Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122166074#Comment_122166074

I get that, but it isn’t sustainable

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122166094#Comment_122166094

Irrelevant (holy hell quoting the Ditch, says a lot about you).

Air BnB sells a individual unit nights across available units. Of course there is going to be more properties listed at any given moment.

It is in no way comparable.

Holy God, if we are that this level of debate, what hope do we have?

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122166109#Comment_122166109

I completely get where they are coming from though, all it is moving numbers around and your assumptions.

At a high level, it is saying we should have levels near Germany at around 520 units per 1,000 or around the EU average of 500 where as we have about 420. My guesstimate gets us to about 450 per 1,000, theirs closer to Germany.

Mine is basically closer to the OECD average, theirs the EU. I’d note that quite a few EU countries including Germany have muddled data that includes secondary homes. We don’t have that.

My contention comes from what I believe would normalise supply for this country, not necessarily a direction of where policy makers might want us to go. Household size here should continue to fall, but I don’t think it will ever get to Scandinavian levels. There is a major issue with how Ireland ascribes young adults housing “need” but I also don’t see a scenario where Irish people move out at 18. Attempts to bring our studio sizes even with 10% of those countries are balked at and our third level system remains disproportionally weighted towards staying at home. You can crib about the system but I’d say it has served us quite well. You can also argue it should change, but I’m not sure it’s a major policy priority at the moment.

I’d also add that whilst I do think we need to get students and young adults out of house shares, it is not necessarily the worst thing if we have stock like that (which we do, we have an awful lot of under live in homes still). The key is the option, a studio apartment should be within reach of a reasonably well paid person at 25, at the moment is it out of reach.

Anyway, I think we’ll settle at 2.3 to 2.4 household size rather than many EU states rate (more in line with English speaking countries). Of course the housing commission will look to all possibilities - household size is by far the biggest determining factor.

Back to the core point, my personal belief is that we need to be more towards OECD levels. I think we were 85,000 units behind par from 2010 to 2018. We have already seen how increased supply helped largely cap market rates in Dublin (although these are at extraordinary levels built up over many years).

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122167768#Comment_122167768

Central bank borrowing rules are far more of a factor in Dublin prices levelling off than increased supply. The affordability ceiling has been reached, it is not down to dynamics of supply and demand.

Housing shortage in Dublin is still quite acute

timmyntc

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/laws-needed-to-protect-social-housing-from-privatisation-housing-commission/

Housing commission to recommend no more selling of social homes to tenants. And also that social rents be increased to give state some more income to invest in further housing.

If only they looked at the figures for social housing arrears, then they might see the problem. Social housing needs eviction or revenue collection for non payments, in order to secure income stream. The problem isn't the rate

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122165894#Comment_122165894

I do find it amazing how people concentrate on little things that make hardly any difference rather than look for parts of the problem that would make a difference. Its not just not just regarding housing that this happens in peoples brains.

AirBnB is nothing.

Its precisely this sniping around the edges due to populist demand that has gone a long way to get us to where we are now.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168056#Comment_122168056

I find it amazing people can just baulk at "a couple of months" supply tbh and say Airbnb is a nothing issue. It's a shambles the world over.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168106#Comment_122168106

But it is a nothing issue. People are making out that it is going to solve the housing problems. Find something that will actually have an impact to concentrate on.

AdamD

No one thing is going to solve the housing crisis, but a couple months of supply at the swish of a pen certainly shouldn't be laughed at.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168056#Comment_122168056

You could definitely dicuss the level of impact that AirBnB has, but it's incorrect to say that the concept is nothing.

One of the reasons it rubs people up so much is the signal it sends to those being lashed with high rents and a housing market seemingly determined to keep them locked out. Then, you have people with a place to live themselves (more than likely) and the privilege of a second property they rent out to tourists. Lots of units around, but good luck and f*ck ya unless you're a tourist.

