Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

UPDATE _ Thursday, 2 July, 09 _ 0445h
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Just preparing the forecast but as to current situation, one line of heavy thunderstorms has recently moved north through Dublin and districts about as far west as Athlone, and this is gradually weakening, but another strong line of storms appears to be developing over Wicklow and Carlow, moving generally north towards Dublin, and could be as severe when it arrives around 0630-0730. Will give a more comprehensive forecast about 0520, looks like potential for serious urban flooding today with more activity possible even further into the day.

Thursday, 2 July, 2009
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TODAY will continue very unsettled in the eastern two-thirds of Ireland, although some west coast districts could break into sunshine for a while. There will be several more waves of heavy thundery showers or even torrential rain especially around Wicklow and Dublin, and some distance west into central Ireland. Rainfall amounts of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) will create some urban and stream flooding. Between showers, it may brighten for a while and warm up to 22-24 C but in the heavy rain it will be about 19 C. I'm sure it will feel like a sauna with the high humidity. Watch for updates as we attempt to track the incoming heavier cells (there is quite a conveyor belt of them from Biscay across Cornwall and southwest Wales into eastern Ireland).

Some southern and western districts may see a bit more sunshine and less rain although few places will be absolutely dry today.

TONIGHT there could be more heavy thundery showers with lows near 18 C in the east, 14 C in the west and north.

FRIDAY, another separate system of heavy showers and thunderstorms will approach from the southwest during the morning and move across Ireland slowly during the day, leading to more heavy and possibly flooding rainfalls of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) locally. Highs will be about 21-22 C but with high humidity it will feel like about 25-27 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT will continue stormy with stronger winds developing from the south then southwest (20-35 mph) and possibly some hail at times in the sporadic thundery showers.

SATURDAY will become a bit brighter and fresher with continued widespread thundery showers, some with hail. Winds will be southwest at about 25-40 mph and some strong gusts are possible in some showers. Morning lows will be around 13 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers mainly across the north and central districts, lows of 8-11 C and highs near 17 C.

NEXT WEEK looks a lot less humid than this week has been, with some rather cool temperatures at times, and passing showers but also longer dry spells.

UPDATE _ Thursday, 9 pm
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Overnight, heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue in parts of Mayo, Galway and possibly a little further east and south at times. These will eventually move over parts of Donegal and far northern NI. Otherwise, the country will remain fairly dry, although misty and humid, with the exception of a few showers in the southeast that we will monitor just in case ... currently not expecting these to repeat last night's onslaught, but there could be a rumble or two and 3-5 mms of rain from them. Will certainly update if this changes.

As to Friday, things are on track for development of a fairly intense cluster of showers and thunderstorms that you can see quite clearly on the satellite imagery out around 17 W at present, moving steadily towards Kerry and likely to make landfall around 0500 in the southwest, then spread gradually to other parts of south-central Ireland through the morning hours. There may be additional shower activity forming further east ahead of this by then, but the main band of heavy rain and possibly intense thunderstorm development should be crossing Ireland during the day and could reach Dublin by about the afternoon rush hour. Stay tuned, it's going to be a pretty active couple of days, as the atmosphere remains quite unstable on Saturday with the likelihood of further locally heavy showers and storms.

UPDATE _ 5:30 pm Friday
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It now appears that Dublin escaped the rather limited wrath of the first wave of showers and thundershowers, these have moved further northeast and are now rather weak around Louth. More active showers that look like they could have a small amount of hail with them, are moving inland from coastal Clare and Galway, and may reach north-central parts of Ireland this evening, then into Northern Ireland. If these begin to expand more of a line to the south as they travel northeast, the tail end of the showers may possibly reach Dublin around late evening, say 10 pm to midnight. It should be a relatively fine evening until then, if not all the way through to Saturday morning. However, there are some showers developing over the hills southwest of Dublin and these could give a few raindrops or even a brief sharper downpour in Dublin around 7 pm, not everyone in the Dublin region will see these as they are quite limited in area.

