Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Blut2

(I say all of that as someone who voted for FG in both 2011 and 2016 too, for what its worth. I would have said immediately post recession their plan was absolutely worth a try. But I just think anyone looking at the housing figures and progress through any sort of objective, non-ideological lense, now, 10 years later, can very easily see it hasn't worked at all and we need to radically change direction).

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122077984#Comment_122077984

I think that’s fair enough to want to give it a try. I’m not sure there’s much chance it happens anytime soon but if it does my prediction is:

Massive cost overruns, government procurement/bureaucracy causing all kinds of delays, tonnes of corruption accusations (most misguided, a few legit), oireachtas committees for each scandal, every poorly designed fire hazard or other evidence of defective workmanship leading to taxpayer bailouts

And crucially, fewer houses built for a higher cost.

Hopefully I’ll be wrong.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122078146#Comment_122078146

Sounds very like the current system

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122078146#Comment_122078146

If FG are out of government after the next election it would be very surprising if a government with SF as the largest party didn't ramp up state building of housing massively. Its both a stated goal of the party and entirely in their ideological wheelhouse. Even if FF are a coalition party they've historically had no major ideological issues with state development of housing - the ironclad ideological objections are all from FG - so they would be malleable on the issue.

The corruption aside none of those problems happened with previous large scale state building of housing in the state, so why would they happen this time?

And state corruption is far less problematic now across the entire system than it was 30 or 50 years ago, so even that is likely to be far less of a problem. We've come a long way from the Haughey years, as a country, thankfully.

State built housing is if anything known for being built to a much higher than required standard if you talk to anyone in the construction industry whos worked on it also. The Celtic Tiger apartments, mica scandals etc, that have required billions of euros of taxpayer bailouts in the last few decades, have all been from private sector builds that were focused on taking shortcuts to cut construction costs.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122075709#Comment_122075709

The area has not seen a 20% increase in house prices over the last 12 months.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122080977#Comment_122080977

the corruption was always there…When they built CUH in cork there were a boom in building extensions around the city and it wasn’t from extra money in people’s pockets but more to with the availability of cheap materials which was no coincidence. The same thing happened for every large scale public development including council estates.. wrong materials ordered, outright theft, material’s slightly damaged and rejected, discount for bulk buying with discount not passed on etc…the list is endless.

Yes certain things may have improved but peoples attitudes to the government picking up the bill hasn’t changed….All that will happen is a different gravy train

timmyntc

To do proper state built housing like those schemes of the 50s and 60s would require a national body and a small set of pre-made plans to be used up and down the country, like how the OPW back in the day came up with free to use drawings for houses, schoolhouses etc of a given standard

A limited run of designs for 2 and 3 story terraced social/cost rental housing. Then a body like LDA goes through procurement and tendering. We will never go back to direct labour through county councils, the expertise is gone.

Also having different teams and staffs across all LAs means duplication of roles and experience is not shared - more resources to LDA or similar would have to be the approach

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122078146#Comment_122078146

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122081104#Comment_122081104

All valid concerns, but can I ask ye both where ye stand when you see the state is paying over 500 and 600k for affordable 1 and 2 bed apartments in an area where an investment fund has purchased building(s) with 61 (1,2 and 3 bed apartments) working out at 280k per apartment in December 2023

Do you think that the state should stop immediately and look at other options

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084389#Comment_122084389

I don’t know the specifics of that case but I have oft been alarmed at the prices the State is willing to pay for social housing.
I would see this as evidence the State can’t even be trusted to procure built houses appropriately. Imagine the disaster they’d make out of the much more difficult task of actually building them from scratch.

They’re in a difficult spot though. Because everyone wants more spending on social housing. How best to do this?

- Don’t buy = wasting money on HAP. Inflating rents
- Buy new builds = you’re overpaying and stopping FTBs getting them
- But second hand = you’re inflating the market

My moral view is that state should never ever house anybody for (close to) free in a house that a median income couple couldn’t afford. This would likely limit them to only buying second hand homes in less desireable areas. That brings its own social problems and would be wildly unpopular - therefore we have this bizarre situation where lots of social housing is in estates where only the top 20% of workers could dream of buying.

