Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The buyers in 01, 06, 14 and 19 didn't know it was a good time to buy, and likely all evidence pointed to it being a poor time to buy.

People who bought in 2008 didn't know it was a terrible time to buy.

If there's one thing we learned, economists are constantly wrong in predicting Ireland's property market. As I said, you can only play the hand you're dealt and you only have the information available to you today.

Hindsight is 20/20.

Central Bank rules are 4 times salary, 4.5 times with an exemption. Maximum, cannot exceed this but can also offer less depending on people's circumstances.

The Central Bank's rules limit the maximum amount someone can borrow. This is four times your gross annual income if you're a first-time buyer and 3.5 times your gross annual income if you're a second-time or subsequent buyer. The same rules apply regardless of how much you earn. With an exemption a mortgage seeker can potentially borrow up to 4.5 times their income.  - https://www.bonkers.ie/guides/mortgage/what-are-the-central-banks-lending-rules/

They don't seem to have any credit card debt. They have a credit card with a limit of 14k on it which seems quite high (could indicate previous high usage of it) and now they want it reduced down to a 5k limit, no actual debt there.

Its all going over your head at this point. The posts above explain it perfectly to you. Choose to listen or not yourself.

The liability only counts as % of the total on the card not the full 14k, reducing it to 5k will help and showing non use of it over a prolonged period of time will reduce the liability even further. Would be looked upon far worse if it was 14k CC debt.

Well, like everyone else on the planet. I have no idea. If I did I would be rich beyond my wildest dreams at this point because i would have been putting that knowledge to work for me. Do you really have an idea yourself or have are you just guessing like everyone else?

they dont have any - credit card debt consistently zero, credit cards limit - 14k

yep point on nominal house prices is interesting for example many houses down the country selling for 150k most of 10 last years but huge jump last 2 years to 225k and more recentky 230k-250k

it sounds like alot but if you compare to price of a lunch 10 years about e.g. 10 or 12 euros to today about 18-22 euros it is a fairly similar change

the prices for nearly everything in this country have taken a massive jump up the last 2 years in particular... whether workers wages after significant tax deductions and massive rent etc. rises have kept pace is debatle - if we keep going at same pace our international competitiveness will suffer

I found BOI not bad either.

Avant are known to be picky and they do ask for some stupid documents.

Fully serviced sites being dezoned in the highest demand area in the country.

Fine Gael working hard to stop new supply

Fine Gael politician described as ‘a ringleader for dezoning land for housing in south Dublin

In 2018, we did not have:

Shared ownership

Relaxed mortgage rules

Subsidies to developers

Removal/reduction of various charges for developers

2018 to 2020 was a period of stability in house prices. Covid money printing and the introduction of these schemes and we're off to the races again.

With regard to your thesis that house prices have moved in line with wages since 2018 that seems to be highly questionable. Can you do the maths when you get a chance. Are you saying that if wages rise 5%, home prices should rise the same or more as multiples of annual salary are used to purchase

This report upto 2022 puts Dublin in severely unaffordable bracket

And this article from Jan 2024 puts it down to a sharp increase in tax units (individuals or couples earning > 100k). On the face of it this appears to be good news but most ftb are purchasing 2nd hand homes away from high demand areas. I conclude from this that new build prices are for the most part beyond the reach of the top 20% of income earners in the country. I think it is highly dangerous and unsustainable to have new property prices beyond this demographic and the preserve of an extortionate rental market, stl and social and affordable

Your thoughts?

And it looks like not many people applying for apprenticeships.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/05/30/apprentices-for-home-building-dropping-out-to-work-in-fast-food-sector-due-to-low-pay/

I always wonder do people from other higher wage countries (US, Canada, Australia, Switzerland etc.) constantly worry about not being competitive or is it a uniquely Irish thing? Our wage inflation recently has been slightly elevated vs prior years but so have most countries, including the cheap labour countries. If anything I suspect our inflation has been marginally lower than peers so our competitiveness on wages may have actually improved.

Over the long term you can be pretty sure wages will tick up 2-4% a year and house prices will follow similarly. So in around 25 years the base expectation would be the median full time wage in Ireland being over €100k and the current €100k jobs will pay €200k and the average new build in Dublin will be over €1m. If anything, these figures are conservative versus long term averages

We have l 100s of years of evidence of this in every country. It’s the stated policy of every major Central Bank, yet people are constantly predicting some prolonged period of deflation in Ireland which has pretty much never happened in any country (except Japan?)

we will have to see if the 110k jobs become 180k - big changes in the next 5 to 10 years with the introduction of AI into business may tell a very different story

and yes it is quite dangerous if very ordinary homes are outside the reach of those on 100k it says it all really

half the country will literally be waiting for the bank of mam and dad to die off to try and have any hope of getting on the propery ladder and even then after the tax man and siblings get a cut its looking dicier by the day here