Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820204#Comment_122820204

Whats incredibly stupid is not availing the only good way of growing wealth this country offers while everything else is taxed to hell

Especially with compounding interest from time one is in their 20s

To quote yourself, time in market vs timing the market

Hundreds of thousands bought wholesale into the exact same line of nonsense you have been pushing above twenty years ago and are still around to regret viewing property as investment

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820236#Comment_122820236

The best way of growing wealth in this country is buying and owning a home, pensions are 2nd to that.

Paying down a mortgage is building equity in a home, paying rent is dead money.

The idea you are better off not buying a property and continuing to pay rent and have larger pension contributions is just complete nonsense.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820252#Comment_122820252

Wrong yet again, a primary home is not an investment as you keep referring to it as such, crap like this was peddled to the population twenty years ago and it ended badly, next you be peddling villas in Cape Verde or apartments in Bulgaria

You complain about renting, but what will one have to do if they sell their primary residence, that’s right rent

You either

1. Don’t remember what happened in this country
2. Choose not to learn from what happened

First is forgivable if one is young, second is downright sinister, there could be young people reading this thread and if they get wrong ideas about pensions and investments it will lead for misery for them

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820330#Comment_122820330

Thankfully everyone else on thread can see you are posting nonsense - I think I've debunked your posts enough so I'll leave it at that else this thread goes round in circles.

I'm not sure what prompted this particular reincarnation of your many accounts to start posting in Irish property market, but you would do well to start backing up your posts with some substance other than connections to 2008 that don't exist.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819976#Comment_122819976

long over due - bar an type avc pension people have very little to put their money into besides property

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122811189#Comment_122811189

Maybe a low target. But it’s a realistic one. We don’t have unemployed tradesman. We can build a certain amount each year.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122822299#Comment_122822299

Personally I think it is a realistic target, both in terms of what can actually be achieved and what is required.

My post perhaps didn't make it clear that I was pleased they weren't pandering to the "we need 100k a year just to stand still, we have a 250k deficit" etc stuff.

hometruths

Fine Gael have been talking housing plans this morning.

And unsurprisingly they confirmed they will extend the First Home Scheme to second hand properties.

Which was always totally inevitable.

Cynic in me thinks the policy it is more about protecting the value of the previously purchased FHS properties than helping more new FTBers.

Or in other words it's a Ponzi scheme.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122826411#Comment_122826411

Yet people will still say that they are incompetent.

fliball123

T

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819916#Comment_122819916

I hightlighted the issue supply vs demand along with a few other issues with regards to property going back to 2016/7/8 that not only was supply stopped and slowed for the guts of 2 decades but that we would see an increase in investors from all over the globe due to the rent returns that were high back then and they have gone through the roof since add in the government scheme to take properties off you and manage it for you for 20/25 years and you can sit back and watch the cash roll in on an asset only going one way. Throw in more and more people arriving in Ireland from other countries due to a lot of positive aspects such as jobs, safe country to live (relatively speaking), the who needs documentation issue as in people don't seem to need to gain entry here and of course our world record breaking welfare entitlements. I said more and more people would be looking to be housed. People on here scoffed saying that they would not be in the same market with someone buying a home I countered that they would be housed one way or the other which is what has happened via our left leaning government. Not only are people who are trying to buy now competing with a domestic market, they are competing with our gov who are hoovering up houses for those who can afford to buy and those fleeing from other countries and then you have international investors who are continuing to buy here. As long as we continue down this path of not building enough and having people compete for buying a house in the same market as huge vulture funds and our gov who have endless amounts of cash then there will be no let up for people from say 30 years of age downwards in this country I have 2 kids and I would be advising both to get out of dodge when they can as the sums in the country when you cant afford the rent or to buy added to the fact that your fleeced on income tax (your own hard work) from the gov to pay for housing for others while you cant get a step on the ladder yourself does not add up. Of course they will tell you "but the incentives for FTBs" yada yada which have done nothing but to push prices up even further out of reach for our younger domestic cohort. This may sound harsh and I may get a ear bashing from the left leaning here but its the simple truth we are importing people into the country housing them and all of this is been done on the backs of us living here with a huge % not being able to afford to rent or buy forceing them to leave its shameful.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122826488#Comment_122826488

It’s a good thing there is an election coming up and one of the parties actually has a track record of building record numbers of homes 😂

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122826531#Comment_122826531

One of the parties has a track record of creating a housing crisis, the other has a track record of crashing the economy and housebuilding

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820208#Comment_122820208

If you don't have the figure then your argument is based on pure uninformed speculation - whereas I gave the exact figures to back up my points.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122826736#Comment_122826736

The only point your figures backed up was your own personal belief that we need to have a sufficient number of housing units in the country to accommodate every person over 18 who would prefer not to live with their parents.

