FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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GFS 12z not looking pretty for next week, low pressure for Monday into Tuesday with wind and rain especially for western areas followed by another low pressure for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures mid to high teens at best.
If this verifies make the most of the fine and warm weather over the next few days. Hopefully this return of the Atlantic after a short fine spell is a temporary one and we see another push from the azores high later in June.
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GEM 12z couldn't be more different than the GFS 12z.
Yes we turn a bit cooler and unsettled from Monday but then by Wednesday we get a blowtorch southerly pumping up some very hot air once again.
chalk and cheese between the GFS and GEM for next week. Which scenario will happen?
I reckon both models are outliers.
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A fairly clear trend from the GFS ensembles, a heat spike over the weekend, more so for England but Ireland will still see temperatures up to 25C particularly on Sunday and Monday. Turns much cooler from late Monday into Tuesday with a cool spell lasting most of next week. Second week of July has potential to turn warmer again. Nothing overly wet showing in the models.
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Take it with a pinch of salt for now but CFSv2 going with a classic warm and dry July pattern with a strong positive height anomaly right over us and slightly to the east, would draw the wind often from a southeasterly direction which is our hottest direction. I'd say this would compete with our hottest Julys such as 1983, 1989, 2006 and 2013 if it were to verify.
Would be something to see a July like this after such a warm and sunny spring as all of the springs in the years named above were rather cold and unsettled for the most part aside from May 1989.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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If we're going to break the record I'd like a clean break of it with at least a 34.0C!
Back to the near distant future a big shift in the GFS towards things warming up in the second week of July and settling down. Take this with a huge grain of salt for now.
High pressure anchored over us for at least a week with mid to high twenties, one can only dream.
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Could we have a change in fortune for the 2nd week in July?
According to ECM and GFS there looks to be some support for a more settled spell with high pressure close by. We are still looking outside the reliable but this trend has been gathering traction in the last few days. Also, seasonal models have been pointing this way for some time now.
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that would be great if it did, the only real change I'm seeing in our climate is that our winters are definitely overall getting milder with snow harder and harder to come by each winter. Another thing I've noticed is our dryer periods have become more common and they can last quite a while as well. As for our summers we are still for the most part struggling to reach 30C or more on a widespread scale outside of the exceptional summers like 1976, 1995, 2018, 2022 etc. However low twenties is becoming noticeably more common especially in eastern and southern areas through the summer months.
To get 34C or more in this country we would probably need the +25C uppers sitting over us for a few hours early to mid afternoon in the middle/end of July, unbroken sunshine and a very gentle south-easterly breeze that's barely noticeable, something that's almost impossible to achieve. This combined with our geography is why we have the oldest temperature record in Europe going back to the 1800s.
Pity the above chart doesn't show the year.
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