Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Time to do the Bulgarian Lotto?

  • 17-09-2009 8:23am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,727 ✭✭✭✭


    bbc wrote:
    Bulgarian lottery repeat probed

    The chance of the same numbers appearing were one in four million
    The Bulgarian authorities have ordered an investigation after the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds of the national lottery.
    The numbers - 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 - were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September.
    An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible.
    A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million. But he said coincidences did happen.
    Minister of Physical Education and Sport Svilen Neykov said the commission established to investigate would provide answers towards the end of the week.
    The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order.
    Nobody won the top prize in the first draw.
    But a record 18 people guessed all six numbers in the 10 September draw.
    Each will win 10,164 leva (5,196 euros; $7,643).
    Link

    Same time, same place & same numbers next week guys.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,868 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    I think the clue is in the word, lottery. If it can happen, it will happen.
    Who is to say the numbers won't be drawn for a third time?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,811 ✭✭✭Gone Drinking


    5,196 euro? It'd be like rigging your local GAA draw.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    The odd of it happening have to be way more than 1 in 4million. That mathematician probably hasn't graduated from primary school. The odds of any six numbers coming out once is more than 1 in 4million never mind twice


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,239 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    That fecking Derren Brown fella again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    Did they come out in the same order both times?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,868 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Quazzie wrote: »
    The odd of it happening have to be way more than 1 in 4million. That mathematician probably hasn't graduated from primary school. The odds of any six numbers coming out once is more than 1 in 4million never mind twice
    I was thinking that too. Maybe some geek or nerd:) here can explain this better.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 58,456 ✭✭✭✭ibarelycare


    Did they come out in the same order both times?


    From the OP:
    The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    From the OP:
    I was too lazy to read the whole first post...its too early:o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    How many balls in the lotto?
    Ill work out odds

    Just under 14 million permutations of numbers in a 49 ball lottery so doing it twice.....my calculator only has so many places :-(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,811 ✭✭✭Gone Drinking


    magicianz wrote: »
    How many balls in the lotto?
    Ill work out odds

    If you couldn't work out how many balls there are in the lotto, from the original post.. i don't hold much hope for you working out the odds.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,949 ✭✭✭✭IvyTheTerrible


    Quazzie wrote: »
    The odd of it happening have to be way more than 1 in 4million. That mathematician probably hasn't graduated from primary school. The odds of any six numbers coming out once is more than 1 in 4million never mind twice

    Yep: Look at this nice little explanation from Dr Math: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56585.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    If you couldn't work out how many balls there are in the lotto, from the original post.. i don't hold much hope for you working out the odds.

    Balls total not just how many are drawn -.-'


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    Maybe there is only 6 balls in their lottery, chances would be good of the same ones coming out if it were.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,220 ✭✭✭✭biko


    4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 Bulgaria
    4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 Lost

    Coincidence? I think not!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭RoadKillTs


    Bloody foreigners!!
    If they are not taking our jobs they are committing fraud.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭witnessmenow


    Quazzie wrote: »
    The odd of it happening have to be way more than 1 in 4million. That mathematician probably hasn't graduated from primary school. The odds of any six numbers coming out once is more than 1 in 4million never mind twice

    I think your missing something though:

    The numbers coming out the first time round dont come into the probablity equation, its not like it had to be any of those numbers it could have been any combination of numbers.

    Then the probability of those 6 numbers coming up in the next draw is the same as the probability of a single lotto ticket

    Now the probability of you picking 6 numbers that comes up twice in a row is a different story!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Cianos


    Of all the lotto draws that happen in the world, each done every week or more, it's not that big a deal that this has happened.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,487 ✭✭✭banquo


    Surely the odds are 1 in 6, there being only 6 balls?

    /trolling


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    The numbers coming out the first time round dont come into the probablity equation, its not like it had to be any of those numbers it could have been any combination of numbers.
    +1. The numbers from the previous draw of no bearing on the next draw. Its just very unlikely the same ones will be pulled twice becuase the probablities involved are so high


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,606 ✭✭✭Carroller16


    Magnus wrote: »
    4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 Bulgaria
    4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 Lost

    Coincidence? I think not!


    Was just thinking that


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭Wazdakka


    Magnus wrote: »
    4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 Bulgaria
    4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 Lost

    Coincidence? I think not!

    4, 8, 15, 16, and 42 all Dublin bus routes

    Coincidence?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    Wazdakka wrote: »
    4, 8, 15, 16, and 42 all Dublin bus routes

    Coincidence?

    But no 23? The plot thickens...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭jj72


    Ammm...Seriously tho, why is the jackpot only 55,000 or so....Seems a wee bit teeny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    jj72 wrote: »
    Ammm...Seriously tho, why is the jackpot only 55,000 or so....Seems a wee bit teeny
    Because its Romania?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,727 ✭✭✭✭Sherifu


    Because its Romania?
    Really, read the OP. No. Really.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    I think your missing something though:

    The numbers coming out the first time round dont come into the probablity equation, its not like it had to be any of those numbers it could have been any combination of numbers.