Which is obviously patent nonsense.

It's akin to the SIMI surveying drivers' preferences and using the responses to prove that we have a shortage of Ferraris in the country.

pinksoir

The only thing stopping folks in bidding wars is access to funds. Sure let's give them an additional 30% to throw in.

Shared equity in the second hand market? The whole conceit of shared equity is that it is supposed to stimulate the building of houses by allowing builders to make what they would deem to be acceptable returns on the back of the tax payer. It has generally only been inflationary to new home prices, both here and indeed in the UK where it was shown to be BEFORE being adopted here. But at least there was some vague idea of benefit to the FTB to hide behind.

There is absolutely no benefit to extending it to the second hand market. There are few second hand homes available in the first instance and by definition it can't stimulate any building there. So what is it supposed to do?

The absolute neck on Harris feigning concern for the first time buyer as if this is going to be any sort of help. It will just push housing far beyond the grasp of anyone who doesn't want to take on this delayed debt burden (the stake is of course subject to interest after a number of years if not repaid). There are any number of other things they could be trying besides this lazy nonsense.

Anyone who believes the government are trying to do anything other than inflate house prices need only look at this insanity. They can't be that inept, surely?

https://www.thejournal.ie/first-time-buyers-help-to-buy-homes-scheme-election-6539364-Nov2024/

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122828387#Comment_122828387

There is absolutely no benefit to extending it to the second hand market. There are few second hand homes available in the first instance and by definition it can't stimulate any building there. So what is it supposed to do?

It is supposed to solve the glaring flaw in the scheme.

An "affordable" new build is now €500k in Coolock as an example, which is only affordable because taxpayer is paying 1/3.

Problem is if your circumstances change and you wish to sell the house for whatever reason, it's now a second hand house, and you need to find a buyer who agrees that paying 500k without a taxpayer subsidy for a house in Coolock is an attractive idea.

That might be a struggle.

Unless of course the greater fool also is able to avail of the taxpayers generosity.

Problem solved. Thats the point I was making above about the Ponzi scheme.

hometruths

Questioned by O'Broin last week in the Housing Committee on the governments targets and why they are so much lower than the Housing Commission recommendations, a Dept of Housing officer confirmed the government are not buying the ridiculous estimates about a 250k deficit put out by the Housing Commission:

The difference is between 1.9 household size, which is what the Housing Commission has based it on. That is just based on a set of assumptions. There is no analysis or evidence base behind that.

I'm very critical of the government on housing, but credit where it is due here.

Running into an election campaign it would have been very tempting to just ignore the realities pointed out by the Dept's analysis and go with the far higher bogus targets that have dominated the headlines, and worry about the true facts after the election.

They deserve a bit of credit for resisting the temptation.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_housing_local_government_and_heritage/2024-11-05/

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820204#Comment_122820204

Prioritising getting out of the 'rent trap' is of course good advice.

But you're totally wrong in your comparison between property and other assets. Have a study:

https://hotelivory.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/a-very-long-view-on-house-prices/

Or just think for a moment - over the very long term, how could the value of property rise faster than the value of businesses that generate the wealth we spend on it?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122829647#Comment_122829647

How is the tax payer paying 1/3 of it

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122828387#Comment_122828387

"There is absolutely no benefit to extending it to the second hand market. There are few second hand homes available in the first instance and by definition it can't stimulate any building there. So what is it supposed to do?"

It is supposed to do what every other policy the state has enacted in the last decade; it is supposed to inflate the housing market.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122829814#Comment_122829814

30%, not 33.3%, my bad, apologies.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122829783#Comment_122829783

I think you’re both right here but making completely different points

Like for like. €10,000 invested in a house or equities via a pension with 40% tax relief. Pension is going to be massive winner over time. Not really an argument.

However, the reason a house is usually the biggest wealth builder for average people is because they leverage up 10x to buy it. No normal person would ever take that level of risk outside of buying their home. Usually that massive risk pays off in the long term.

Comparing absolute returns of a 10x leverage investment and unleveraged investment without adjusting for risk doesn’t make sense.

