Longshot Value, 100 bets

the bolt

aidankkk wrote: »

Previously Advised running today

44. Courageous Cat Meyden 15:55 looks to have a decent draw, with the fav drawn wide, and 12.0 on betfair seems to big.

1 Point win..

14/1 With coral, Now 15.0 Betfair

43 Da Re Mi, Meyden Sheema Classic, Looks the best horse in the race, huge fan so maybe my opinion is coloured here, but bad draw has resulted in price going out to 11 on Betfair which cant be ignored, even with the draw, which shouldn't make as much of a differance over 1m4f.

2 Points win, Now 10.0 Betfair

42 Gio Ponti, Mayden World Cup, Best form in the race decent draw i recon he is overpriced at 7.6 on Betfair or better still 7/1 with Coral, should be about 4.5 - 5 about..

2 Points Win , Now 8.0 Betfair

CAN ANYONE TELL ME WHO WON THE 4.35,OK GOT RESULT ON PP,THANKS GOOD TIP

smelltheglove

Dar re mi won at 9/1
buena vista 2nd
spanish moon 3rd

Great tipping again aidan!!

longshotvalue

43 Da Re Mi, Meyden Sheema Classic, Looks the best horse in the race, huge fan so maybe my opinion is coloured here, but bad draw has resulted in price going out to 11 on Betfair which cant be ignored, even with the draw, which shouldn't make as much of a differance over 1m4f.

2 Points win, Now 10.0 Betfair


:DDelighted, huge fan, this one could win a lot of races this year.. ARC??

longshotvalue

47. Viscount Nelson Leop 4:05, going against one of my main rules in Flat, (lay all AOB runners first time out) but 10.0 on betfair is too big for this one, looks to have some of the best form in the race, and JM picks another runner, but he tend to pick ones with the better future prospects and can have plenty wrong early season.

1 Point win

longshotvalue

Story So Far after 46 bets

BSP + 88.72
Advised + 123.75

hurleronditch

Superb work aidan, keep em coming!!

floydmoon1

aidankkk wrote: »

47. Viscount Nelson Leop 4:05, going against one of my main rules in Flat, (lay all AOB runners first time out) but 10.0 on betfair is too big for this one, looks to have some of the best form in the race, and JM picks another runner, but he tend to pick ones with the better future prospects and can have plenty wrong early season.

1 Point win

is this the 3: 05

winslow

floydmoon1 wrote: »

is this the 3: 05

aidankkk wrote: »

47. Viscount Nelson Leop 4:05, going against one of my main rules in Flat, (lay all AOB runners first time out) but 10.0 on betfair is too big for this one, looks to have some of the best form in the race, and JM picks another runner, but he tend to pick ones with the better future prospects and can have plenty wrong early season.

1 Point win

4:05

hurleronditch

Second, ran well but never really looked like touching the winner, decent run though. Though you said win only he was 2.8 for the place on BF this morning so i did him e/w, thought it was a half decent price with 3 placing in a 9 runner field.

BF account was almost empty post cheltenham but thanks to aidan i have it back at a reasonable level.

You dont do a text service by any chance???cant get boards at work!!!

longshotvalue

48. Royal Rosa, Grand national, Betfair 280win 50 place. This one was a staying on 3rd over the national fences earlier this year over a shorter distance, but unfortunatly had a poor run since and is of 10:5 in the national, which is currently 10 horses short of getting in, but judging by betfair there are a few to come out, and should this one get in 50.0 to place will look huge considering previous form over long distances etc.

.5 point win 1 point place. Antepost

Im pretty sure if it gets in itll be 100/1 on the day and could easily be worth waiting for considering some of the place options that will be available with the bookies..

glanman

Is it refunded if its a NR?

longshotvalue

glanman wrote: »

Is it refunded if its a NR?

Nope, not on betfair, im not sure when the bookies will do non runner no bet.. The chances of not running are probably built into the price, im willing to loose my small bet to hopefully get a run at a huge price.. Rather than wait..

glanman

ya of course, makes sense!

glanman

aidankkk wrote: »

48. Royal Rosa, Grand national, Betfair 280win 50 place. This one was a staying on 3rd over the national fences earlier this year over a shorter distance, but unfortunatly had a poor run since and is of 10:5 in the national, which is currently 10 horses short of getting in, but judging by betfair there are a few to come out, and should this one get in 50.0 to place will look huge considering previous form over long distances etc.

