Russia - threadbanned users in OP

weisses · 01-05-2024 09:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084375#Comment_122084375

Does Russia want Odessa ?

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 09:57AM

https://www-moscowtimes-eu.translate.goog/2024/04/30/u-rossiyan-nachali-massovo-konfiskovivat-imuschestvo-po-politicheskim-statyam-a129610?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

They started confiscating properties of anyone the regime doesn’t like.

Podge_irl · 01-05-2024 09:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084345#Comment_122084345

No, because that is based on a hypothetical of stopping Western support for Ukraine and is focused on Russia's intentions moreso than their abilities.

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 10:01AM

“Incite”

yeh even their unintentional typos give an insight into the aims of Russian muck spreaders

weisses · 01-05-2024 10:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084731#Comment_122084731

You cannot have it both ways…

Stating Russia reaching Odessa is just as farcical as, Russia wont stop at the borders of Ukraine (stated by various high ranking military and politicians in the west.

If western support stops then Ukraine is in deep trouble, we all can agree on that, but anyone with a functioning brain can do the math and would come to the conclusion that any landgrab beyond Ukraine going westwards cannot be obtained by using a conventional military strategy by Russia. Our leadership stating "Russia wont stop after taking Ukraine" is as farcical

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 10:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084694#Comment_122084694

Well this NY times article thinks so

https://archive.ph/DNmrQ

And so does Putin

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/11/putin-says-ukraines-odesa-is-historically-russian-reality-is-more-complicated-a83612

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084800#Comment_122084800

Starting a pointless war in which half a million Russians died and the largest country in world got slightly larger while becoming a bigger pariah than North Korea with incalculable damage to Russian society, culture, economy was also “farcical”

Yet here we are, in third year of Putin’s Three Day war with human wave offensives (for square meters of mud at a time) under the Zwastika banner

what are your thoughts on points made here?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084504#Comment_122084504

Your whole theory boils down to “Putin won’t be so stupid” a point that was made in first few hundred pages of this thread. Only for this theory to be shattered when Putin did start an unimaginably stupid war.

That NATO might win a war with Russia might be little consolation to the millions living next to Russia who would die, be raped and looted before the cavalry arrives (if it arrives under El Presidente Trumpo) or even to us on the far end of Europe who would immediately feel the economic and refugee shockwaves.

IMHO that leaders are ringing alarm bells and not being complacent about Putin and his perverted version of Russia is a good thing, many have scoffed at the alarm bells in early 2022 only to endup with borscht on their faces

Podge_irl · 01-05-2024 10:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084800#Comment_122084800

Sure I can, they are different scenarios.

Russia won't stop at the borders of Ukraine if the West stops supporting Ukraine and their resistance eventually collapses.

Western support hasn't stopped and thus the idea that "the only question is whether Russia reaches Odessa" is clearly absurd.

Russia's whole invasion of Ukraine began by not using conventional military strategy. They are currently involved in all manner of non-conventional activities in Western countries. They literally have troops west of Ukraine in Moldova right now.

roosterman71 · 01-05-2024 10:49AM

Without watching, I'd say he's talking through his hoop. Primarily because Brand is the interviewer. And he's away with the fairies and doesn't interview people who would be fundamentally opposed to his thoughts.

Are there any indications that the Ukraine population want elections? Googling it shows no stories about Ukrainians wanting elections.

Where is it reported that the American public are asking about the Ukrainian leadership? Why even would they care? Again, google showing no articles of the American public questioning the leadership in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy (get his name right at least) is under constant threat of assassination, but still has the balls to be out and about through the country and the front lines of the war.

weisses · 01-05-2024 10:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084843#Comment_122084843

The war Putin started wasn't pointless if/when executed correctly, The tactical plan was decent but it went pear-shaped pretty quick for various reasons. I do believe in hindsight Putin would have never started this war knowing what the outcome would be. But he went in fully committed and he couldn't back out of it then without losing face. I don't have a theory as such so I don't know how this imaginary theory of mine could be shattered. In fact I always thought he was going to invade with the whole build up, western intelligence warning Ukraine. The one not buying it and not listening to the alarm bells was Zelensky.

I just do the numbers game, and doing the numbers I can safely say that Russia doesn't even have the numbers to control Ukraine and containing any partisan activity within Ukraine.. let alone even attacking a NATO country.

How in gods name do you think "millions living next to Russia who would die, be raped and looted before the cavalry arrives" ? Just give me a realistic scenario as to how such an event would unfold with NATO involved

weisses · 01-05-2024 10:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084903#Comment_122084903

What non conventional tactic was used to do a landgrab by Russia … That's the context I used.

