Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138598#Comment_122138598

Funny how you didn't respond to the post for days, despite being online and posting in-between, but respond to being called out on your ducking the question within 9 minutes though eh?

How does doing any of that take the circa 65,000 households currently on HAP, at a cost of over €1bn per year to tax payers, off of HAP? Or let the state stop spending billions of euros leasing thousands of private sector housing units for social housing in addition?

We have tens of thousands of households unable to afford to rent in the private sector market, and unable to rent in it even if prices crashed by 50%. Which "offer incentives to the experts in large scale building, private developers, make finance easier to access, and overhaul the planning system" is highly unlikely to achieve I'm sure you'll readily admit.

What exactly do you propose is done with these people if not building of social housing?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138863#Comment_122138863

Most of what you post doesn’t make sense, it’s just raging against the system and saying the same thing over and over again, I just didn’t want you to have an inflated opinion of what affect your posts have on me, so I wanted to let you know that you are flattering yourself, nothing more.

I thought it would be obvious that ramping up development would increase supply. Instead of the State, with its lumbering inefficiencies and procrastination being relied on to build homes, incentivise private developers who have the expertise to build, is the best way.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138863#Comment_122138863

Your posts dont make any sense tbh. They are not based in reality at all. Ive stopped reading them myself, never mind responding to them. And now you have gone even further off the reservation and seem to be stalking people who are posting elsewhere but not responding to your precious posts.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139918#Comment_122139918

I have a Martha.

lordleitrim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139924#Comment_122139924

Brilliant!!

Sent from my iPhone

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141183#Comment_122141183

Glad to see new platforms coming on.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138910#Comment_122138910

My posts have a rather simple argument - the state needs to give up the largely non-interventionist supply side policies pursued in the housing market of the last 13 years, and instead return to building large scale social housing as it did for most of our history. It should be a simple enough concept to grasp.

You're the one posting that its absolutely not possible to do this, but failing to give any logical justification as to why given we've achieved it many times in the past, or any alternative solution to explain what we should do instead.

Your citing factors like a lack of construction workers when the CSO statistics on that have been posted multiple times in this thread, and they disprove you completely, would heavily suggest you're arguing out of blind ideology rather than factual knowledge.

Ramping up private sector development won't remove the 65,000 households currently on HAP, costing tax payers billions, and removing large numbers of houses from the private sector market, from reality. Thats the real world issue that you're apparently unable to provide a solution for.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139918#Comment_122139918

My posts are purely evidential based on 1) what our state achieved for many decades (large scale building of social housing) and 2) the very obvious failure of the current housing market, something heavily influenced by the last 13 years of the state not building social housing. They're both very much based in reality.

I've yet to see a single poster who disagrees with the idea of the building of large scale social housing so vehemently provide an actual, real world alternative. Because what we're doing currently as a country very obviously isn't working.

I simply suggested that I find it interesting that someone whos highly active on boards.ie, who online enough to post literally thousands of times a year, suddenly disappears without trace when asked a factual question. But reappears within 9 minutes when called out on his disappearance (to still not answer the question). Its a rather interesting debate style, no?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141701#Comment_122141701

Large council estates did not work in the past no matter how rose tinted your view of them are. Why do you think areas are synonymous with bad reputations?

We as a society just don't do social housing well. Before you quote other countries in Europe with a mixture of different groupings of people in them are shown to work they have a different culture to the Irish.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143037#Comment_122143037

What a load.

Most streets in the state are council built. Look near the centre of any town, city or village and there is council housing from 60/70s, many of these areas are very desirable and still have a significant proportion of council tenants.

The idea that all council only schemes are like ballymun is a lot of emotive nonsense not backed up by any statistics

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138572#Comment_122138572

Most School building up until the 80's was funded by a mixture of local and state funding. Sites were often provided from church owned land and was nearly always partially funded by local communities, which was arranged through local churches.

Presently 90% of children attend school until there Leaving certificate and about 80%++ of them go onto 3rd level In the 70's about 50-60% did the intercert and 25-40 at most did the Leaving certificate. And of those that did the LC less than 50%( loss than 20% of the overall student population) went on to 3rd level from 2nd level.

As late as the 90's when there was an extension needed to the local national school, the local community raised 10% of the cost of the building and the extra area needed for the extension was provi6from adjacent church land.

Between 1970 and 1995 the Irish education budget went from 107million to 2.5 billion a 250 fold increase in 25 years

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Irish-Government-expenditure-on-education-1970-1995-in-Source-CSO-2012_fig2_263703750#:~:text=actual%20expenditure%20continued%20to%20increased,and%20the%201990s%20(10.4%25).

It was just under 10 billion last year or a four fold increase in 30 years since 1995. Surpluses get swallowed by different spending choices.

This is a historical government spending government record since more or less the Inception of the state. If you go to Figure 3 it shows Gross National Investment since 1924. The boom in housing investment was during the 70/80's. But look at Education, Health, Justice etc

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/History-of-Public-Spending-in-Ireland.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjItvrO4pCGAxVRUEEAHdAIA8QQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0atR3wLaWec4t2xSGBaquM

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138863#Comment_122138863

Can you provide a link to where HAP is costing over 1 billion a year. I like to see it because its a figment of your imagination

Dav010

An example of the effect of incentives/waivers on building by private developers is being reported on in many of this mornings papers with a huge spike in commencements last month . Unfortunately my copy/paste isn’t working so I can’t link articles but if you go to independent.ie, there is one.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143911#Comment_122143911

He said he was “sceptical” that these figures would translate to more than 50,000 housing completions, however, with the firm pointing out that there was “little downside” for builders to issue commencement notices, but it was uncertain what proportion would actually be finished.

