Tesla Talk 2

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571409#Comment_123571409

Grids and lights definitely much simpler than the roads here.

Here's a roundabout example, wouldn't fancy driving that one myself.

https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1923365516489478596?t=SIQuPSfDwnbJ4Hcz64qtyg&s=19

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571409#Comment_123571409

You haven't seen videos of testing in Amsterdam, Paris and Rome? Arc de Triumph features in Paris one. Bikes everywhere in Amsterdam one. General chaos in Rome one.

Roundabouts are mostly quite orderly.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571409#Comment_123571409

If you have enough cameras you can create a 3D image, as long as they can see clearly you can get the car to navigate around that created image. Lidar and Radar don't have that capability quite as much

DrPsychia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571892#Comment_123571892

Lidar, radar to a lesser extent, are by far the best sensors for mapping 3D space. Adding more cameras and trying to infer 3D space from 2D 'image' with no distance meta data is computationally intensive, and much less reliable. This has been empirically shown in published studies.

as long as they can see clearly

Again, this is part of them problem. Camera-only systems require pristine conditions - no glare, no rain, no fog, no dirt or oil on the camera glass, but these single sensor systems are unable to accurately infer distance repeatedly and consistently.
Autonomous driving needs redundancy, that means a multi-sensor approach. Even Waymo has not solved it yet despite their multi-sensor approach and beefier onboard compute. They still rely on remote operators when the system doesn't know what to do.

Autopilot distance control is not reliable. Some days the max distance setting is too close to the car in front, other days it might be acceptable - there's no consistency. My other car with radar is absolutely reliable in that regard, repeatable results day after day. I was watching a livestream from Bjorn Nyland a few days ago when he was testing MY Juniper, even a tesla fan like him said autopilot was jerky and not as good compared to his old Model S that had radar - that's not progress.

Then there's another problem; Musk drones on about Dojo etc but the reality is that these onboard image machine vision models require more compute for inference when trained on more parameters. It's all good training FSD/Autopilot on these massive supercomputer clusters but scaling it down for relatively small onboard computer like Hardware 3/4 is impossible. We see this when Autopilot/FSD gets better in some areas but worse in others.

sk8board

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwnlje3yp1o

totally forgot about this yesterday. Looks like it was incredibly lowkey, doing just a couple of drives with investors and influencers in a geofenced area, with a Tesla engineer in the passenger seat.
as underwhelming as we thought it would be

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123572896#Comment_123572896

Has to start somewhere right? I'm pretty surprised by the amount of us tesla users that maintain they commute daily with fsd.

pah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571251#Comment_123571251

You're probably correct about the negativity around Tesla but it's hardly coming from nowhere. People are annoyed with Musks pomposity around dates and deadlines, his constant goalpost moving etc without even mentioning his extra curricular activities.

Some negative stuff is required to counterbalance the unwavering fanboi loyalism from other directions.

pah

I don't mean this particular instance or story shows it's a sh1tshow. It's another deadline missed, another promise broken, another line of crap from the genius.

This should summarise it.

https://elonmusk.today/

slave1

Sure we can spout out all we want here, the market decides, just made an easy 9.5% on TSLA in two days and cashed in

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123572907#Comment_123572907

The most optimistic estimate puts FSD take-up at 20% of US sales, and musk denied in 2023 that it was just 2% that year, so I guess if you spend so much money on it you’re willing it to work.

No one is buying a tesla AND optioning FSD that isn’t happy to beta test it to death.

sk8board

Buy the rumour sell the news 👌.

nothing is ever bad news for TSLA :)

the low ish volumes this morning strongly suggest it’s retail driven.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123573254#Comment_123573254

True!

pah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123572941#Comment_123572941

Curious, how much you put down there, willing to post your total gains V losses then?

slave1

I've never lost on Tesla, in and out with quick gains, wait for the drop and back in ready to get out again, there's loads of stock like that, gained 50% after buying when Trump announced his levies after about a month of holding, small 4 figure sums

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123573254#Comment_123573254

US sales in 2023 were 670,000. 2% of that is 13,400 sales of FSD software at $8k that's $107,200,000 turnover just on the software, in one year. Dress it up whatever way you want, that's not bad and if they make it to 20% add another '0' on the end of that figure

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123574623#Comment_123574623

that’s just gambling. I’m not saying lots of things in the stock market are any different, but it’s a long off investing in the normal sense.

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123574782#Comment_123574782

its about the turnover of Dundrum town centre, so pretty pathetic in the context!

MJohnston

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123571473#Comment_123571473

Of course they will be, I just think it's an exceptionally hard problem to crack, there aren't even consistent designs for roundabouts across many countries — and I suspect we'll really struggle to get car manufacturers to properly tune their systems for the tiny Irish market.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123574623#Comment_123574623

Same here. Bought TSLA many times and just take small gains whenever they happen. Sometimes within days, sometimes many months. @maidhc - no that is not gambling if you are prepared to sit it out long term. Unless of course the company goes bankrupt. The only large USA car manufacturers that have never gone bankrupt are Ford and Tesla. And there might be only one left in that small list in the near enough future and that is not Ford…

The only "gamble" here is that I sell - realising a gain - and then the share goes up. This has of course also happened on me and the share is now way up on what it was the last time I sold everything. I currently don't hold TSLA nor do I plan to go back in at current share price. But I have said that before 😂

JOL1

All investments in stocks are a gamble ..albeit a calculated one ..where the belief is that there are grounds for believing they will increase in value but where there are no certainties..sitting it out for the long term does not address the uncertainty of the “gamble”

slave1

I think you are confusing gambling with risk

ELM327

Robotaxi has the same phantom braking that FSD and EAP have, this is hilarious. A comparison between an actual FSD car from waymo with Lidar etc and a 'robotaxi' from Tesla with a man in the front.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf_-v-nMrM8

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123577031#Comment_123577031

Yeah but for doing a lot less work

unkel

A Model Y drove / delivered itself from the Austin factory to the customer also in Austin, yesterday. By definition, this jumped the FSD beta from level 2 to level 5 (as Tesla has full responsibility for unsupervised FSD cars)

John arse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123587030#Comment_123587030

It's gonna be driving me home from the pub shortly, I'm telling you!🍻😉

MJohnston

It should be noted that when this Model Y that Tesla say delivered itself arrived, it parked on a red curb fire lane where you're not supposed to park:

https://www.theverge.com/news/694801/tesla-autonomous-delivery-factory-customer-robotaxi

A minor thing in the context of this particular 'event' but it shows you just how complex getting FSD right is, for any company.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123587070#Comment_123587070

Not in Ireland it won't. In the USA quite likely within a few years or so. I would put serious money on it being before 2030 (likely much sooner)

John arse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123587314#Comment_123587314

Yeah kinda knew that 😳

DrPsychia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123587314#Comment_123587314

Fat chance unless they start to use advanced sensors and beef up the onboard computers.

Even they're operating within the geofenced/mapped routes around Austin it's still making lots of errors driving in pristine weather conditions, on wide roads.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123587101#Comment_123587101

Ah shure, wouldnt be out of place in Ireland then. Double yellow lines dont mean a thing except in central Dublin.