Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

This is a really important point. In the last 30 years the post-08 crash was nothing but a mere blip lasting between 2009-2013 but surrounded by growth in pretty much every other of the 26 years. It’s truly waiting for Godot to dwell on what was a sharp but very short-lived correction in the Irish property market which ended half a generation ago and trying to use that for context as to what could happen to the current market!

All achieved by massive amounts of debt

France debt downgraded yesterday, US looking like it could hit a Liz Truss moment at anytime. China is stockpilling gold, copper and oil. Russia nuclear saber rattling again. Never been so much visible risk out there yet.

Jamie Dimon said last week that Goldma Sachs was not buying back anymore shares as they were too expensive. Later that week they hit a new high. Looks very blow off top mode

The money printing and zero interest rate genie is getting found out

If Dublin is classified as severely unaffordable and other cities are nearly twice as bad, that to me is a huge risk rather than a sign that this unaffordability can deteriorate for another decade

Thanks @DataDude for doing the numbers

I spent some time working as an investment adviser back around 2015/16 and at that point we were telling clients that every equity valuation metric was flashing red.

Sure there will be another downturn, but timing it is almost impossible, and it will likely be relatively short lived. It’s factually just terrible advice to suggest hold off buying in the hopes of nominal price falls in property. It almost never happens, and what’s worse at the moment, the rental market is so expensive you need significant nominal falls to be better off.
I’d confidently put the chances of this as less than 10% in a high wage inflation environment. I’m hopeful we will see 5-15% REAL reductions in prices over the medium term. But this still means prices go up in nominal terms.

On your point of affordability in Dublin, it’s a great aspiration but it’s a bit farfetched. If you suggested that average income workers should be able to buy a new 3 bed semi in almost any other capital city, people in those countries would think you are mental.

Dublin will continue as all other capitals do. Younger people on average wages rent in house shares or in state subsidised accom. A small percentage of people will earn/inhert enough to buy in the city. The majority will move a 45-120min commute outside the city when they want to start a family. Thats been the reality for decades around the world and looks strong favourite to remain so.

Anticipating a fundamental change in the way the world works is fine to speculate on, but terrible to base your decisions on or worse - mislead desperate 20 something year olds into believing their pipe dream of average priced 300k gaffs in Dublin is going to come to fruition.

A bit baffling that you need 10 staff to monitor it. Simple IT solution.

Does property have valid registration registration number

Does registration number correspond with post code

We had reports here of council staff and other public sector staff breaching these rules. Looking after there own, I suppose

Separately the most recent public sector pay deal had assurances built in that AI would Not replace existing jobs. I wonder does extend to a few lines of programming code that eliminates the need to monitor

Another one ex fianna fail now running as independent - Irish times

Limerick election candidate sought €360,000 in ‘go-away money’, Galway developer claims

Mr Pat O’Neill, who is from Clonmacken in Caherdavin, was a Fianna Fáil candidate in the 2019 local elections in North Limerick but left the party this year. He is now running as an Independent candidate in the June 7th elections.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/06/05/mary-lou-mcdonald-says-300000-price-tag-refers-to-affordable-homes-not-average-dublin-houses/

€300k average house prices in Dublin promise was click bait nonsense? I’m stunned….

Textbook case of trying to pretend government is a series ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ decisions that can keep everyone happy if you choose ‘correctly’ rather than the reality of it being a series of compromises. Prioritising one group over another etc.

When pushed on the downsides of your policies you either have to directly contradict yourself (eg 300k houses) or live in fantasy land - we wouldn’t change immigration or ask communities permission…we’d just talk to them and ‘explain’ it to them and they’ll be fine with it (I’m not joking, this was her view).

I wish Claire Byrne pushed her on the health system impacts of their tax policies reducing the net pay of every consultant doctor in the country by c.10% when we already can’t fill posts.

I am kinda suprised how quickly they came off their cheap housing schtick though given how much support it brought them. If she was slightly better prepared she could have danced around it.

Complaining is easy. Fixing is hard.

This is a bit beside the matter at hand, and I'm not having a go at you, but can we please stop referring to politicians and senior civil servants by their given names? These people are not our friends, quite the opposite in fact.

The new Bord Failte registration will not make any difference. AirBnb owners will just register with BF, get a number and continue short term letting. You just have to tick a box to say that you have planning, you dont have to prove it.

Also, Revenues only remit is to make sure that the tax is paid. Many AirBnb owners are tax compliant but not planning compliant.

Unsurprising. More funny-money on the way!