Under the terms of the waiver and rebate, the housing units must be completed by the end of 2026, so Goodbody said the lag between commencements and completions may be elongated.

O’Leary said the spike in commencements was likely not a “true reflection” of activity in the sector, however.

“To sustainably get to above 50K units per annum requires further improvements in funding, industry scale and land availability,” he said.

Seems like developers are prioritising commencements only - all resources into commencements for now to build a pipeline of levy free work up until 2026. But the total capacity remains the same. Now there will be lower than average completions for a while

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/housing-starts-surge-to-new-post-crash-record-as-developers-respond-to-waiver-extension/

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143636#Comment_122143636

So how did they get their reputations? Conspiracy?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143955#Comment_122143955

It is still an example of how incentivising private developers moves the construction sector, even allowing for that contributor’s skepticism.

combat14

with 2/3 young adults living at home as they cant afford rents or to buy a home we now have what seems to be the first warnings of a potential bubble as house prices rise over 10 consecutive months as interest rates start to fall

Experts warn of potential property bubble as prices double in a decade

First-time buyers now need average deposit of €52,500, bank figures show

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/experts-warn-of-potential-property-bubble-as-prices-double-in-a-decade/a721311346.html

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143961#Comment_122143961

There is massive diversity of outcomes in council estates across the country. Those that got little to no maintenance or facilities (and in recent times the cohort of people who's only profession is having children and claiming benefits - although these are in the minority), these estates saw worst results. Many streets and estates are fine, safe and majority council owned. You'd barely know other than the distinctive build styles.

The idea that any council housing turns into ballymun is a fallacy. Its the same hysteria that makes people think any high rise will turn into ballymun flats also.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144274#Comment_122144274

or €22,500 claiming HTB which is why most FTBs are going for new houses

timmyntc

So the states housing needs was projected based on low migration scenario, even though we have been tracking high migration for the past decade almost, with no signs of it slowing down. So expect official housing need estimates to be ramped up very soon.

minister O'Brien no doubt hoping to see an election before the housing commission targets are published, because it will not doubt show a massive failing so far. https://www.businesspost.ie/news/ireland-likely-to-need-between-56000-and-74000-new-homes-annually-up-to-2050/

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144538#Comment_122144538

Taking the lower figure, that would mean close to 1.5 million houses in the next 25 years. That's not even considering the infrastructure that would be required. Also, what would be the environmental impact of building on that level?

Suggestions like this really do demonstrate just what chasing the infinite growth genie has brought us. Already, there are enormous social issues from such policy, and they will get worse as time goes on.

I'll be forgiven for being a tad histrionic, but genuinely feel sorry for the children of today who will have to grow up in this investment fund with a flag. Maybe it's time policy started considering the long-term best interests of future generations of Irish people and not just the short term needs of a selection of people who are here today. But who cares eh….

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144408#Comment_122144408

Then are you saying its the people rather than the area? If so how do you plan to deal with the people issue?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144934#Comment_122144934

Evict people for non payment of social housing rent for starters - the state have kind of given up and don't bother because they'll have to be housed regardless and it's just shuffling deckchairs, what they fail to realise is that actually evicting for non payment is the deterrent necessary to get people to pay.

Extreme anti social behaviour from social tenants should also carry a threat of eviction. You need an effective deterrent for these things - in the past there very much was.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144991#Comment_122144991

Whilst conceptually these things make sense and many would agree (myself included), how do they actually work in practice?

Leave them homeless, put them into a hotel at an even higher cost, send them to a compound on the Blasket Islands?

Just doesn’t seem possible in a civilised & fairly left leaning society.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144991#Comment_122144991

Do you honestly see any politican agreeing to this?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145027#Comment_122145027

They can declare homeless and seek emergency accommodation. And many people already in emergency accommodation would gladly take a social house and pay for the privilege. After having a stint in emergency accommodation I'd say very few would refuse to pay their social rent if they were eventually rehoused by the council.

Yes it's a pain to have to do logistically evicting and turning over stock etc, but it needs to be done else there is literally no reason to pay rent to the council. You need the threat of some repurcussions or the whole system falls down.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145040#Comment_122145040

A few years ago, no.

In 1-2 years time though the mood will have shifted further, we are currently in the middle of a lurch to to the right on some issues. If the issue of non payment came up in the news today, you would be surprised of the support for evictions for those who refuse to pay.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145048#Comment_122145048

I think this is sensible, but it would take all of 5 minutes for the first case of:

‘troubled single mother of 4 young kids sleeping rough after local authority forcibly remove her from her home after she falls on hard times and can’t meet payments.’

Then you’d have Mary Lou waving her picture around in the Dail.

Nice idea. Never happening.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146569#Comment_122146569

I agree, but a hardening of attitudes has been and still is happening in this country. People have less and less sympathy for those seen as not paying their way these days, so eventually those kind of examples will not really provoke much outrage other than from a select few.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143803#Comment_122143803

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40888892.html

"More than €1.22bn was spent on rent subsidies for those in the private rental market" — bear in mind this is from 2021, the figure is higher now.

I also note that rather long post above this also failed to answer my direct question so I'll repeat it:

"What exact percentage of funding did the religious orders provide for
our schools and hospitals? "Sigificant funds" is a very dubious claim."

Talking about your local national school, or about the numbers of children completing their leaving cert, is some serious deflection.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145027#Comment_122145027

Leaving the problem tenants homeless is unfortunately not politically (or morally, when they have children) viable, but a fairly workable real world solution would be to evict the problem tenants from more desireable social housing locations (say any in RPZs) and only offer them alternative accomodation elsewhere.

An offshore compound is rather a stretch, but even just to places outside of the major cities would be a very helpful incentive while not being heartless.

But that would require the availability of empty social housing to move them to - which comes back to the original problem of not enough new social housing being built.