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Time to do the Bulgarian Lotto?

2»

Comments

  • #52
    Quazzie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    Cool Mo D wrote: »
    But it doesn't matter what the numbers are - so you don't need to do any squaring.

    If you have two draws, and you want the odds of the second draw coming up with the same numbers as the first draw, the odds are the same as randomly selecting a winning ticket for one draw - about 1 in 13 million, as above. This could be any set of 6 numbers, it doesn't matter.

    If you pick out 6 numbers in advance, and then say you want these exact numbers to come up twice in a row, then you would have to square the odds above. In this case it is not enough to have the same numbers come up twice in a row, it must be a specific 6 numbers picked out before both draws.
    dsmythy wrote: »
    The odds of the same draw coming out twice on two particular weeks is quite high. But once one draw is done the chances of the next draw being the exact same is the same chance as someone picking the winning numbers.

    Yea we are thinking the same thing. Just different ways of saying it. I know statistically speaking the second draw (as will the next one and everyone after that) would have the same statistical chance of the set of numbers coming out. My question was the odds of them coming out twice.


  • #53
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Quazzie wrote: »
    Whats the difference?

    Because in the first draw a set of numbers has to come out, it doesn't matter what the set is, but a set will come out. Therefore it is 100% probable that a set of numbers will come out. It's only when you look at the probability of that specific set coming out again that it matters. The first draw is just selecting the numbers that you want to come out the next time. Using that selection on the second draw gives around 4 million to 1 from the article.

    The way you're thinking of it is a specific set coming out twice. Say you select the numbers 1-6. The odds of them coming out in the first draw are 4,000,000-1 and in the second draw are again 4,000,000-1, so you square the 4,000,000 for the probability that that specific set will come out twice in a row.


  • #54
    thebman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    So was there anyone who picks the same numbers each week entering for the draw both times with those numbers :D


  • #55
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    We can talk about maths and probability but then there's statistics. I remember looking at the longest run a certain ball went without being drawn. Every time that record was beaten it was only ever beaten by 1 or 2 draws. If you looked at the ball that hasn't been drawn out in the longest time and backed it every week with the bookies it'll usually be drawn out within the next 6 draws for you to make a profit overall.

    I checked this up a few years ago when they had lotto stats on their official website but I can't find those stats now.

    It's the same with the roulette. If the record number of recorded hits on the same ball is something like 27. When that record is broken it'll most likely only be by 1 or maybe 2.


  • #56
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Maybe some one put a tape of the weeks before draw on and nobody noticed.


  • #57
    logic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 938 ✭✭✭logic


    StraddleFor6 wrote: »
    I'm not interested in the odds of the same numbers coming out twice in a row.

    The fact that 18 people shared the jackpot the second time is bugging me. Any more on this? Is this being investigated?

    I think some one forgot to reset/change the numbers programmed to come out of that machine. 18 people playing last run numbers? Were they quick pick types? Of all of the possible combinations of numbers to come out

    49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 = 10,068,347,520 (correct me if I'm wrong here)

    they get the same one's as last week. Too suspicious imo.


  • #58
    G_R
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,028 Mod ✭✭✭✭G_R


    i just read over this thread and tried to make sense of it.

    Honest to god i now have a headache.


  • #59
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    could a moderator delete all the ridiculous posts in this thread.. :P

    as far as i can see, the odds of it happening twice are the same as picking the winning numbers. the first week was like buying the ticket and second week was the draw.

    you only square the odds if the lotto was setup that you had to pick the 6 numbers and win 2 draws ina row to get the money.

    /thread.


  • #60
    magicianz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    logic wrote: »
    I think some one forgot to reset/change the numbers programmed to come out of that machine. 18 people playing last run numbers? Were they quick pick types? Of all of the possible combinations of numbers to come out

    49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 = 10,068,347,520 (correct me if I'm wrong here)

    they get the same one's as last week. Too suspicious imo.

    You have to divide by 720 (6x5x4x3x2x1) because the balls can come out in any order. Yours is for a specific order.


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