It's another signal that the Government couldnt care less about rents/first time buyers.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168170#Comment_122168170

You can do both; you could tackle it as part of a suite of measures to increase supply.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168221#Comment_122168221

Maybe think about how to ENCOURAGE airbnbs back into the letting market. We all know why those landlords left the rental market. How about we find ways (not a tick to beat them with because if anything has been proven its that the stick isnt working, its having the opposite effect) to encourage anyone who feels that airbnb is their best/safest option for their asset to bring that asset back into the rental business instead.

Or we could continue moaning about airbnbs like they are the cause of it and preventing them being airbnbs is the final solution. Its maybe 1% of the solution, if even that. It takes more effort to beat them back in than to love them back in.

Padre_Pio

Remember how important airbnbs are to the local economy now so many hotel rooms are filled with homeless and IPAs.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168221#Comment_122168221

Just to be clear, those who short let have made a determined decision, not to offer their property to tenants. There is no guarantee whatsoever that if Hosts cease shortletting, that they would rent to tenants, or even sell.

Gary_dunne

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122167419#Comment_122167419

We don't need it to be indefinitely sustainable but we do need a massive increase in building, preferably more than double over the next decade to make up the shortfall.

As I said if you didn't own your own home and were looking to purchase one your viewpoint would be drastically different.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168000#Comment_122168000

Nope- I was referring to rents in the main. There is a clear link between the uptick in supply and a levelling off in rent in the last two years.

I would not dispute though that there are other factors that influence price. We saw that both with the post GFC and Covid.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168056#Comment_122168056

If we start off with 18,000 Air BnB properties.

Let’s say half of them are exclusively for the purpose of Air BnB and not rent a room / actually short term in nature.

The let’s consider that a lot of them are actually holiday homes, ie they are in the same places that people don’t want to live in full time.

Ronan Lyons did a piece on this during Covid. We had a clear instance of these leaving the Air BnB market and coming back to the rental market. It made very little difference.

I do get that the little things add up but this gets a ridiculous amount of air time. When someone mentioned the opposite from silver bullet solutions ie that rent pressure zones has people holding back supply from the market, this is either denied by the same people who drone on about Air BnB or they just default to a “**** landlords, seize the property” mindset. It isn’t serious.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168403#Comment_122168403

Then bring in real vacant property taxes. I don't believe airbnb is killing our market but it isn't helping. We should be doing everything in our power to fix the biggest issue in the country. I don't really know why this is remotely worth an argument

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168431#Comment_122168431

Well we do. The most successful countries are the ones who have consistent supply of units across all elements of housing. That consistent supply from my review is about 4 to 5 a year per 1,000.

I don’t deny we will need to increase to 50k over the next few years, and possibly 60k+ by the end of the decade.

To be clear though, if our population is at say 6m by the end of this decade (which would be a very high number blowing through even more up to date estimates), a 66k output would be 11 per 1,000. That would be extraordinary and dwarf anything in Europe.

It is very easy to ignore the impact of retrofitting too.

I personally think a 6 to 7 per 1,000 consistent target of supply would be a better and more sustainable target. That is not to say we shouldn’t overshoot that- as the Housing Commission notes, our “plans” are often more restrictive in nature than helpful.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168339#Comment_122168339

Well that’s part and parcel of the immature debate that often permeates on anything housing related. Feeding into emotion rather than logic.

Gary_dunne

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168515#Comment_122168515

So when I say we need to double or treble the builds you say "I get that, but it isn’t sustainable" then when I say we don't need them to double or treble it indefinitely you say "Well we do" Do we or don't we need to?

We need it to be at 60k now not by the end of the decade!

It's fantastic that you as a homeowner think that 6 to 7 per 1000 is sufficient, leaving us looking to buy a property locked in constant bidding wars and keeping the value of your home at a record high.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168515#Comment_122168515

Comparing to European units per 1000 per annum is irrelevant - they do not have the significant existing housing deficit we do. 250k units needed to account for existing demand right now, this pushes up the units needed per year significantly

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168543#Comment_122168543

It's fairley emotive for a lot people when it feels as if the system isn't working for you, despite you doing all the right things.

People are right to feel annoyed about how housing policy is impacting their lives.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168512#Comment_122168512

It isn’t an argument, it just will not achieve the benefits you envisage. Instead of focusing on short let’s, perhaps it would be better to address why it is that property owners do not want tenants.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168707#Comment_122168707

But that’s down to the people whipping that up. Same goes for migration.

