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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    Link it to the property tax valuation. A simple example you get a 3% tax free return on the value of the property. If a landlord has multiple properties he gets the rate based on each property.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭Rooks




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Ah yes because everyone who doesn't own a home just partied away their 20s and then decided at 35 "I want to buy a house".

    I suppose they were eating avocado toast and buying takeaway coffees every day too.

    Home ownership has never been more difficult to achieve in the last 40 years. Nothing to do with pulling up your bootstraps or a bit of hard graft. Prices have raced ahead of incomes and cost of living also is soaring. It's simple economics, not related to some stereotypes of millennials



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Might look like the State is the winner in the current situation but that's too simplistic.

    Government is marginal buyer in the rental sector pushing up rents as they are subsidising huge number of private tenancies via HAP and also providing social housing via long leases in private sector.

    This in turn is pushing sales prices up due to rental yield valuations and relative cost of buying versus renting.

    And higher sales prices are forcing state to subsidise purchasing through HTB and shared equity etc.

    Rising rents not only require ever increased investment in HAP and long leases but also further subsidies in providing "cost rental" accommodation.

    So yes, government is taking a lot of tax in from rentals, but the more they take in the more taxpayers funds they have to shell out in subsidies.

    This is helping nobody, least of all the taxpayer. Making a certain level of rent tax free would help everybody.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭Rooks


    The CBI did a House Price to Income analysis in 2022, so it's missing the most recent two years but you could probably extrapolate the trend in your head.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/estimating-the-trend-of-house-price-to-income-in-ireland.pdf



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    With benefit oh hindsight, average house price Dublin 2009 this time of year 278K (1) now it’s 568K (2)
    that’s 108% increase


    S&P500 was 1100 then and 6000 now that’s 445% increase

    So whoever higher up made the claim that houses are better investment that pensions is wildly wrong

    Even if one didn’t avail of pension and all the tax advantages those offers and invested with similar amounts back then into an index fund even after fees and our insane capital gains, they would have now the money not only for same house but 2-3 more for their kids

    (1)

    http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/media/press-releases/2010/20-01-2010.aspx

    (2)

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/09/18/house-prices-now-rising-at-annual-rate-of-10/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭Rooks


    Pension funds typically don't invest in the S&P 500. They usually target a lower but more stable risk/reward function.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    You obviously are not old enough to remember our own crash and people saying exactly what you are saying there shortly before the crash only to endup with massive debts and negative equity around their necks that took 15 years to erode and no flexibility to move jobs to

    Getting serious 2005 vibes from this thread now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    You can chose the funds usually with younger people farther from retirement automatically usually put on higher risk/return pots

    Mine had 500% increase on same time

    There’s terrible financial advice being given in this thread that smacks badly of terrible advice being given out on internet pre 2008

    Primary house is not an investment and that people are talking about houses again in same revered Celtic tiger era tones is disturbing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭Rooks


    The thing I've learned about know it alls, is that in the end, they know nothing.

    All the best.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The similiarity that I see now with Celtic Tiger times is the huge level of certainty that it is almost impossible for house prices to fall because of the simple economics of supply and demand, the fundamentals all point one way etc.

    Yet much of the reasoning cited for this argument is based on logic that is far from sound.

    The idea that over 440k adults are living their parents is evidence of a 250k housing deficit is just one example of many.

    Too many people are blinded by the narrative and are ignoring the data - if you consider it objectively there is very little data to support the narrative.

    This is exactly what happened in 06/07.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    That is a problem but we also seen how quickly hundreds of thousands of people can also leave this country and not return (or come in first place)

    That’s not what i am arguing against, it’s the dangerous meme being spread about pensions which even on our highly investment hostile country still remains one of the best long term investment options for average person, especially compared to housing here

    People in Ireland viewing property as an investment is a bigger problem both on the up and the downside



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Talks of SSIA and UK style tax efficient ISA's being introduced in the future



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The Devil can quite scripture for his own use. The S&P has had huge variation here is it historical indexes

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

    You took 2009, if you take 2000 the index was at approx 1425 and the average this year is approx 5330 so a 325% return not sure what tge annual dividend average would be problems than 2%.

    In 2000 you have bought a decent house in a decent area in Dublin for about 100K. Today that house is probably worth 6-800k. Rental income would have averaged 4-5% of it value over the time frame. At present average rent in Dublin is probably 1k/ bedspaces that is 36k/anum for a 3 bed semiD which is 5% of present value at 700k. So over a 20 year span that property has returned 700% and an annualised dividend of 4-5% of its value probably

    Property is usually a good investment, it's where real wealth is created for a lot of the upper earning middle class. However I be reluctant to invest in it through a pension fund . You have better leveraging option outside a pension fund.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Southern Europe has sky high youth unemployment, and their own housing crises in cities like Lisbon. They're not examples of either functional housing markets or functioning employment markets for young people.

    How many 20 and 30 something young people do you know who would rather live in their parents house than in their own apartment/house? Very very few functional adults want that lifestyle, they want the freedom, maturity and independence of having their own home.

