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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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I posted this in the general chat but the accumulated totals between now and this time next week are similar on both GFS and ECM. It's not just heavy thundery showers making up these totals either. Monday is maybe more showery but Tuesday and Thursday it's looking like lighter, persistent rain and Friday is looking like heavy persistent rain in late afternoon (based on current models).
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A very zonal westerly setup looks certain for the remainder of July with average or slightly cooler than average temperatures and plenty of rain or showers. The GFS 00z has a lovely Azores high sitting over us by the end but this is very much an outlier. Hopefully within the next week we will see another spell of 3 to 4 settled days developing before the end of July.
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Not the sort of ensemble you want to be seeing in the middle of Summer, an overall cooling trend and things staying wet and unsettled from start to finish. Once we get the warmish air out of the way by Saturday we're into a cool north-westerly pancake flow from the Atlantic for the forseeable future. I hope we see a more positive change develop next week, that this isn't summer going down the tubes.
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For the sunny south-east the next few days don't look all that sunny.
A good chance of rain over the next few days up until the 22nd of July. After that we are into the unreliable timeframe so alot of scatter in the models. However the one change I see in the unreliable timeframe is a move to dryer conditions. The 00z and all of yesterdays output was definitely wetter than this from start to finish. There is also a hint that temperatures may pick up briefly between the 24th and 26th of June, possibly early signs of a brief push of warm air again.
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I don't know Gonzo, ECM is going for decent amounts of sunshine for the SE all this week and next week. GEM is backing that up too. It won't be clear blue skies for sure, there's plenty of precipitation in the coming week but the following week looks relatively dry with plenty of sunny spells (using Rosslare as location here).
The dark blue line here is the average of the ECM ensembles showing approx. 11 hours of sunshine per day for next weekend and beyond, and the second graph showing little amounts of precipitation for the same period. This is specific to Rosslare though, the rest of the country could be completely different.
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A definite trend towards higher pressure from mid week, best farther south and east but not bad nationwide. Tentative signs towards this being a longer lasting spell of more settled weather for the south at least, from this flexing Azores ridge.
Gfs 18z is very August 22 esque. One of my favourite months of all time.
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The models today are following the trend of the last 36 hours… Flat
Ecmwf, Ecm ai and Gfs are largely similar at day 7
The ECM makes the most of the Azores high giving more settled weather further south, but still not much good for the North which has a low near Iceland. This low is seen on all three op runs.
The Gfs ensembles are ok with a fair amount of runs bringing the Azores ridge further North next week.
These locations Carrick on Shannon and Wexford, are indicative of a North/ South split, similar to what was often seen this June.
All and all it’s an alright outlook, certainly nothing special but not a washout. Hopefully we see the trend we had a few days ago return with more influential high pressure. ☀️ ☀️
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First time looking at the model runs for a bit and it's not looking great for the bank holiday on ECM. The next week looks decent but nothing special. Drier at least but temperatures just about getting to 20 in places and cloud aplenty. ECM showing a low pressure system over us for most of the long weekend though with no shortage of rain. GFS wants to bring some of the Azores high our way but given our August trends and ECM being the form horse I'd be leaning towards that for the moment. Hopefully the outcome improves during the week.
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definitely a bit of a warming trend starting to appear on the GFS for late July into the first week of August. I hope the models so not backtrack on this with high pressure possibly becoming more dominant in about a weeks time. Overall a relatively dry graph, only light rain or showers here and there.
10 days out and not much rainfall over the next week and a half
Over 2 weeks away and rainfall totals barely change.
Could we be in for a very good first week of August including the bank holiday weekend? Time will tell but so far looking promising. This would make a very positive change for the start of August.
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Another steady day from the models with high pressure in our vicinity as we head towards the last month of meteorological summer.
This week the high will be just a small bit out of touch to keep things totally settled but not a whole lot of rain to come for most with the Nw the most changeable.
Unusually there is quite a bit of confidence for the huge area of high pressure to move closer, settling things down further.
Some Gfs ensemble members go off the walls with the high and break our August high pressure record, which stands at 1036hpa.
With all this high pressure we could likely see heat build day on day, especially if the high continues its journey east.
All and all a decent week of weather coming up with the potential for a lovely first half of August more than alive.☀️☀️27 -
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