But imagine a politician suggesting there should be no social housing in North Wicklow or South Dublin because it’s a poor use of taxpayer money and just ‘unfair’. Most people in the private market can’t live there, so why should there be any expectation of social housing there. They’d be lynched

I know you’ll say they should build at scale, cheaply in all areas. My belief is they would make an absolute shambles of this and create all sorts of other problems.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084657#Comment_122084657

There's a lot of comparing now to social housing of the past

Firstly most social housing schemes in the past were successful, it's the worst that get public attention not the best or the median or average

Second, we are looking at housing for low to median average waged workers rather than low income to high unemployment of the past. Today is not comparable to the past in terms of anti social behaviour outcomes

Third we are on around median wages and cover our own housing costs. The last place I would want to live with kids is a very wealthy area (which those apartments are in) they will come home every day from school with kids having the latest tech, fashion etc. That's very difficult for an income dis advantaged to deal with. The local schools will have the most expensive uniforms, contributions etc.

In relation to spending, we have very successful semi states, the most successful is in the provision and maintenance of complex infrastructure in the ESB which is making profits in excess of 800million per anum operating domestically and internationally and well able to outsource where needed.

The problems are not rocket science and not beyond our "knowledge economy". The starting point should be removing politics from housing as quickly as possible

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084657#Comment_122084657

The big issue its not even just the state buying social houses outright at hugely inflated prices though - they've for years now been signing hugely expensive long term leases on private sector apartments, which is surely the worst of all worlds. Massive cost, taking housing off the private sector market, over paying, and no asset to show for it long term. ie:

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/state-to-sink-another-e450m-into-leasing-of-1000-social-housing-units/

That aside, the moral hazard problem (and the ruinous financial cost to the state of leasing it) of social housing in very affluent areas that you outline (which is broadly reasonable I think) would be at least partly solved if we engaged in large scale social and affordable housing construction in cheaper locations.

DLRCOCO for example has a social housing wait time of approx 10 years now. If someone on that housing list was given the offer of either an apartment in DLR in 10+ years time, or a house in Athlone in 6 months, the vast majority would take the latter. Especially if HAP was no longer an option while waiting.

Anyone who very much wanted to stay in the area wouldn't be forced to leave. But they would have an incentive to leave. And with reduced demand in the area the state could stop this panic buying/leasing at massively overinflated prices.

Villa05

Housing now is the greatest threat to the economy followed by the debt incurred to keep rents and prices at nose bleed levels. The reverse evolution experiment continues

http://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0502/1446846-rent-index/

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084657#Comment_122084657

It would be 'wildy unpopular' with most of the media & our noisy NGO ecosystem, but it would be sweet music to the type of people who get up early in the morning. Who was the government elected to represent again?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088360#Comment_122088360

Rent caps are failing to limit rental price increases, who could possibly have seen this coming

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088411#Comment_122088411

The 'people who get up early in the morning' was a comment made by Leo who, as leader of FG, f*cking tanked the last election for his party and lost 15 seats.

So, not really sure the Government was elected to represent that particluar viewpoint.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088531#Comment_122088531

The only way FG represent people that get up early in the morning is by pushing them further and further away from their employment thereby ensuring they have to get up earlier in the morning and get home much later

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088411#Comment_122088411

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088411#Comment_122088411

I agree but the most popular party in the country right now has three core economic pillars

• Higher income taxes
• Abolish our only wealth tax
• More social housing

Its clearly the flavour of the day politically

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122088937#Comment_122088937

Better start watering that money tree so.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122089239#Comment_122089239

While I have concerns about the most popular party in the country, very few could go through a forest of money trees faster than FFG.

When it's pointed out to ye that the state is paying double the price for "affordable homes" when compared to investment fund who will put back in the market for the highest rents in the city. What hope is there for new entrants?

