Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

The independents have claimed only yesterday that they are not parish pump politicians, Canney was talking about a LUAS in Galway, something I support. You are being critical for the sake of being critical, all in the name of your own political party.

I supported the Green's focus on public transport, active travel, carbon tax, renewable energy etc. If the new government drops those, I will criticise them for that. If they continue on with them, why would I criticise them?

The independents have claimed only yesterday that they are not parish pump politicians, Canney was talking about a LUAS in Galway, something I support

"We are not parish pump politicians"

"BTW my demand to prop up the govt is you give us a LUAS"

😂 😂 😂

There is a lot of assumption going on.
I don't think it is safe to say:

A very significant majority of FF and FG voters simply could not countenance any kind of alignment with SF in their current form.

for this reason.
We all witnessed a significant slump in putative SF support for reasons other than the performance of FF FG and the Greens at the time. They were similarly low in putative support after all. FG's later rise came from the Harris bounce.
Failure to take account of that misses a key point.

If FF and FG had achieved a significant increase in their actual support, you might be able to claim that it was down to a significant majority not wanting SF in government. How many really believed a man in government with a party he had previously said he never would be? I would wager not many based on all the analysts and pundits not believing him either.

What happened was FF and FG got lucky and the election came at a time when SF were in recovery. Another two weeks the way the momentum was going would have made a difference. That's not sour grapes just an acceptance of realities.

Brand Harris had slumped from putative support of 27% when it's asset was released into the wild and people got a look at what he really was. They swiitched to FF, being led by somebody who has really excelled in his self portrayal as a statesman 'I saved the country during Covid' etc and god knows were else, some of them may have switched to SF.

The point being here, it's a bit more complex than just a repudiation of SF in government.

I'm thinking it's a 2 party + gene pool indies govt we are looking at

Of the 15 ministries. Taoiseach and Tanaiste will be MM and SH

Of the 13 remaining ministries FF will take 55% (7) and FG 45% (6) potentially one of each getting a gene pool indie. this was previously a 5 + 4 split between FF and FG

Assuming the civil war parties want to keep the same portfolios, Currently FF have 4, due to the loss of useless Stephen Donnelly, and FG have 4 that leaves the following ones vacant

Health (Formerly Stephen Donnelly, FF)

Environment, Communications and Climate (formerly Eamon "sleepy" Ryan GP)

Transport (formerly Eamon "sleepy" Ryan GP)

Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media (formerly Catherine Martin GP)

Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth (formerly Roderic O Gorman GP)

Who do we think will get what? Will some of the portfolios go to gene pool indies?

Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are at core vote levels, those core voters will not countenance a link with Sinn Fein,

I fundamentally disagree. There is no evidence for this. The actual evidence suggests most people do not believe Martin when he says he won't do something. And they have the track record to base that on.
If Micheál or FF pivot then we can judge by how many decamp.
FG do not want to coalesce with anyone really, that we know from their arrogance to believe that as 3rd party in strength in the Dáil they deserve parity of esteem and equal jobs.

Sure why don't SF team up with FF so and settle for Tanaiste?

Because MM has only one customer - Fine Gael.

That weakens his leverage considerably.

Hence it's parity of esteem or find somebody else.

The only reason we have two LUAS lines is because of “parish pump politicians” in Dublin. Likewise for the motorways, (almost) all of which run to/from Dublin.

It also applies to the proposed Metro which is still alive and kicking despite the government spending more on the feasibility and planning stages than it did on actually building the two LUAS lines. Were that to have happened on a LUAS style system for Cork or Limerick or anywhere else, the project would have been scrapped long ago.

I don't see Darragh O'Brien keeping Housing. He failed badly and he knows it's a poison chalice. They will fail at all their new housing promises too.

They had the same manifesto promise as SF of 60,000/year so if they put a confident person in there I see no reason for them not to get to it. They'll probably have to use the SF idea of private housing on public land though after rubbishing it and calling it unworkable for the last few weeks

Health is a big one. They'll need to give that to somebody they don't like. My guess is Willie O'Dea will be a shoe in and he'll be gone in 2019, or potentially sooner

John Connolly for transport could be an idea. Galway has been sorely lacking proper transport infrastructure. If he gets the much promised ring road and tram system over the line he'll be a shoe in. FF also have a good track record of road building

The smart money says Disability should be combined with Health and that Children and Youth should be added to Education. Equality and Integration should be part of the Justice ministers portfolio or more preferably given its own ministry given the failures of Helen "safe city" McEntee.

It's what the electorate voted for based on the transfer patterns.

They also have to clear the remaining IRA stuff from the party at every level, to show that they are actually finished with that. That isn't just having an actual leadership election, it needs to go down to the roots.

Stop posting commemorations for "volunteers" who blew themselves up on buses in London by mistake (as the Wexford branches do), stop re-selecting people with bomb making convictions. Stop doing memorial events for murderers.

A question for @FrancieBrady if FF and FG negotiate a programme for government but FG stick on having a rotating taoiseach, and as a result the talks fail and we go on with the caretaker government for ages, would you be giving out about how MM is being selfish and thinking about himself rather than the greater good? I think you would.

But because it's obvious that there will be an agreement between FF and FG that will at least give us a government, you instead take shots at FF for agreeing to that.

It must be easy to sit on the fence and just be able to complain without ever acknowledging decisions having to be taken.

The reason we have 2 Luas lines and a motorway network is because of the work put in by the department of transport and the NRA/NTA.

Not because of politicians trying to negotiate for a project for their parishioners.

Yeah that's all forgotten. I wonder is this all because it's December now and they all want to take their Xmas break now.

Donnelly is still Minister for Health until they get it sorted. And I doubt he will kill himself workwise while the trolley numbers pile up.

Micheál can do what he wishes.

It is easier to be you maybe because you have a juggernaut now.
Problem is, juggernauts are hard on fuel and there isn't much left.
When SF support slumped, I quite readily accepted they wouldn't be in government this time and I didn't change that opinion during the campaign. I.E. I'm over it, the project continues, by finishing second the pressure on that fuel is maintained.