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Time to do the Bulgarian Lotto?

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    #32
    witnessmenow
    Registered Users Posts: 7,022 ✭✭✭witnessmenow


    Quazzie wrote: »
    I meant the chances of it coming up twice.

    The odds of any 6 balls being drawn in a 49 ball lotto are 1 in 13983816.

    Does that mean the odds of it happeing twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2?

    No its not, the odds of any 6 balls coming out is 1/1, the odds of those 6 numbers being called a second time is the 1 in 13983816 if thats it

    It didn't mattter what the first set of numbers were.

    EG. What are the odds of you throwing a dice twice and the same number coming up?

    You dont care what the first number is so the odds of throwing that dice dont come into it. Lets say you throw it and get a "3"

    So you now have to throw the second dice and try get a "3". The odds of throwing a dice and getting a "3" is 1 in 6 . So in total the odds are 1 in 6



    This is not to be mistaken with what are the odds of you picking a number and throwing a dice twice and the number coming up, the odds of that are 1 in 36


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    #33
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,865 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    witnessmenow wrote: »
    No its not, the odds of any 6 balls coming out is 1/1, the odds of those 6 numbers being called a second time is the 1 in 13983816 if thats it

    It didn't mattter what the first set of numbers were.

    EG. What are the odds of you throwing a dice twice and the same number coming up?

    You dont care what the first number is so the odds of throwing that dice dont come into it. Lets say you throw it and get a "3"

    So you now have to throw the second dice and try get a "3". The odds of throwing a dice and getting a "3" is 1 in 6 . So in total the odds are 1 in 6



    This is not to be mistaken with what are the odds of you picking a number and throwing a dice twice and the number coming up, the odds of that are 1 in 36
    I don't think I'm making my self clear. But I think you answered by question anyways. The odds of picking the right numbers twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2.


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    #34
    walshb
    Registered Users Posts: 54,736 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    IvyTheTerrible wrote: »
    Yep: Look at this nice little explanation from Dr Math: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56585.html

    That's quite informative and detailed and succinct. I grasp it!

    So, the chances couldn't be 1/4000000 for the same numbers being drawn twice in a row.
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4


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    #35
    IvyTheTerrible
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,949 ✭✭✭✭IvyTheTerrible


    walshb wrote: »
    That's quite informative and detailed and succinct. I grasp it!

    So, the chances couldn't be 1/4000000 for the same numbers being drawn twice in a row.
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4

    Yeah. I think the rule is, if you want to know the prob of two independent events occuring (which two lottery draws are) you MULTIPLY the probabilities. But if they are dependent on each other you add.


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    #36
    magicianz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    Just did the calculations myself, chances i got for getting those 6 in any combination in 2 draws is 1 in 195,547,024,921,856

    I usually leave out a step in these things tho :-P


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    #37
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    walshb wrote: »
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4

    No, the odds for the first draw don't come into it.

    And it is like the coinflip, but you're mistaken about that again. The odds calling heads and flipping heads is 1/2. The odds on calling heads coming up twice, then flipping heads twice is 1/4.

    But, if you flip heads, then call heads, the odds on it coming up again are still 1/2.

    Put it like this. If we flipped a coin ten times and it came up heads every single time, then i put a bet on with you that heads would come up again if you gave me odds of 10/1, would you take it?


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    #38
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,865 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    magicianz wrote: »
    Just did the calculations myself, chances i got for getting those 6 in any combination in 2 draws is 1 in 220,363,693,007,704

    I usually leave out a step in these things tho :-P
    The real answer is in one of my previous posts


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    #39
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,228 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    Wazdakka wrote: »
    4, 8, 15, 16, and 42 all Dublin bus routes

    Coincidence?

    This is freaking me out. Seriously.

    And the one thats missing is 23. And what soccer player likes the number 23? David Beckham. This is an attempt my metrosexuals to rig draws of lotteries so they can fund the advertising campaigns to make us manly men wear mascara.

    No other plausible explanaition. If there is, I'd like to hear it.


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    #40
    walshb
    Registered Users Posts: 54,736 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Deleted User wrote: »
    No, the odds for the first draw don't come into it.

    And it is like the coinflip, but you're mistaken about that again. The odds calling heads and flipping heads is 1/2. The odds on calling heads coming up twice, then flipping heads twice is 1/4.