The frustrating thing in Ireland is that we have these short term bursts of emotive anger and it often leads to sub optimal policy making.

Rents go up a crazy degree- demands for rent controls. We then react and bring in these controls in a long term manner that is bad for housing.

This is also evidence with historic debates around hotels and now office building. The thing right now is a demand to stop new office construction because there is slackening demand. This is reactionary and is demanding state intervention when none is needed. Worse, when demand picks back up, we could have stupid regulations in place that stop the market getting going again. And people call this “leaving it to the market”.

We also saw this with the “no family homes” lark when developments came back with studios, 1 and 2 bedroom apartments. This is despite us having definitive data that we have an abundance of 3+ bed types of homes and not enough 1 and 2 beds! Councils now have stupid regulations in place that limit what capital can do, and it isn’t based on data and more on feelings.

Air BnB should be regulated and limited for sure. But it should be on planning grounds. And we need to be clear that the impact is limited.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168695#Comment_122168695

Eh bud, that is literally one of the main metrics for assessing shortfalls.

I’d also add that Europe has housing deficit a in plenty of places, despite this “only in Ireland” narrative that goes around.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122166903#Comment_122166903

1. I'll repeat so, since you seem to be desperately trying to avoid admitting you have no actual figures: so thats a "I have no evidence" for your claim so? You've provided zero sources for exactly what % of the "sigificant amount" of funding you're claiming was paid for by religious orders. Talking about general increases in state education funding is not evidence of religious funding in any way, its peak whataboutery.

2.

"The new figures show Fine Gael-led governments spent €3.2bn on
Rent Supplement, €1.8bn on the Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS),
€3.5bn on the Housing Assistance Payment (HAP) and €900m on long-term
leasing schemes. The total figures across all these taxpayer-funded
schemes amount to €9,583,731,000" [1]

€3.5bn spent specifically on HAP. Close to €10bn on rental supplements overall, a complete waste of tax payer euros that just serves to drive up the price of renting and buying houses for actual tax payers in the private sector rental market hugely.

So just to clarify, is your argument that you think this €10bn spent is sound government housing policy, and you wish it to continue and expand, the way it has been going?

Or do you think that perhaps all logic would suggest it could have been used to actually build large numbers of social housing, assets that the government would now own long term and would actually serve to reduce rents?

[1] https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/sinn-fein-in-election-attack-over-fine-gaels-10bn-spend-on-landlords/a2003795417.html

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168550#Comment_122168550

I don’t think getting to 66k tomorrow is sustainable, nope.

The answer nobody wants to hear is that we do not want a violent shift in value, we need real cuts over a few years. This is partly why the “€300k Dublin gaff” is complete nonsense.

Again, 11 per 1,000 is an insane amount of output. And that is with us getting to a 6m population (it’s currently at 5.2m).

People just throw out these numbers and ignore that our output right now is actually very good in a European context. If we get to 7 per 1,000 this year (36k) and can sustain that for a decade, supply issues more than fall away.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168963#Comment_122168963

We have one of the youngest populations in Europe, one of the worst existing housing deficits, and are projected to see some of the highest population growth in Europe.

Why you feel it's fit to compare our current output to those of our European peers and then exclaim "everythings fine, nothing to see here" I do not know.

We need to be building well in excess of other countries in Europe because none have the same pent up demand or projected forward demand as Ireland does.

Gary_dunne

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168963#Comment_122168963

Don't be ridiculous I don't mean build 66k tomorrow and you know it. We need a drastic increase in building and your 36k figure isn't enough. Do you really believe that you know better than the Housing commission?

All of us non home owners would very much love a violent shift in value so your nobody statement is untrue. It is you as a home owner that do not.

You say that our output is very good, why are house prices sky rocketing? Why are there bidding wars far over the asking rate all over the country? Why are there so few rental properties available?

I'm glad that you are satisfied with the market as it is when you already own a home. I'm happy with the way things are and that's all that matters.