Racing Post Money Printing Thread - Mod note post 1572

mike65 · 02-10-2009 06:12PM

Its only a loose if you bet on the nose, Hasty placeing at the advised price was about 7/3.

mike65 · 03-10-2009 08:47AM

Pricewise Tips – Saturday 3rd October 2009

2.40 Longchamp - Border Patrol Best Price 9/1 with Ladbrokes

3.40 Newmarket – Cambridgeshire - Almiqdaad Best Price 12/1 with Paddy Power

3.40 Newmarket – Cambridgeshire Sirvino Best price 10/1 with Paddy Power

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 10:30AM

mike65 wrote: »

Its only a loose if you bet on the nose, Hasty placeing at the advised price was about 7/3.

It wasnt advised each way though and if I want to keep an accurate record, it has to be what the tipster advised.

mike65 · 03-10-2009 10:32AM

Okay, I could never bet on the nose if its at e/w prices!

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 11:03AM

mike65 wrote: »

Okay, I could never bet on the nose if its at e/w prices!

Does that tactic work? The real Professionals hardly ever recommend each way. They see it as losing money because you could have 2 points on the win instead of 1 point ew. The exception being horses that finish strongly and are almost certain of a place.

mike65 · 03-10-2009 11:06AM

I have wondered more and more to be honest, yesterday it did cos I got twice my stake back but it could be (if I checked back) that I'm loosing more than I'm winning overall.

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 11:22AM

mike65 wrote: »

I have wondered more and more to be honest, yesterday it did cos I got twice my stake back but it could be (if I checked back) that I'm loosing more than I'm winning overall.

Like yourself I find it very hard to back a 20/1 chance straight but apparently it is the best tactic. The reason I think is because the Pros work on a real or theoretical Bank rather than a limitless amount of cash and expect to back winners. If you had a 20 point bank that would mean you could have 20 chances of backing a 20/1 winner and making a profit. If you have 1pt ew your chances drop to 10 and if you have .5pt ew you need more than one winner to show a profit.........

fintonie · 03-10-2009 11:33AM

any of the guys I listen to on the radio or tv if it 4/1 or better they back it EW to cover there stake.

makes pure sense to me, some of them will even back EW on a 3/1 shot

Seanohea · 03-10-2009 12:01PM

Hasty was advised e/w at 16/1, that's what Matt Williams advised. The profit from the place finish should be noted

Seanohea · 03-10-2009 12:02PM

Welter burden no barrier for classy Dream Lodge
Dream Lodge
2.40 Redcar
1pt win at 11-1 with Ladbrokes
The Redcar straight mile Final is totally lop-sided with one horse Dream Lodge having to give over a stone and half to all his rivals. However that is because he is a class or three above his opposition and even under his welter burden I think he will take a lot of beating this afternoon, writes Tom Segal.

RELATED LINKS

» Redcar 2.40 card

This horse has improved and improved since joining Richard Fahey and has absolutely everything in his favourtoday, bar his weight. Of course weight stops trains but his opposition really isn't up to much and under Freddie Tylicki I can see him winning this easily.

Two starts ago this horse was second in a Group 3 at York with horses like Perfect Stride and Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice miles behind. A repeat of that and he'd win this, big weight or no big weight.

Dream Lodge
Redcar - 14:40

-

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 12:04PM

fintonie wrote: »

any of the guys I listen to on the radio or tv if it 4/1 or better they back it EW to cover there stake.

makes pure sense to me, some of them will even back EW on a 3/1 shot

If you look at the top pros like Tom Segal or Hugh Taylor. Its a very rare event for Segal to bet ew and even Taylor usually only bets on the place to recover the stake, as in 3pts win 1 pt place etc. Mathematically it makes perfect sense. An exception is when you have a race where they 4/6 ....4/1.......10/1 bar then the obvious value bet is the 4/1 chance ew.

mike65 · 03-10-2009 12:06PM

Gowran Park 4:25 CHASE - Keys Pride is being backed off the boards 9/1

cmon Seanohea!

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 12:07PM

Seanohea wrote: »

Hasty was advised e/w at 16/1, that's what Matt Williams advised. The profit from the place finish should be noted

Apologies I missed that.

Seanohea · 03-10-2009 12:19PM

In-form Key's Pride can cause an upset at 11-1

Key's Pride
4.25 Gowran Park
1pt win at 11-1 with Ladbrokes
Small field conditions chases at this stage of the jumps season often throw up weird results and the Gowran Park Champion Chase might well be no different, writes Tom Segal.

