Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

SF are in decline 2020 Vs 2024. They peaked in 2020.

Decline of 22% in FPV & decline of 3% in terms of seats in 2024 vs 2020.

The left party votes are shifting from SF to Labour and Soc Dems, they are not consolidating.

If they were consolidating, SF would have retained their 535k FPVs from 2020, when in fact they dropped to less than 420k. That is a HUGE drop.

Wrong again Kerry.

FG increased their FPV in 2024. The only one of the big 3 to do so.

FG didnt win as many seats as SF, because they transferred heavily to FF. FFG voted as one.

FG still got more FPV than SF. More people voted number 1 for FG than voted number 1 for SF.

Same applies for FF; even splitting the centre vote between FF and FG, both parties still outvoted SF in FPVs.

FPV isnt everything, but it is the bellwether for party support.

You are seeing a huge decline in the popular vote for SF at 22% while Labour and Soc Dems eat their lunch; both parties gained heavily in FPV vs the last election, because they have won the left wing SF vote.

And as you may have noticed, Labour and Soc Dems arent that interested in talking to SF about an alliance anyway.

Lab/Soc Dems can see which way the wind is blowing and its in their favour, at the expense of SF.

Bluesky won't come out of the comfort bubble.

What's the alternative now? What has changed?

The role of an opposition is quite simple. Explain to the public how badly a government is doing, why the opposition can do it better, and increase your vote at the next election.

As you have already admitted, that makes the last SF opposition the second worst in Irish political history.

Once again, through your pedantic parsing of posts, your wild misinterpretations and your crazy leaps of illogic, you miss the point.

People are beginning to realise that Sinn Fein are only in politics to pursue a united Ireland that really makes little difference to anyone's lives making the majority indifferent and only annoys and upsets a large minority. Nothing else really matters to them, which is why they oscillate continuously between "leading" a left Alliance and crying and whinging that FF and FG won't let them into government. They have no policies, they have no red lines, they have no morals.

If you think that SF are going to change anything, you are sadly deluded.

What do you mean it's easier for me because I have a juggernaut?

The new promises are completely unrealistic but they cannot hide from them this time because they both made them.

Yes, there is a very clear set of promises to achieve to hold them accountable to. Lay on Micheál and Simon and Mr Lowry etc and dam be him or her that first cries hold, enough!

There are only two pathways, (or a combination of them) for SF getting enough votes to govern.

Move towards the centre hoping to take enough votes of FF & FG to prevent them having enough support to form a coalition government, or move further left and cannabalise other parties on the left.

Moving towards the centre to attract FF & FG votes would have a few difficulties for SF. FF & FG`s core voters may not like each other to any great degree but the one thing they have in common is that both despise SF, and both have a strong core vote. So weaning any substantial numbers of them away would be extremely difficult. It would also leave SF in the position of any such votes they might gained on the swings they would lose on the roundabout with many of there own core voters leaving due to SF moving towards the centre.

When it comes to moving further left. There may have been a bit of a warm glow towards SF from others on the left after the 2020 GE where some got over the line due to SF transfers, but that was not because of any great love for them from SF. It was due to SF not fielding enough candidates, which had they done, those transfer would never have reached those others on the left. As Ged Nash of Labour pointed out, SF didn`t do any favours for anyone else on the left this time when it came to instructions on transfers.To me this proposed SF coalition of the left in opposition is nothing more than an attempt to cannabalise other parties on the left, and something these parties, the SD`s in particular, are now waking up to recognise as such.

There is a business case for road connectivity to Dublin

There is also a business case for Cork to Limerick. There is no business case for cork-waterford-rosslare by motorway. What is the logic in that? It's not a big trip generator, nor do we have large amounts of freight that need to go port to port? (Why would they?)

Dublin is massive even compared to cork, and especially so compared to Waterford or Galway. The reason they bulk or transport investment is in Dublin is because Dublin needs it the most - Dublin has the most amount of people that need moved around it efficiently.

The idea that LUAS was only because of parish pump effect in Dublin is BS. As is the idea that motorway network is because of politics and not because Dublin is the economic backbone of the country.

As for Cork Luas/Galway Luas - the reason those haven't happened yet is because of local authorities. Galway has hitched it's wagon firmly to the motorcar, and Cork council have torpedoed their own Luas project for Cork. It's nothing to do with Dublin-centrism by decision makers and everything to do with local incompetence.

If Martin hasn't ruled out going in with SF they would have gotten less seats. Wouldn't have gotten the transfers they got from FG voters which got them over the line in a lot of places. FF and FG voters transferred to each other on the basis of both staying In power and keeping SF out.

Whatever about Rosslare linking the second and fifth largest cities in the state by motorway seems like a credible infrastructure project. There hasn't been more calls for it because the second and third largest cities are not linked by motorway either so that's been getting all of the attention.

2011 is not relevant.

We are talking about the current trend period, which is the time between the last GE and this one.

That is the only data that shows the recent trend and that trend for SF is categorically downward; both on FPV and seat share in an enlarged Dail.

Your data shows that SF peaked in 2020, following a very sharp rise since 2011, yet from 2020 to 2024, there is a rapid decline.

The decline in FPV in particular is huge (22.5%) and reflects left wing voters migrating to Soc Dems and Labour...the change is happening.

SF got 535k popular votes in 2020 and only 418k in 2024 - that is an epic drop!

FG got 455k popular votes in 2020 and increased to 458k in 2024.

There is only one of those 2 parties maintaining/increasing their vote and it is not SF!

GE 2028/29 looks bad for SF if the 22.5% downward trend is not urgently reversed.

It appears SF have peaked and on their way downwards, as left wing voters move to Labour/Soc Dems.

Nice to see they all put their female TDs at the front and the centre for the group photos. The female TDs just seem to go along with it.

I cant help it if you dont understand trends, but good luck.

FG will be in govt. SF, buddy, will not.

And thats better than good.