    But, if you flip heads, then call heads, the odds on it coming up again are still 1/2.

    Put it like this. If we flipped a coin ten times and it came up heads every single time, then i put a bet on with you that heads would come up again if you gave me odds of 10/1, would you take it?

    What I meant was, it's the odds from any draw, squared. As in, the odds of picking 6 is a certain number and the odds of those numbers coming up again consecutively with the first draw taken into consideration is that squared. Damn, I'm confused...:)

    Okay, if I want to know the chances of the same set of six numbers being picked twice in a row, it's the odds
    of picking one set, squared. 6 sided dice, odds of picking that number is 1/6. The odds of picking that number twice from two flips is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36


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    #41
    WeeBushy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭WeeBushy


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    This is freaking me out. Seriously.

    And the one thats missing is 23. And what soccer player likes the number 23? David Beckham. This is an attempt my metrosexuals to rig draws of lotteries so they can fund the advertising campaigns to make us manly men wear mascara.

    No other plausible explanaition. If there is, I'd like to hear it.

    That freaks me out aswell... I never knew the extent of David Beckham's control over the world.

    No wonder he chose to wear 23:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23_Enigma


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    #42
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    walshb wrote: »
    What I meant was, it's the odds from any draw, squared. As in, the odds of picking 6 is a certain number and the odds of those numbers coming up again consecutively with the first draw taken into consideration is that squared. Damn, I'm confused...:)

    Okay, if I want to know the chances of the same set of six numbers being picked twice in a row, it's the odds
    of picking one set, squared. 6 sided dice, odds of picking that number is 1/6. The odds of picking that number twice from two flips is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

    But only if you specifically want the first set to come up twice. The first set is basically irrelevant, it's just "selecting" what you want to come out next time.
    For a specific set of balls to come out twice in a row, yes the odds would be squared, but for any set to come out twice in a row it's just the basic odds.

    Let's take the coin flip for example, you want to know the odds of the same result happening twice in a row, so you flip the coin twice. Possible possibilities are TT, TH, HT and HH. 2 of those fulfill what you wanted, so the probability is 2/4 or 1/2. Same with rolling a dice twice, the chances of a specific number coming out twice is 1/36, but for any number to come out twice is 6/36 = 1/6.


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    #43
    deco05ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 161 ✭✭deco05ie


    Quazzie wrote: »
    I don't think I'm making my self clear. But I think you answered by question anyways. The odds of picking the right numbers twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2.
    But no one is ding this, you are only picking out numbers for one independent event

    If someone flips a coin 10 tens and gets tails every time and I decide to bet tails on the 11th flip my odds are still 50/50 because I'm betting on an independent event. But If at the start I made a bet that there would be 11 tails in a row I would have very small odds.


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    #44
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Was I dreaming or was there a case on one of the shows like winning streak where a man hit the jackpot on the wheel but it hadn't gone round 3 times. He spun it again and hit the jackpot again?


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    #45
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,865 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    deco05ie wrote: »
    But no one is ding this, you are only picking out numbers for one independent event

    If someone flips a coin 10 tens and gets tails every time and I decide to bet tails on the 11th flip my odds are still 50/50 because I'm betting on an independent event. But If at the start I made a bet that there would be 11 tails in a row I would have very small odds.


    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.


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    #46
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Quazzie wrote: »
    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.

    No, they're the odds of a specific set coming out twice.


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    #47
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,865 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    amacachi wrote: »
    No, they're the odds of a specific set coming out twice.
    Whats the difference?


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    #48
    Cool Mo D
    Registered Users Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    Quazzie wrote: »
    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.

    But it doesn't matter what the numbers are - so you don't need to do any squaring.

    If you have two draws, and you want the odds of the second draw coming up with the same numbers as the first draw, the odds are the same as randomly selecting a winning ticket for one draw - about 1 in 13 million, as above. This could be any set of 6 numbers, it doesn't matter.

    If you pick out 6 numbers in advance, and then say you want these exact numbers to come up twice in a row, then you would have to square the odds above. In this case it is not enough to have the same numbers come up twice in a row, it must be a specific 6 numbers picked out before both draws.


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    #49
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,509 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    The odds of the same draw coming out twice on two particular weeks is quite high. But once one draw is done the chances of the next draw being the exact same is the same chance as someone picking the winning numbers.


