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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭pauldry


    June might be cold again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Funny thing is our weather over this Christmas period is not going to be much different than the weather we had in June and July last summer in terms of temperature and possibly drizzly bursts, main difference will be less daylight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,282 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Wouldn't be surprised if winter is milder than the summer we just had



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Dont be daft Dazler. It's 13c these days it was up on 14c in June.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,282 ✭✭✭Dazler97




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    I remember mild Christmasses in the 80s, 90s, 00s.

    But these 13-15c Christmas Days are getting far more common since 2010. I don't know if it's Climate Change.

    Also when people moan about Athens and snow it annoys me a small bit. They are connected to the continent and with winds coming from the right direction are much closer to unmodified cold than us.

    We're the ones surrounded by the gulf stream, the island cold has to travel over a sea or ocean to.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    But when the likes of Athens gets snow it always seems to be a bad sign for us. As it shows the pattern is prone to a lack of proper cold for us while they get the cold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 184 ✭✭Rain from the West


    Nothing much to write home about in the latest GFS if you want snow. Personally, I don't mind a Christmas like this as many people are on the move over the holiday period visiting relations and friends etc. Let the snow come in January onwards when the holidays are done IMO.

    Untitled Image


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    Oh it is Bill, cold going the wrong direction.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    The pattern mustn't be that new. I'm thinking of the Spartans leaving new born babies out in winter and if they survived the cold, winter nights they were fit to be true Spartans😀

    Now of course this is folklore but maybe there's a grain of truth in it.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest ensembles show the blowtorch we will be enjoying next week with upper air temperatures possibly reaching +12C, this is the sort of setup we like to see during the summer which can get temperatures in the mid to high 20s but this is December so more like 12 to 14C generally, but with a Fohn affect I woulnd't be surprised if a few places reach 16C.

    Untitled Image

    22 December to 26th December see's the warmest of the temperatures with temperatures around 12 to 13C on a widespread scale by both day and night. The only good news is not much rain is expected over the Christmas to New Year period, maybe spots of drizzle or some light showers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,430 ✭✭✭pauldry


    My app has 13c all those days but 8c on the 25th. Will we even get fog?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,896 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    It may be just me, but in my 5 decades or so on this planet, the xmas period in Ireland is the most reliable time of year to see above averge temps around the country



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Decembers of the 13C almost guaranteed each and every year especially over the Christmas holidays, more reliable than a warm and sunny back to school 1st week of September after a washout summer!

    I may as well save todays model output and run the same ones this day next year and nobody would spot the difference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    True I suppose for most of the last 50 yrs. Even the cold winter of 78/79 ,didn't really get going ( at least snow wise) till the very end of December. The following yr the last few days of December 1979 were cold. Even during the overall cold first half of winter 81/82 ,it got milder during the last week of December. Last week of December 84 was chilly I think and a few days in the last week in 85 we had a cold snap. Apart from that every Christmas period was mild during the 80s. Last week of December 1990 was chilly enough had a few wet snow showers on the 27th. 93 and 94 dont stick in my memory but I don't think they were mild?? Frosty spell for a few days end of December 92. Easily the coldest Christmas period of the 90s was 95 and would have been the coldest for many yrs. After that though until 2010 colder Christmas periods were more common. 96, 2000, think 2001 was chilly, brief cold snap Christmas eve to st Stephens day 2004. Cold snap for a few days last week of December 2005. Can't really remember 2008 but I don't think it was mild?? 2009 of course at the end of December. Very cold Christmas eve and day 2010 before the milder weather set in the next day. Since then i can only think of 3 yrs that had any cold weather in the last week of December. 2014,2017 and 2020.

    Post edited by Billcarson on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A breakdown of the 32 perturbations in the last 5 GEFS for Christmas Day. Looks like we will be smack bang in the middle of a mild cycle in the upcoming cold/mild/cold/mild transitionary period of weather, although the 'very mild' outcomes are reduced slightly on what was showing 24 hours ago. All the models have been quite consistent in the past few days.

    Blue Modern Line Bar Chart Graph.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,830 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    GFS not as miserable in FI

    image.png image.png image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A 65-70% chance of daytime temperatures of 10-12c on Christmas Day based on the latest GEFS. The mild airmass is squeezed northeast toward Ireland by an area of low pressure moving out of Newfoundland.

    chart.jpg

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    aaa.png

    Little change in latest GEFS. A little chiller at the turn of the month/year.

    www.weatheire.com



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    One week out, there is now a near 100% chance of 10c+ temperatures for Christmas Day. Conditions likely to be largely overcast and dry with a gentle SSW to S breeze.

    Blue Modern Line Bar Chart Graph.jpg

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 236 ✭✭joinme


    Every time I see there is a new post on this thread, I get a little tingle of anticipation, a quantum of hope, that maybe, just maybe there are some juicy charts far off in FI. But alas, no, close encounters of the mild kind, prevail.

    Dear Father Christmas, if you're reading, all I ask for is some hope, you don't even need to deliver the goods, just give us the chase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    There is always time for change one week out, but it would want to be a monumental one considering the broad concensus at the moment for a mild outcome. Our best shot of seeing seasonal conditions at Christmas was for the big day to arrive during a cold phase in the present mild to cold to mild zonal cycle.

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Any chance the high pressure will give us a bit more in the way of sunshine? I presume looking at the charts and it origin it will be another dull depressing cloudy affair .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,604 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    You can be sure if there was model consensus regarding cold weather at Christmas that there would be every chance the outlook would change drastically, unfortunately we can count down to offensively mild conditions seamlessly. The only crumb of comfort is the high might eventually shift north at some point if the pv leaves and goes further east, but there could be enough residual energy left to spoil things. I hope we are not left relying on a SSW again to deliver at the back end of winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Really hope we don't get a ssw later in February again which would more than likely lead to another poor spring.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'm giving model watching a break until 1st of January, seems we will be stuck in this very mild rut for sometime to come, hopefully we will start seeing charts of interest from early in January. As for an SSW it seems none of the models are going for one any time soon either so we're probably looking at one in either February, March or April if we get one at all and by then it's too late to care about one anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 407 ✭✭brookers


    Every time I hear you say you are giving model watching a break, my heart sinks. I know then all hope is gone. Was thinking of December 2010 when I was out for a walk, it just kept on giving…..even Christmas Day 2009, blue ice everywhere, I remember trying to walk down a country road and it was like a mirror of ice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    1993 brought Christmas Eve snow to higher ground in the South Midlands. A rain belt moved up and hit colder air. We had a white one at home. It snowed across much of the country on 21st December too.

    1994 was sleety on hills.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Thanks for that 👍 couldn't remember both yrs for some reason. Perhaps it could be said that colder periods became more common around Christmas from 1990 to 2010 rather then my initial thinking of 95 to 2010.



This discussion has been closed.
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