Tesla Talk 2

And do you think that's where it was directed to park? Certainly looked that way from the video and the door everyone came out of, hardly worth nit picking about that?

Wasn't aware it was being remotely monitored. Thanks for sharing!

I had to laugh when kim java / liketesla was in the robotaxi and there was still phantom braking. Even in the US. I've been watching the comparison videos where the early access robotaxi person gets the robotaxi and someone else gets a waymo on the rame route. It is night and day, as expected.

The difference is, the waymo isn't going to be hampered by sunrise, rain etc.

just wait for FSD v14. Dojo and Colossus is going to weave some amazing end to end neural nets. Phantom braking will be fixed once and for all!😂

It's been 6 years since I saw my first phantom braking, in a loaner S LR, running AP2.5. Crazy how they have not fixed this.

In the time since I drove that S, the Tesla system now is still worse than it was then, as radar was removed and performance still has not recovered to what it was then.

To be honest, I'd still take an AP1 car over later one if I was choosing, since Elon can't put his grubby hands over AP1 too much

The current robotaxi fsd is geofenced.

Humans obviously don't use lidar. But try and drive with only your eyes, remove sound, sense, gravity, etc. How do you hear an emergency vehicle upcoming? Or adjust for the wind when passing a truck? Or hear a young child about to run on to the road? Or even simpler, hear the beeping of a horn?

We drive in 3 dimensions, not two. We have multiple inputs, not just vision. Some are conscious like sound and others are somewhat subconscious, like the effect of gravity. I said it the day they changed to tesla vision, and I stick with it, you cannot have level 5 drive anywhere FSD/robotaxi/whatever other name, where it can pick me up at the pub and drive me home, without multiple inputs, including at least one of radar or lidar. Level 5, no steering wheel, no remote monitoring, no insurance required for the driver (insurance covered by oem or operator like waymo).

My criticisms are in the context of FSD being promised for 10 years. Not in 10 days of a trial.

How is it disingenuous, people have paid for this software for 6-8 years without being able to use it. You can't just arbitrarily decide that today is day 0

I don't think Elm has ever said vision doesn't work but rather it doesn't work 100% of the time which is what's required.

Yet if you goto reddit there are lots of us folk that gush about fsd

I think that's very very optimistic. It will be an extreme pareto. Vision can do 80-85-90% of the FSD functions perfectly and much cheaper than lidar or radar hardware. Especially with all the machine learning that tesla are using. However that last 20-15-10% or less will be very very difficult to get with vision only.

I used to be an optimist but when it comes to tesla, not only is my glass not half full or half empty, it's exploded.

Joe public can't buy a robotaxi either.

Waymo is light years ahead of the current tesla self driving. Other companies are further down the no driver/hands off autonomous driving now, think of GM and Ford in the US with bluecruise and supercruise. Mercedes in Germany have some limited hands off too.

Currently however, other than the waymo cabs and a limited test by Mercedes, no other company has a self driving car where the user of the car is not classed as a driver and the insurance is covered by the OEM.

When fully self driving teslas are sold to the public, level 5, with no legal driver required and insurance covered by the OEM, then it's a fair comparison.

I feel like this debate goes in circles constantly.

Some people do not understand how much Musk has kneecapped Tesla's FSD ambitions by going the camera-only route. The limited onboard hardware resources for real-time inference, and the lack supporting hardware(radar, lidar) to reduce computationally expensive inference of objects shape, distance and velocity. And that's before we even talk about limitations of current model limits due to their inability to generalise.

There's a concept named Moravec's paradox which observes that it's relatively easy to make computers perform at an adult level, and even excel to a super intelligence level on rule based tests or playing complex games like chess or go(see AlphaGo), and impossible for humans to match that speed and accuracy. So essentially computers excel at rule based logical operations.

On the other hand, it's extremely difficult to give computers the skills of a 1 or 2 year old when it comes to perception and mobility, such as picking up an object because humans had millions of years of evolution to continuously improve sensorimotor skills. These abilities are so intrinsic for humans that they are largely unconscious. We don't need to think about the complex physics of balance and coordination to walk across a room, we just do it. When we pick up an object, our brain instantly processes a huge amount of sensory data. It takes in visual information such as an object's shape, size, location, tactile feedback from your fingers such as texture, pressure, temperature, and proprioceptive data (which is knowing where your hand is in space). A computer needs to be programmed with complex algorithms and equipped with numerous sensors to even begin to replicate what we percieve as a simple act. 

To do all of this at a real, fully automous level, a model would need to generalise(AGI) and have multisensor inputs, and do all this with limited onboard resources.

Tesla do not sell any cars capable of 'self driving' right now. They sell cars with driver assists branded as FSD, EAP, AP, etc.

GM and Ford sell cars in the US that are legally capable of self driving. Bluecruise and supercruise (eg check out the latest cadillac) offer hands off self driving on geofenced roads. Ford bluecruise is even available as hands off in the UK. Now, *IMHO*, that doesn't qualify as self driving either, because the insurance is not covered by the OEM and you can't be drunk in charge etc. Mercedes has a limited pilot of self driving where the OEM covers the insurance, however you still need a driver as it is level 3-4 and not level 5 .

Self driving means no one in the driver's seat, and no company currently sells that. Mercedes, GM and Ford are closer than other car companies in terms of current purchaseable options, and Waymo are ahead of other companies in terms of products in the market.