Another wave of showers can be seen approaching southwest Ireland for later this evening and will probably bring a fairly widespread rainfall of 5-10 mms late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are beginning to increase from the south along the west coast now, in advance of a trough of low pressure located near 15 W.

More updates as required.

Well believe it or not I stayed in Listowel (at a B & on my one trip to Ireland in 1978, so I know it's up towards the north of Kerry. In general, I don't think it will be that bad, it might not even be thundery until it moves further inland, but you can see there are two or three lines of showers waiting to sweep in tonight, so it should be clearing up there in the morning for a while after these move through. I'm going to say blustery at times but nothing too exceptional. Could get rougher as these lines move further east and redevelop in the daytime heating Saturday morning.

Saturday, 4 July, 2009
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Alert for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms in various parts of Ireland today and tomorrow, some places could see minor flooding from 30 mms of rain ... but amounts will be quite variable.

TODAY will start out cloudy with light showers in the east, heavier showers in central and western regions, and these could begin to turn thundery as they slowly move further east. In between these semi-organized bands of rain the sun could make brief appearances, and highs will be near 17 C. The south coast will have winds of about 20-35 mph from the south, elsewhere, winds will not be too strong except for the odd gust to 35 mph near heavy showers perhaps. Watch for updates as there could be some locally very heavy showers or storms by mid-day.

TONIGHT will continue partly to mostly cloudy with further showers, strong southerly to SW'ly breezes, and a somewhat cooler feel to the overnight low of about 9-11 C.

SUNDAY will produce yet another round of heavy showers and thundershowers, some with hail, as freezing levels will be much lower (down to about 12,000 ft) ... highs may stall at about 13-15 C in many parts and once again there may be a few locations seeing torrential showers at times. There will also be brief sunny intervals. Winds will tend to drop off in the northern half of the country as a slack gradient moves across in association with low pressure, but the south coast will remain breezy all day.

MONDAY will be a cool, mostly cloudy day with more showers although a tendency to lower rainfall amounts (2-4 mms for many). Winds will swing around gradually to WNW 20-30 mph and the temperature range will be narrow from morning lows near 7 C to afternoon highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY currently look a little on the chilly side especially for the eastern half of Ireland more exposed to a developing northerly wind that will really hit the UK more noticeably, and leave the west coast of Ireland almost unscathed. This may make for an east-west contrast of cloud and drizzle in the east, sunny intervals and slightly warmer daytime temperatures in the west. Highs both days should range from 14 C in Ulster to around 19 C in the west. Morning lows everywhere should be around 6-8 C.

LATER IN THE WEEK a rather weak ridge of high pressure may bring dry if not particularly sunny weather, with near average July temperatures near 18 to 20 C daytime. A slight warming trend may follow although there are no strong indications of anything very warm for several weeks on any computer guidance, however unreliable it may be (so perhaps to hope it is unreliable then :cool: )

Given my insatiable need for sleep at least once every 24 hours, I pass the baton to whoever would like to be in charge of watching the radar etc ... so far it looks as though the inland southwest has seen 10-15 mms of rain in many spots with the semi-organized trough now around Limerick to east of Cork.

UPDATE _ Saturday 4th, 6:30 pm
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Possible heavy and thundery showers around Galway this evening, and a scattering of less active showers in other western counties and the southeast. Some of these latter may reach Dublin by 8 pm but so far nothing too heavy indicated there. Later tonight the general trend will be for the western showers to reach the eastern half of Ireland, and a new wave of showers to hit the southwest after midnight. Some areas in between could clear out and become rather foggy at times. Tomorrow still looks quite unsettled with potential for hail and thunder in the afternoon.

Always present, I'm sure ... in fact it would be more frequent in a cooler summer climatic regime than the present time (because it's mostly caused by lower freezing levels in the atmosphere). Up to a point, when the ice age was in full swing I imagine your summers were about like they have now in northern Iceland. Large hail might show an increase with a warmer climate, but all sizes of hail, probably it would peak in a climate like the Little Ice Age, 2-3 deg cooler than nowadays.