    And non anecdotally, in countries with functional housing markets for this demographic the number is very very low (ie the Scandinavian figures, or look at the % of American college students who voluntarily choose to live at home, or plenty of other examples).

    I don't have the figure for the % of young adults living with their parents in 2006 to hand, but I would very strongly suspect it was significantly less than in 2022, or 2024, given the trend I have seen in figures since 2011 that I posted. Do feel free to tell us it if you know it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    You haven't a clue. It was far easier to get on the ladder in 05, banks would lend to anything with a heartbeat.

    And even those people who bought in 05,06,07 are still better off now than if they hadn't bought at all.

    Time in the market > timing the market



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    ”Time in the market > timing the market” says the guy arguing against pensions and talking up property investment

    To quote yourself “you haven’t a clue”

    Last time people on this country talked up property as investment it all ended in tears, you must be too young to remember because the alternative explanation is more sinister

    Post edited by j62 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    This was examined earlier in the year from the period 2002 to 2022 on Irish national house prices. The period incorporated 2 bubbles and 1 crash (not an unusual outcome for property over 20 years). The capital appreciation return over this period was struggling to breach 10% if I recall correctly

    Secondly many posters breach the gospel of avoiding timing the market. History has thought us the dangers of not considering it.

    Very difficult of course in practical terms to time the market, this is why every state interference should be to stabilise and avoid having housing becoming a highly speculative asset. Unfortunately the state is the greatest contributer to the highly speculative nature of property over 3 decades

    In 2000 you have bought a decent house in a decent area in Dublin for about 100K. Today that house is probably worth 6-800k



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    You've already been proven wrong on this - property appreciation far outranks most index funds and pension growth in the long-term.

    And after buying a house your cashflow improves as difference between rent versus mortgage & maintenance is big. Which means you can then pay more into your pension.

    But paying into pensions when you haven't even got a home of your own is incredibly stupid.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    How many 20 and 30 something young people do you know who would rather live in their parents house than in their own apartment/house? Very very few functional adults want that lifestyle, they want the freedom, maturity and independence of having their own home.

    In an ideal world of course almost every 20/30 something would like to move out. But even when we've had an abundance of houses, cheap rents and plentiful credit, hundreds of thousands of young adults lived with their parents. That will always happen.

    I don't have the figure for the % of young adults living with their parents in 2006 to hand, but I would very strongly suspect it was significantly less than in 2022, or 2024, given the trend I have seen in figures since 2011 that I posted. Do feel free to tell us it if you know it.

    I don't have the figure either, but I guarantee you the total number was in the hundreds of thousands, not sub 20k as you seem to be suggesting.

    No doubt the % is higher now than in 2006, but it is the difference in % that is the problem we need to solve. Not the total. That's my point.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭Rooks


    Plus it's not a all or nothing decision. I contributed to my work pension and saved for a house at the same time. You can do both.

    Now that I have the house I contribute to my pension and buy into ETFs.

    So now I have three nest eggs growing.

    I must be clueless though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    Whats incredibly stupid is not availing the only good way of growing wealth this country offers while everything else is taxed to hell

    Especially with compounding interest from time one is in their 20s

    To quote yourself, time in market vs timing the market

    Hundreds of thousands bought wholesale into the exact same line of nonsense you have been pushing above twenty years ago and are still around to regret viewing property as investment



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The best way of growing wealth in this country is buying and owning a home, pensions are 2nd to that.

    Paying down a mortgage is building equity in a home, paying rent is dead money.

    The idea you are better off not buying a property and continuing to pay rent and have larger pension contributions is just complete nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    Wrong yet again, a primary home is not an investment as you keep referring to it as such, crap like this was peddled to the population twenty years ago and it ended badly, next you be peddling villas in Cape Verde or apartments in Bulgaria

    You complain about renting, but what will one have to do if they sell their primary residence, that’s right rent

    You either

    1. Don’t remember what happened in this country
    2. Choose not to learn from what happened

    First is forgivable if one is young, second is downright sinister, there could be young people reading this thread and if they get wrong ideas about pensions and investments it will lead for misery for them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Thankfully everyone else on thread can see you are posting nonsense - I think I've debunked your posts enough so I'll leave it at that else this thread goes round in circles.

    I'm not sure what prompted this particular reincarnation of your many accounts to start posting in Irish property market, but you would do well to start backing up your posts with some substance other than connections to 2008 that don't exist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    long over due - bar an type avc pension people have very little to put their money into besides property



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,999 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Maybe a low target. But it’s a realistic one. We don’t have unemployed tradesman. We can build a certain amount each year.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Personally I think it is a realistic target, both in terms of what can actually be achieved and what is required.

    My post perhaps didn't make it clear that I was pleased they weren't pandering to the "we need 100k a year just to stand still, we have a 250k deficit" etc stuff.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Fine Gael have been talking housing plans this morning.

    And unsurprisingly they confirmed they will extend the First Home Scheme to second hand properties.

    Which was always totally inevitable.

    Cynic in me thinks the policy it is more about protecting the value of the previously purchased FHS properties than helping more new FTBers.

    Or in other words it's a Ponzi scheme.

    Post edited by hometruths on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Yet people will still say that they are incompetent.



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