Thargor

My God there goes any hope of long term plans for bus connect or new trains/metros with the Apple windfall, they're literally boasting about pissing it up the wall by handing it to landlords and developers in the papers this morning by boosting help to buy and the rent tax credit, not even bothering to try and hide it anymore.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122826647#Comment_122826647

See this is where people need to think. Not one party in the last 30/40 years maybe longer have come into government and done what they said. These boyos will tell you anything you want to hear to get in get their power, their cash and their pensions and then they will concentrate and prioritise their own pocket first and then the parish pump politics in favor of the greater good for the country so they have a strong chance of re-election. In the mean time the real power is with the perma-gov manderins who can run rings around any given minister of the day. You only need to look at bike sheds, chilrens hospital and RTE to name but a few very recent issues that show politicians have no power here and no matter who gets in their will be zero change. I have said it before until people have real accountability and punishment as in the sack with no pension or if they promise to do 10 things while in government by adding, taking away or changing something then their pension should reflect this if they get 3 done out of the 10 in their 5 years then they should only get 30% of what they could of got. This is the only way to get these spoofers to actually do what they are getting voted in on. Until something happens to the way the of politics runs in this country I wont be voting as there is no viable candidate for me they will spin you a good yarn but not one politician to date has done what they have been voted in for and of course no punishment. Before I get but they wont get voted in again look at the above all they have to do is keep their constituents happyish and if they are voted out there is always Europe, local counsels, seanad and other little areas to keep their snouts at through not to mention the pension for 5 years of work that is better than a very high % of private sector pensions.

Good luck to those voting I hope to be proven wrong over the next 5 years with whoever gets in but while the status quo remains I will stay skeptical.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122829816#Comment_122829816

There is benefit of applying to 2nd hand houses, if it was applied to 2nd hand houses people would/could sell up and move to something smaller as the birds leave their nest at the moment people cant do this. What its does is it stops the tax payers money just funnelling into property developers at least the bog standard billy and mary can buy a 2nd hand house with the monies got from the gov and give them more choice going forward

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830298#Comment_122830298

We are not getting a metro. The Irish state cannot build a hospital without it ballooning in cost and time taken. The competency to build something like a metro simply is not there. The Apple money will be squandered. This is what happens when there are no consequences for failure.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830333#Comment_122830333

Which will still drive up prices.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830333#Comment_122830333

It won't cause people to downsize because there are no options to downsize too.

We need supply, more apartments, more small houses etc for downsizing. These do not exist, so where can people sell the oversized nest and move to?

Supply led measures are what we need to fix the housing crisis, not further demand inflation

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830418#Comment_122830418

Well it would just mean 2nd hand homes coming up to the same level as new ones as I say it means that individuals would get the financial advantage as well as property developers. But yeah it would bring prices up being honest. IMO all supports should be removed FTB, help to buy, HAP, the lot and let the market find its natural price but no one in gov will do this as it would be seen as taking away something that is now ingrained in people same as USC which was supposed to be temporary is now going to be with us forever more. The likes of the rental credit may have shown a way forward by giving it to them in their wage as in a Mortgage/Renting credit and for a lot more than it currently is. The average of rents/mortgage repayments made in the country from the previous year should be found and that should be given back to each individual working over the course of the year. It could be pro rata as well so say we use a 38 hour as standard if you work 19hours you get 50% of it and so forth. So if the average that was paid out was 30k for a mortgage/rent then peoples tax free allowance should be topped up to by this amount help people pay for both rent and a mortgage. IMO a much fairer way and use of peoples taxes it would actually benefit the induvial first and foremost. For those who will never afford their own home there should be housing provided but under no circumstance should they ever own it when the individual/couple passes then the house should come back into government ownership for the next person who needs it. But its time people paying the bills who actually get up off their holes and work get some bang for their buck.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830577#Comment_122830577

Yeah we do need more supply but in my experience a lot people who retire a lot more are now swaying towards warmer climates this is just hear say for me as in people I know but it would interesting to get a figure on the amount of Irish who have retired to Spain/Portugal/France over the last decade. The issue with supply is the lack of tradesmen. I did put a suggestions of offering incentives to other countries for other people to come in and work here as in work for 5 years in building up a stock of housing for the government and walk away with your tax back when you leave.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122830684#Comment_122830684

Its become much harder to buy in Spain/Portugal now as backlash against foreign buyers and airBNBs is seeing govts take action against non-national buyers of property.

Its still doable, but not nearly so good value or easy as before.

The majority of parents in this country do not expatriate themselves to retire in the sun, most live and die here in their oversized house. There is a definite need for sizing down accommodation, but it doesn't exist.