    Then the probability of those 6 numbers coming up in the next draw is the same as the probability of a single lotto ticket

    Now the probability of you picking 6 numbers that comes up twice in a row is a different story!
    I meant the chances of it coming up twice.

    The odds of any 6 balls being drawn in a 49 ball lotto are 1 in 13983816.

    Does that mean the odds of it happeing twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2? or 1.9554711 × 10^14


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭DamoDLK


    Because its Romania?

    Dude, just because its Romania doesn't mean that they can't have... awh! right i get it..


    /leaves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭Signpost


    Simple explination: in a recession busting attempt rather than re-recording the show they just played the same one again thus cutting wages to 1 night per week!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭Flying Abruptly


    Sherifu wrote: »
    Really, read the OP. No. Really.
    Tomato, Tomatoe - Romania, Bulgaria :D


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,159 ✭✭✭✭phasers


    Their lotto is worth feck all anyway


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭witnessmenow


    Quazzie wrote: »
    I meant the chances of it coming up twice.

    The odds of any 6 balls being drawn in a 49 ball lotto are 1 in 13983816.

    Does that mean the odds of it happeing twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2?

    No its not, the odds of any 6 balls coming out is 1/1, the odds of those 6 numbers being called a second time is the 1 in 13983816 if thats it

    It didn't mattter what the first set of numbers were.

    EG. What are the odds of you throwing a dice twice and the same number coming up?

    You dont care what the first number is so the odds of throwing that dice dont come into it. Lets say you throw it and get a "3"

    So you now have to throw the second dice and try get a "3". The odds of throwing a dice and getting a "3" is 1 in 6 . So in total the odds are 1 in 6



    This is not to be mistaken with what are the odds of you picking a number and throwing a dice twice and the number coming up, the odds of that are 1 in 36


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    No its not, the odds of any 6 balls coming out is 1/1, the odds of those 6 numbers being called a second time is the 1 in 13983816 if thats it

    It didn't mattter what the first set of numbers were.

    EG. What are the odds of you throwing a dice twice and the same number coming up?

    You dont care what the first number is so the odds of throwing that dice dont come into it. Lets say you throw it and get a "3"

    So you now have to throw the second dice and try get a "3". The odds of throwing a dice and getting a "3" is 1 in 6 . So in total the odds are 1 in 6



    This is not to be mistaken with what are the odds of you picking a number and throwing a dice twice and the number coming up, the odds of that are 1 in 36
    I don't think I'm making my self clear. But I think you answered by question anyways. The odds of picking the right numbers twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,868 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Yep: Look at this nice little explanation from Dr Math: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56585.html

    That's quite informative and detailed and succinct. I grasp it!

    So, the chances couldn't be 1/4000000 for the same numbers being drawn twice in a row.
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,949 ✭✭✭✭IvyTheTerrible


    walshb wrote: »
    That's quite informative and detailed and succinct. I grasp it!

    So, the chances couldn't be 1/4000000 for the same numbers being drawn twice in a row.
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4

    Yeah. I think the rule is, if you want to know the prob of two independent events occuring (which two lottery draws are) you MULTIPLY the probabilities. But if they are dependent on each other you add.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭magicianz


    Just did the calculations myself, chances i got for getting those 6 in any combination in 2 draws is 1 in 195,547,024,921,856

    I usually leave out a step in these things tho :-P


  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 5,869 [Deleted User]


    walshb wrote: »
    It's the odds for the first draw, squared

    Exactly like the coin flip, chance is 1/2, but to get two heads in a row from two flips is 1/2 x 1/2 =1/4

    No, the odds for the first draw don't come into it.

    And it is like the coinflip, but you're mistaken about that again. The odds calling heads and flipping heads is 1/2. The odds on calling heads coming up twice, then flipping heads twice is 1/4.

    But, if you flip heads, then call heads, the odds on it coming up again are still 1/2.

    Put it like this. If we flipped a coin ten times and it came up heads every single time, then i put a bet on with you that heads would come up again if you gave me odds of 10/1, would you take it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    magicianz wrote: »
    Just did the calculations myself, chances i got for getting those 6 in any combination in 2 draws is 1 in 220,363,693,007,704

    I usually leave out a step in these things tho :-P
    The real answer is in one of my previous posts


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,239 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    Wazdakka wrote: »
    4, 8, 15, 16, and 42 all Dublin bus routes

    Coincidence?

    This is freaking me out. Seriously.

    And the one thats missing is 23. And what soccer player likes the number 23? David Beckham. This is an attempt my metrosexuals to rig draws of lotteries so they can fund the advertising campaigns to make us manly men wear mascara.