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    #50
    StraddleFor6
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭StraddleFor6


    I'm not interested in the odds of the same numbers coming out twice in a row.

    The fact that 18 people shared the jackpot the second time is bugging me. Any more on this? Is this being investigated?


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    #51
    wudangclan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭wudangclan


    Cool Mo D

    is your name some subliminal precursor to future modship?


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    #52
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,865 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    Cool Mo D wrote: »
    But it doesn't matter what the numbers are - so you don't need to do any squaring.

    If you have two draws, and you want the odds of the second draw coming up with the same numbers as the first draw, the odds are the same as randomly selecting a winning ticket for one draw - about 1 in 13 million, as above. This could be any set of 6 numbers, it doesn't matter.

    If you pick out 6 numbers in advance, and then say you want these exact numbers to come up twice in a row, then you would have to square the odds above. In this case it is not enough to have the same numbers come up twice in a row, it must be a specific 6 numbers picked out before both draws.
    dsmythy wrote: »
    The odds of the same draw coming out twice on two particular weeks is quite high. But once one draw is done the chances of the next draw being the exact same is the same chance as someone picking the winning numbers.

    Yea we are thinking the same thing. Just different ways of saying it. I know statistically speaking the second draw (as will the next one and everyone after that) would have the same statistical chance of the set of numbers coming out. My question was the odds of them coming out twice.


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    #53
    amacachi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Quazzie wrote: »
    Whats the difference?

    Because in the first draw a set of numbers has to come out, it doesn't matter what the set is, but a set will come out. Therefore it is 100% probable that a set of numbers will come out. It's only when you look at the probability of that specific set coming out again that it matters. The first draw is just selecting the numbers that you want to come out the next time. Using that selection on the second draw gives around 4 million to 1 from the article.

    The way you're thinking of it is a specific set coming out twice. Say you select the numbers 1-6. The odds of them coming out in the first draw are 4,000,000-1 and in the second draw are again 4,000,000-1, so you square the 4,000,000 for the probability that that specific set will come out twice in a row.


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    #54
    thebman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    So was there anyone who picks the same numbers each week entering for the draw both times with those numbers :D


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    #55
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    We can talk about maths and probability but then there's statistics. I remember looking at the longest run a certain ball went without being drawn. Every time that record was beaten it was only ever beaten by 1 or 2 draws. If you looked at the ball that hasn't been drawn out in the longest time and backed it every week with the bookies it'll usually be drawn out within the next 6 draws for you to make a profit overall.

    I checked this up a few years ago when they had lotto stats on their official website but I can't find those stats now.

    It's the same with the roulette. If the record number of recorded hits on the same ball is something like 27. When that record is broken it'll most likely only be by 1 or maybe 2.


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    #56
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Maybe some one put a tape of the weeks before draw on and nobody noticed.


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    #57
    logic
    Registered Users Posts: 938 ✭✭✭logic


    StraddleFor6 wrote: »
    I'm not interested in the odds of the same numbers coming out twice in a row.

    The fact that 18 people shared the jackpot the second time is bugging me. Any more on this? Is this being investigated?

    I think some one forgot to reset/change the numbers programmed to come out of that machine. 18 people playing last run numbers? Were they quick pick types? Of all of the possible combinations of numbers to come out

    49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 = 10,068,347,520 (correct me if I'm wrong here)

    they get the same one's as last week. Too suspicious imo.


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    #58
    G_R
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,025 Mod ✭✭✭✭G_R


    i just read over this thread and tried to make sense of it.

    Honest to god i now have a headache.


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    #59
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    could a moderator delete all the ridiculous posts in this thread.. :P

    as far as i can see, the odds of it happening twice are the same as picking the winning numbers. the first week was like buying the ticket and second week was the draw.

    you only square the odds if the lotto was setup that you had to pick the 6 numbers and win 2 draws ina row to get the money.

    /thread.


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    #60
    magicianz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    logic wrote: »
    I think some one forgot to reset/change the numbers programmed to come out of that machine. 18 people playing last run numbers? Were they quick pick types? Of all of the possible combinations of numbers to come out

    49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 = 10,068,347,520 (correct me if I'm wrong here)

    they get the same one's as last week. Too suspicious imo.

    You have to divide by 720 (6x5x4x3x2x1) because the balls can come out in any order. Yours is for a specific order.


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