Are ye that much scared that ye will sacrafice the children of the country again

What part of the calculation do ye not understand, plus continuation of such policies will guarantee what ye appear to most fear will occur. Why don't ye put pressure on them to fix it properly

Villa05

Reverse evolution results:

But this is not an option for everybody, and the ERSI has also found that high rents are pushing increasing numbers of working people into poverty - one-third of people on the poverty line are working full-time and have third-level degrees

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/property/cork-limerick-see-highest-rent-29097790

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/2024/05/02/most-dublin-companies-losing-staff-to-housing-shortage-survey-shows/

Almost two thirds of Dublin companies have lost staff or potential recruits because of the housing situation in the city, according to a new poll

Remember the 80s when you might have 1000 applications for 1 job, well look at us niw

‘Huge’ housing queue: 15,000 bids for 75 council homes

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-41386699.html

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122089396#Comment_122089396

Build council estates deal with anti social behaviour deal with non payment of rent problem decreased significantly.

We are always been told of mixed tenure developments in Europe and how they work so well. Why not in Ireland? See the above paragraph.

Where exactly do you think a vast majority of our tax take comes from? Corporation tax and income tax from those employed therein and the support businesses of all the above ie the multipler effect.

We are a small open economy who need direct investment to fund day to day running of the country. We need to import building materials and we are not big enough of a customer to bulk buy building materials from above so we must take the market price.

It is all well and good wanting to give everyone what they want but funding it is a different story. It is always easy in opposition saying what should be done it's different when you have to deliver it.

Mods I am not political and if you deem the above too political please feel free to amend or delete as you see fit.

herbalplants

David Mc Williams writing how in today's Ireland rich people out bidding each other on ex council houses and living in houses originally built for poor people. Isn't that the truth!

I spot houses which are ex council for the tune of 750k, absolutely insane.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122096991#Comment_122096991

You wouldn't pay that for one in the Island Field.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122096991#Comment_122096991

Location location I suppose.

The population of Dublin and most other cities has at least doubled in the past 50 years when these houses were build.

Shame the transportation systems haven't advanced at all, bar the Luas.

I can understand people wanting to avoid rush hour commutes from dormitory towns

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122076291#Comment_122076291

why dont the central bank raise the lending to 6 or even 10 times salary and problem solved .. nearly all houses be affordable then

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122097430#Comment_122097430

Yes transportation needs big improvement.

Blut2

"Take-up of office space in Dublin dropped to a three-year low between January and March, new data shows.

The latest report from BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland reveals that just 16,310 sqm of space was leased during the three-month period.

It follows a surge in the number of offices completed during the quarter, with 84,000 sqm of space added to the market.

This is more than the amount of office space completed in the whole of 2023.

This combination of strong supply and weak demand caused the vacancy rate to jump from 13.1% in December to 14.5% in March."

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0507/1447239-dublin-office-space-take-up-hits-three-year-low/

You'd think/hope this soft crash would result in a re-allocation of construction resources (and developable land) from offices to housing. But that should also have been incentivized to happen years ago if our government had any clue what it was doing so who knows I guess.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086539#Comment_122086539

Indeed.

The renting for social housing of high end apartment schemes in the best & most expensive parts of Dublin and therefore the country, is mad stuff.

And its not always just part 5, 10% or 20% going to social housing.

There are new schemes in DLR where the apartments are 100% social, even though 90% of earners couldnt afford to live there themselves!

Councils only having a duty of care, via the reduction of social housing lists, in order to accomodate social tenants & whilst ignoring the rest of society, is a big problem.

Its as if the only metric that counts for the council is, "have we reduced the social housing list?"

Anyone that doesnt qualify for that list is in direct competition with the local council that they directly fund, as far as accomodation is concerned.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122108147#Comment_122108147

Yes good few companies are changing their office location in Dublin . That is only due to the fact they are getting new leases at good discounted rate.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122108147#Comment_122108147

It was abundantly clear by mid-2020 that the whole Spencer Dock developments alone were a bubble in the making. Owners of older office stock will be in serious trouble, assuming they have not already called insolvency.

Long stopped believing the goverment is clueless. The shortage is intentional.