03:45PM

The earth's orbit undergoes periodic changes and these are thought to be the main causes of the glacial cycles in recent geologic times. To learn more about that, I would suggest you google or otherwise search "Milankovitch cycles" as he was the main proponent of these theories.

Now when I said "elliptical orbit" that refers to the slightly eccentric orbit of the earth at present. The earth is closest to the Sun in early January and furthest in early July, but the eccentricity is only about .01 -- Mercury and Mars have considerably more eccentric orbits than our planet. But this value changes over time and this can be one factor in glaciation. More important factors are changes in our axial tilt (the current 23.4 deg can increase to more than 24 deg) and the seasonality of strongest insolation.

This business about sunset getting a few minutes later after solstice is also related to the directionality of polar wobble at this point, I believe that factor allows the Sun's apparent path to rise a little faster than polar tilt forces it to retreat for a few days, then the polar tilt takes over the balance but if you run a program like skyglobe you'll see that in each month of the year, the Sun's course through the sky is not just a sine curve, but it tends to rise more gradually than it sets for half the year, then reverses and rises more steeply than it sets for the other half year. This is because the axial tilt has a sideways component and this feature "precesses" around the orbital path once every 26,000 years, causing our summer to occur one zodiacal sign earlier every 2,200 years or so. This is why the current astrological signs are actually one sign ahead of solar time, if you follow my drift, for example, Gemini, the sign that is supposed to refer to the period 22 May to 21 June, is where the Sun now resides from about 22 June to 21 July. As the signs were named back in Roman times, we are stuck with the dates that prevailed over two thousand years ago. In another two thousand years, the Sun will be in this constellation from about 22 July to 21 August, so the difference will become two full months.

Another consequence of this cycle is that the winter sky about 13,000 years ago (and from now) will be what we now see in summer, and our familiar winter constellations will appear lower in the sky in summer.

This is essentially what's behind the speculation (hysteria if you prefer) about December 2012 -- the winter solstice lines up with the galactic centre in this year of the Mayan calendar's ending point, and this circumstance has been approaching very gradually for the past few centuries as the background sky appears to rotate around due to this precession. Personally, I don't think this exact alignment will produce any significant results as the nearly similar alignments every year in recent times would create almost the same effects (which compared to the solar-lunar tidal forces are very small). But this is the reason behind the event, whether it's significant or not when it arrives.

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