Longshot Value, 100 bets

longshotvalue · 25-02-2010 2:22pm #1

Might start this tread to keep track of my tips 100 bets see how it goes. Usually post on Letsbet..

Rules are

1 No all weather racing (better to go with the experts here)
2 No Mid Week Irish Racing (cant pick longshots with chance is poor handicaps)
3 Max 2 bets mid week, and 4 Weekend
4 Keep track with Betfair Starting Price, usually longshots price is better nearer the off so ill tend to bet at the odds quoted and again if there odds are better nearer the off..

1 NOAKARAD DE VERZEE 4:10 Hunt, Betfair 18 win 5.3 Place, 1 point win 2 points place. (has run well of this mark , may like the soft rather than heavy last time, has won with this 7lbs claimer on board..)

2 BRING IT ON HOME 4:40 Hunt, Betfair 28 win 5.7 Place, 1 point win 1 point place. ( first time this year over correct trip with decent mark)

digme · 25-02-2010 5:24pm

Noakarad De Verzee @ 14/1 (GP) he won

Nice tip.

longshotvalue · 25-02-2010 5:26pm

1 NOAKARAD DE VERZEE 4:10 Hunt, Betfair 18 win 5.3 Place, 1 point win 2 points place. (has run well of this mark , may like the soft rather than heavy last time, has won with this 7lbs claimer on board..)

Won at 9.47:D:D Place was around 3 ill update later.. Nice start..

longshotvalue · 25-02-2010 5:47pm

2 BRING IT ON HOME 4:40 Hunt, Betfair 28 win 5.7 Place, 1 point win 1 point place. ( first time this year over correct trip with decent mark)[/QUOTE]

4th placed at 4.9:)

digme · 25-02-2010 7:16pm

You won me 25 quid today

Keep them coming.

matt flyer · 26-02-2010 2:08am

Good tips had €5 e/w on both look forward to tomorrows.

Kod-box · 26-02-2010 2:57am

Probably just another advert for a syndicate lol

longshotvalue · 26-02-2010 4:13pm

Kod-box wrote: »

Probably just another advert for a syndicate lol

longshotvalue · 26-02-2010 4:29pm

3. Lukie Victor. 4:55 Warwick. Back to correct trip , ground, on a low mark with a 10lbs claimer, any glimmer of old form might get a place here..
Betfair 29.0 Win 5.6 Place
.5 point win .1 point place.

x PyRo · 26-02-2010 4:40pm

Kod-box wrote: »

Probably just another advert for a syndicate lol

Aren't you funny. :rolleyes:

I know Aidan from another forum and he's as genuine as they come.

longshotvalue · 26-02-2010 4:49pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Aren't you funny. :rolleyes:

I know Aidan from another forum and he's as genuine as they come.

thanks PyRo,

Trying this to be a bit more disciplined with selections, in general, have a habit of picking too many etc..

Lucky Start..

longshotvalue · 27-02-2010 9:42am

4. MADISON DU BERLAIS , 3:05 Kemp. First time Blinkers, is the class horse of the race, very good run at the track in the king george.. Betfair 9.7w 3.1pl

1 Point win 2 points Place

5. MISTER QUASIMODO , 4:10 Kemp. off a decent mark, might be a better trip, back from a break chasing.. Betfair 36w 7pl

1 Point win 1 point Place Non Runner

6. THE HOLLOW BOTTOM, 4:10 Kemp, back to winning mark, with the right combination of track, going , distance. Betfair 22w 5.1

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 27-02-2010 9:56am

So Far to the first 3 Horses

Advised +27.3
BSP +14.37

Seanohea · 27-02-2010 1:12pm

That hollow bottom is a great tip.
There's a great, very successful tipster tipping him today

longshotvalue · 27-02-2010 1:42pm

Seanohea wrote: »

That hollow bottom is a great tip.
There's a great, very successful tipster tipping him today

Hope so i've him backed at 22w 5.1pl on betfair, looks decent value now..

longshotvalue · 03-03-2010 3:49pm

Story So Far after 6 bets

BSP + 9.37
Advised + 22.3

longshotvalue · 03-03-2010 3:50pm

7. SHREWD INVESTOR 38win 8.6 Place, ( Bangor 3:50) seems overpriced because of last poor run after break.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

POINTBREAK · 03-03-2010 4:36pm

aidankkk wrote: »

7. SHREWD INVESTOR 38win 8.6 Place, ( Bangor 3:50) seems overpriced because of last poor run after break.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

Huge price, might have a few bob ew. I already did Star Player in the race at 14. and 4.1 PLACE.

longshotvalue · 03-03-2010 4:39pm

8. GARRYOWEN STAR Betfair 22w 6.2 Pl, (Down 3:45) looks overpriced on Betfair, very decent in this type of race

1 point win 1 point Place

longshotvalue · 05-03-2010 2:20pm

Story So Far after 8 bets

BSP + 5.37
Advised + 18.3

longshotvalue · 05-03-2010 2:23pm

9. ONCE MORE DUBAI Meyden 4:50, there might not be a lot between the godolphin horses in this race, looks to the the perfect distance as 12 looked too far last time.. Overpriced Betfair 17 win 3.95 Place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Woddle · 05-03-2010 5:53pm

Thanks very much aidankkk, I checked him out on your say so and liked it alot

longshotvalue · 05-03-2010 7:38pm

aidankkk wrote: »

9. ONCE MORE DUBAI Meyden 4:50, there might not be a lot between the godolphin horses in this race, looks to the the perfect distance as 12 looked too far last time.. Overpriced Betfair 17 win 3.95 Place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Delighted with that..

x PyRo · 05-03-2010 7:47pm

Stunning as usual Aidan.

longshotvalue · 05-03-2010 11:09pm

10. Tatantiano Arkle Cheltenham.. Betfair 16.5 win 4.9 Place.. Altough im on Captian Cee Bee at 20s:D, with the ground almost certain to be decent 16.5 is overpriced. He has jumped superb so far, and his last loss can be put down to the terrible ground.. Wont be bigger than 8/1 on the day.. Has critical course form and nichols and ruby are really sweet on him in good ground

1 Point Win 2 Point Place

longshotvalue · 05-03-2010 11:51pm

11. STAN Newbury 3:10, 4th in this race last year of a much higher mark, needs the better ground, and has a 7lbs passanger on for the first time this year.. Canny trainer Betfair 40win 7place. Its possible that there will be much higher priced available tomorrow..