RELATED LINKS

» Gowran Park 4.25 card

With Watson Lake and One Cool Cookie out, the race is much less competitive than looked likely and I'm keen to take on former Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition.

Dbest might not stay the trip and Conna Castle doesn't always find that much off the bridle and has a penalty to overcome. Consequently it could be worth chancing the in-form mare Key's Pride at a decent price. She was impressive at Listowel last time, will like the quick ground, goes well for Barry Geraghty and should have the race run to suit.

Keys Pride
Gowran Park - 16:25

Seanohea · 03-10-2009 12:22PM

Sorry about that, there was only one selection posted on pricewise extra section of the website at 12 and to a few mins after, they didnt put them up together, feckin annoying, missed the price on that

winslow · 03-10-2009 01:27PM

Seanohea wrote: »

Sorry about that, there was only one selection posted on pricewise extra section of the website at 12 and to a few mins after, they didnt put them up together, feckin annoying, missed the price on that

That happens occasionally, so I usually keep checking for about 15 mins or so after the first selection goes up.

essexman · 03-10-2009 01:47PM

Taken from "Betting on Flat Handicaps" by Jon Gibby :

"I bet EW at odds of 12/1 and over even though it reduces my profits. Although it sounds perverse I will continue to do so because I do not respond well to long losing runs, which affect my confidence. I know it sounds weak but I prefer to accept reduced profits in exchange for the security of each way betting ";)

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 03:36PM

essexman wrote: »

Taken from "Betting on Flat Handicaps" by Jon Gibby :

"I bet EW at odds of 12/1 and over even though it reduces my profits. Although it sounds perverse I will continue to do so because I do not respond well to long losing runs, which affect my confidence. I know it sounds weak but I prefer to accept reduced profits in exchange for the security of each way betting ";)

I think I will stick with Tom Segal when it comes to each way betting.

mike65 · 03-10-2009 03:54PM

Complete failure so far.

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 04:48PM

Correction
Pricewise Extra OctoberMonday-Friday ONLY
1 losers (MC)
1 placed (16/1-10/1) (MW)
0 winners
Present Sequence.......................2 losers
Profit/Loss@SP ..................Minus 0
[EMAIL="Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice"]Profit/Loss@Advised[/email]Price... PLUS 1.2pts

POINTBREAK · 03-10-2009 04:54PM

October
Pricewise Extra
Saturday and Sunday ONLY
2 losers (TS)
0 winners
Present Sequence 2 losers

[EMAIL="Profit/Loss@SP"]P[/email]rofit/Loss@SP............... Minus 2
Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice Minus 2
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tom Segal Pricewise Column
4 losers (TS)
0 winners
Present Sequence 4 losers

[EMAIL="Profit/Loss@SP"]P[/email]rofit/Loss@SP............... Minus 4
Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice Minus 4

mike65 · 04-10-2009 09:17AM

Pricewise Tips – Sunday 4th October 2009

12.45 Longchamp - War Artist Best Price 7/1 with Ladbrokes

4.45 Longchamp –Askar Tau Best Price 15/2 with Paddy Power

mike65 · 04-10-2009 12:05PM

PW-E

Tipp 5.30 - A Little Different 7/1 advised 13/2 right now

another may follow

curious guy · 04-10-2009 12:13PM

wrong place sorry

trader666 · 04-10-2009 12:38PM

something a little different got £1000 on at 8/1 between two firms, ...might have even been some 9`s if was quciker......
lets just hope this makes the start line..

i do beeliev tom seagull yield would be the best of the 4 tipsters if isolated him alone,, sure he runs at much higher yield in the xwise extra selections compeared to the other 3

trader666 · 04-10-2009 12:47PM

crazy odds now down to 7/2 from initial 8`s theres proberly a profit to made by a consistent campaign of laying the selections if they really crash....cant imageine coudl profit long run backing this at 7/2 as opposed to 8`s

curious guy · 04-10-2009 12:51PM

1000 each way bet or straight?

trader666 · 04-10-2009 12:52PM

straight win....but will be laying it off @5.5 range

trader666 · 04-10-2009 12:55PM

it amazes me each time watching the most back horse on the racing post website...12noon horse wasnt even on the boards...then 12.01pm its into the 600 bets placed...and couple mins 1000 past and now over 1400 bets on

curious guy · 04-10-2009 12:58PM

oh rite was gettin little anxious there for ya for a sec ...what would the turnover be there if ya dont mind me asking?

Racing Post Money Printing Thread - Mod note post 1572

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