.5 point win 1 point place. Antepost

Im pretty sure if it gets in itll be 100/1 on the day and could easily be worth waiting for considering some of the place options that will be available with the bookies..

Is now available at 450 on betfair. Volume is very low so is this the reason for price change? Any news on declarations and if it will make it?

longshotvalue

glanman wrote: »

Is now available at 450 on betfair. Volume is very low so is this the reason for price change? Any news on declarations and if it will make it?

didnt hear anything, i saw a number of horses yesterday out to 1000 and he needs about 10 to come out to get in, so i was hopeful enough, but hard to tell yet..

Verance

Royal Rosa is available at 150/1 on Bet365 with NR no bet and they're paying 5 places.

longshotvalue

Verance wrote: »

Royal Rosa is available at 150/1 on Bet365 with NR no bet and they're paying 5 places.

Thanks Verance that is the bet to go for. Ill have to have a piece of it..

longshotvalue

49. Officier De Reserve, Irish National, Only one run this year, altough he has left nichols, V Williams is as canny as they come, has run well over long distance in the ground, in the past on a higher mark, and of his mark carrying only 10:2 in this race he looks the best value..

Does Anyone know is there is Non runner no bet anywhere yet on this race??

33/1 EW Coral

1.5 Points Each Way with Coral

floydmoon1

aidankkk wrote: »

49. Officier De Reserve, Irish National, Only one run this year, altough he has left nichols, V Williams is as canny as they come, has run well over long distance in the ground, in the past on a higher mark, and of his mark carrying only 10:2 in this race he looks the best value..

Does Anyone know is there is Non runner no bet anywhere yet on this race??

33/1 EW Coral

1.5 Points Each Way with Coral

I dont seem to be able to get the exchange on betfair for this race.

longshotvalue

floydmoon1 wrote: »

I dont seem to be able to get the exchange on betfair for this race.

its under antepost/ire/fair 5th, ATM he is only 22 but id expect he'll go back out a bit as ther is very little in the market yet..

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

its under antepost/ire/fair 5th, ATM he is only 22 but id expect he'll go back out a bit as ther is very little in the market yet..

That market is pretty dead at the minute. Alpha Ridge went from 36 down to 8.2 and there was less than £1500 layed on it.

longshotvalue

50 Seradim 2:15 Kempt.. Looks overpriced to place at 7.4, not much between a lot of these on the form book.. Betfair 31w 7.4pl

1pt win 1pt place

mike65

Thats 3.15

longshotvalue

51 Prince De Beuchene Hayd 2:30. Looks fairly well treated and is sure to like the heavy ground, hasnt had too much racing this year, the trip should perfect. Betfair 11.5


1 Point win

smelltheglove

aidankkk wrote: »

50 Seradim 2:15 Kempt.. Looks overpriced to place at 7.4, not much between a lot of these on the form book.. Betfair 31w 7.4pl

1pt win 1pt place

gone from 16s out to 33s on bet365.....the horse doesnt know that tho lol

kopman83

Well done aidan another great win

kell77

aidankkk wrote: »

51 Prince De Beuchene Hayd 2:30. Looks fairly well treated and is sure to like the heavy ground, hasnt had too much racing this year, the trip should perfect. Betfair 11.5


1 Point win

Good call Aidan!

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

51 Prince De Beuchene Hayd 2:30. Looks fairly well treated and is sure to like the heavy ground, hasnt had too much racing this year, the trip should perfect. Betfair 11.5


1 Point win

Missed all the racing today , but happy with that.

Collie D

aidankkk wrote: »

Missed all the racing today , but happy with that.

For what you missed I did two horse bets today (I never usually back horses)...both were agianst yours, the first won and the other was just behind Prince du Beauchene...I'll read this thread before backing again...git

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

Missed all the racing today , but happy with that.

Nice winner Aiden.