1 point win 1 point place

longshotvalue · 06-03-2010 12:04am

12. Air Force One Donc 3:25, jumped badly last time, was first run this year seems overpriced to return to some kind of form on this mark.. Betfair 14.5 win 3.85 place

1 point win 1 point place..

POINTBREAK · 06-03-2010 11:37am

Excellent thread. Keep it up Aiden.

Nulty · 06-03-2010 2:22pm

Yeah well done aiden. You pulling out winners whaen the rest of us (HT included) is stuggling.

longshotvalue · 07-03-2010 9:43am

Story So Far after 12 bets

BSP + 25.09
Advised + 36.2

longshotvalue · 07-03-2010 9:45am

13. Ballytrim Naas 4:00, of his weight today, he is better than the 9.8 currently available on Betfair. Trip may be slightly short..

1 Point Win

thesandeman · 07-03-2010 9:48am

Think I better start following this one. Fair play. Hopefully you will find a 66/1 during Chelt.

longshotvalue · 07-03-2010 10:20am

thesandeman wrote: »

Think I better start following this one. Fair play. Hopefully you will find a 66/1 during Chelt.

Would ya believe im looking right now..

longshotvalue · 07-03-2010 12:37pm

14. Cornish SET , Cross Country Cheltenham, Should improve witht eh better ground, and may have been trained with this in mind, Nicholls does not tend to keep them with no reason.. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet, 33/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

15. A New Story, Cross Country Cheltenham, Proven course form, and with paying 4 places, seems value to place, has 2 decent runs this year. Betfair 75 Win No Place Market Yet. 40/1 Bookies

.5 Point Win .5 Point Place

smelltheglove · 07-03-2010 5:11pm

Nice one stuck a fiver e/w on him at 12/1 good stuff mate!!

POINTBREAK · 07-03-2010 5:14pm

Nice one!

thesandeman · 07-03-2010 5:17pm

Looks like we have a new forum hero.

longshotvalue · 07-03-2010 7:29pm

aidankkk wrote: »

13. Ballytrim Naas 4:00, of his weight today, he is better than the 9.8 currently available on Betfair. Trip may be slightly short..

1 Point Win

:D Happy with that ended up 11.74,

POINTBREAK · 07-03-2010 8:00pm

aidankkk wrote: »

:D Happy with that ended up 11.74,

Townend is a brilliant jockey. I backed Bella Man Mou at 30 and it traded at 3.8 coming to the 2nd last going well, but it seemed to just blow out and was pulled up again about a furlong out.

Knobs · 08-03-2010 1:58am

Some nice winners there, keep it up

Kod-box · 08-03-2010 3:02am

will be following these from now on too, good work so far man.

longshotvalue · 08-03-2010 12:52pm

Story So Far after 15 bets

BSP + 35.83
Advised + 44.7

Still Running Bets 5 pts.

longshotvalue · 08-03-2010 12:55pm

16. Cannon Fire FFos Las, 4:35.. Needs the better ground and appears to me to have dropped to far in ratings on poor ground.. Has run well of higher marks.. Jockey is on poor run (not completed for trainer last 4 runs) and trip is plenty short enough are negatives, but seems overpiced. Betfair win 27.0 Place 6.6

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

smelltheglove · 08-03-2010 1:40pm

nice one already had a few bob on him this morning always stick a euro or 2 on any big priced evan williams horses got him at 22's

longshotvalue · 08-03-2010 3:14pm

17 Punjabi Cheltenham Champion hurdle.. Betfair 9.8 Win, almost 9/1 about a repeat with the race cutting up as we speak, clearly should be priced lower than Zaynar.. Looks like the Value

2 Points Win

longshotvalue · 09-03-2010 12:30pm

18 Macmar. Exeter 3:30, Has dropped down weights on unsuitable soft going, is a bit of a course specialist, and has won here of higher marks.. Negative is the trip is further than his wins here, looks value in an open race...Betfair win 19 Place 5

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 12-03-2010 3:02pm

Story So Far after 18 bets

BSP + 28.83
Advised + 37.7

Bet down Tatantiano Arkle 1w2pl.

longshotvalue · 12-03-2010 3:02pm

19 POCKET TOO Sandown 4:05, Back over the right trip ground, signs of some return to form last time, won of a lot higher, 7lbs Passanger on this time no weight.. Betfair 32w 8.8pl

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 12-03-2010 4:24pm

20 MOKUM, 3:30 Sandown, may be set out for this, ran well 2 years ago, has had one run this year Betfair 12.5w

1 Point Win

longshotvalue · 12-03-2010 5:13pm

aidankkk wrote: »

19 POCKET TOO Sandown 4:05, Back over the right trip ground, signs of some return to form last time, won of a lot higher, 7lbs Passanger on this time no weight.. Betfair 32w 8.8pl

1 Point win 1 Point Place

:(:(:(:(:(:( lost by an inch, poor last jump...

thesandeman · 12-03-2010 5:13pm

Hard luck on Pocket. Great ew price still though.

Longshot Value, 100 bets

Comments