    No other plausible explanaition. If there is, I'd like to hear it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,868 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    No, the odds for the first draw don't come into it.

    And it is like the coinflip, but you're mistaken about that again. The odds calling heads and flipping heads is 1/2. The odds on calling heads coming up twice, then flipping heads twice is 1/4.

    But, if you flip heads, then call heads, the odds on it coming up again are still 1/2.

    Put it like this. If we flipped a coin ten times and it came up heads every single time, then i put a bet on with you that heads would come up again if you gave me odds of 10/1, would you take it?

    What I meant was, it's the odds from any draw, squared. As in, the odds of picking 6 is a certain number and the odds of those numbers coming up again consecutively with the first draw taken into consideration is that squared. Damn, I'm confused...:)

    Okay, if I want to know the chances of the same set of six numbers being picked twice in a row, it's the odds
    of picking one set, squared. 6 sided dice, odds of picking that number is 1/6. The odds of picking that number twice from two flips is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭WeeBushy


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    This is freaking me out. Seriously.

    And the one thats missing is 23. And what soccer player likes the number 23? David Beckham. This is an attempt my metrosexuals to rig draws of lotteries so they can fund the advertising campaigns to make us manly men wear mascara.

    No other plausible explanaition. If there is, I'd like to hear it.

    That freaks me out aswell... I never knew the extent of David Beckham's control over the world.

    No wonder he chose to wear 23:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23_Enigma


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    walshb wrote: »
    What I meant was, it's the odds from any draw, squared. As in, the odds of picking 6 is a certain number and the odds of those numbers coming up again consecutively with the first draw taken into consideration is that squared. Damn, I'm confused...:)

    Okay, if I want to know the chances of the same set of six numbers being picked twice in a row, it's the odds
    of picking one set, squared. 6 sided dice, odds of picking that number is 1/6. The odds of picking that number twice from two flips is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

    But only if you specifically want the first set to come up twice. The first set is basically irrelevant, it's just "selecting" what you want to come out next time.
    For a specific set of balls to come out twice in a row, yes the odds would be squared, but for any set to come out twice in a row it's just the basic odds.

    Let's take the coin flip for example, you want to know the odds of the same result happening twice in a row, so you flip the coin twice. Possible possibilities are TT, TH, HT and HH. 2 of those fulfill what you wanted, so the probability is 2/4 or 1/2. Same with rolling a dice twice, the chances of a specific number coming out twice is 1/36, but for any number to come out twice is 6/36 = 1/6.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 161 ✭✭deco05ie


    Quazzie wrote: »
    I don't think I'm making my self clear. But I think you answered by question anyways. The odds of picking the right numbers twice in a row are 1 in 13983816^2.
    But no one is ding this, you are only picking out numbers for one independent event

    If someone flips a coin 10 tens and gets tails every time and I decide to bet tails on the 11th flip my odds are still 50/50 because I'm betting on an independent event. But If at the start I made a bet that there would be 11 tails in a row I would have very small odds.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Was I dreaming or was there a case on one of the shows like winning streak where a man hit the jackpot on the wheel but it hadn't gone round 3 times. He spun it again and hit the jackpot again?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    deco05ie wrote: »
    But no one is ding this, you are only picking out numbers for one independent event

    If someone flips a coin 10 tens and gets tails every time and I decide to bet tails on the 11th flip my odds are still 50/50 because I'm betting on an independent event. But If at the start I made a bet that there would be 11 tails in a row I would have very small odds.


    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Quazzie wrote: »
    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.

    No, they're the odds of a specific set coming out twice.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,210 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    amacachi wrote: »
    No, they're the odds of a specific set coming out twice.
    Whats the difference?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    Quazzie wrote: »
    But what I said originally said was what are the odds of the same numbers coming out twice.

    But it doesn't matter what the numbers are - so you don't need to do any squaring.

    If you have two draws, and you want the odds of the second draw coming up with the same numbers as the first draw, the odds are the same as randomly selecting a winning ticket for one draw - about 1 in 13 million, as above. This could be any set of 6 numbers, it doesn't matter.

    If you pick out 6 numbers in advance, and then say you want these exact numbers to come up twice in a row, then you would have to square the odds above. In this case it is not enough to have the same numbers come up twice in a row, it must be a specific 6 numbers picked out before both draws.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,522 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    The odds of the same draw coming out twice on two particular weeks is quite high. But once one draw is done the chances of the next draw being the exact same is the same chance as someone picking the winning numbers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭StraddleFor6


    I'm not interested in the odds of the same numbers coming out twice in a row.

    The fact that 18 people shared the jackpot the second time is bugging me. Any more on this? Is this being investigated?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭wudangclan


    Cool Mo D

    is your name some subliminal precursor to future modship?


  • Advertisement
Advertisement