By using your logic their current GPS jamming is a prelude to invade a NATO country right ?

I didn't say Russia would reach Odessa ..Its one of their goals yes

If western aids stops do you think Russia can reach Odessa? … That scenario isn't absurd, just look how precarious the situation has become with a few months of US not giving anything. and the EU incapable of filling that gap

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 10:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084968#Comment_122084968

Putin launches a nuke on a missile from Kaliningrad and takes out a city in Poland or Baltics and threaten anyone who intervenes with same treatment.

Would it be stupid? Yes, has Putin a history of stupid gambles? Yes

Does he care if millions of Russians die in potential retaliation? I doubt it, would anyone in Russia stop him? Unlikely

He has already shown clearly he doesn’t care if Russia is destroyed, all he wants is his name in history books. And you know what billions across the “global south” and far left/right here would celebrate the “rules based world order” being shattered because they blame that for all their problems.

Even if he doesn’t go down the nuclear route, a 100,000 conscripts can rampage for weeks through Eastern Europe before being eliminated, in that time the markets would panic and implode and people living there would also panic of course. Would Putin care if they die? Nope, will NATO cross the border in retaliation? Nope, precisely because they will fear a nuclear escalation.
In short Putin can cause much damage with little personal repercussions to himself, which would be little consolation to those who be have to endure his crap, and this is why imho alarm bells are ringing.

Podge_irl · 01-05-2024 11:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084995#Comment_122084995

There are literally Russian troops in Moldova today. The "separatist" movement in the Donbas was a Russian invention. They will happily sit there destabilising border countries as much as they possibly can with unconventional tactics.

Could they reach Odessa if Western aid stopped? I'd lean towards no but I'm not certain. What is absurd was Musk's declaration that "the only question is whether they reach Odesa", when there are multiple other questions (Will US support stop? Will European support ramp up to replace it? Will the Baltic states and Poland become more aggressive if Ukraine is in serious trouble? etc etc etc) before you even get into a hypothetical scenario where they might be able. In short, he's a moron.

weisses · 01-05-2024 11:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085004#Comment_122085004

Can i suggest you put away the Clancy novels for a while. I asked for a realistic scenario.

So you are saying that a 100.000 conscripts can be found… shipped to the border of a NATO country. all logistics being prepared etc etc (same as prior to the invasion in Ukraine) which takes time. followed by an invasion and they can continue this invasion for weeks before being destroyed.?!

My theory is that they will be obliterated prior to even make it to the border once they are on the move. The west had solid intel thar Russia wasn't having training exercises prior to the invasion. They knew exactly when they would attack.

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 11:18AM

When one stops thinking of Russia as a country and the Modern Putinism brainwashed Russians as Soviets 2.0

And realises that it’s basically a criminal organisation that hijacked the largest country in world and is using well trodden fascist methodology to control a population of 140 million people to do things that are clear against the short/medium/long term interests of those people

A terrorist organisation headed by Putin which already has a track record of attacking multiple neighbours, shooting down planes, killing opposition, using nuclear and chemical poisons

Then it’s not a big leap to seeing them step up unconventional and conventional attacks outisde of Ukraine

Putin’s manifesto and his propaganda network literally daily tell us they want to bring down the current world order and replace it with their oligarchic dystopia

To dismiss them as a threat is the height of stupidity

Furze99 · 01-05-2024 11:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085004#Comment_122085004

Ah the nuclear drum being banged again, how many times on this thread is that?

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 11:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085168#Comment_122085168

I think you missed the point being made

let’s do everything to ensure Putin is contained and loses in Ukraine so he doesn’t get any more stupid ideas and spreads the misery further

It is also extremely dangerous to underestimate Putin and Russia as we have a clear pattern of stupid gambles just like it’s dangerous to overestimate them (aim of their propaganda)

nigeldaniel · 01-05-2024 01:20PM

I don't share some folks pessimism for Ukraine right now. Even those in Ukraine itself including the army seem to think the worst. I seem to see it differently. Russia has spent its ground forces badly and are not likely to have much left over by the end of this summer. Put it another way even if Ukrainian forces need to step back from time to time I can still see them having the upper hand long term. Russia and it's PR boyos in the media can do nothing apart from sowing doubt and fear. Two things I have little time for myself. For now I am happy for Putin to be giving false hope his plans are working. He and his unhinged mouthpieces are in for a very unhappy retirement in the long term.

rogber · 01-05-2024 01:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085770#Comment_122085770

As you say, almost all informed commentators disagree with you, and most Ukrainian voices also (including their own military). These people are not pushing Russian propaganda, they are dealing with a brutal reality. Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned and this is unlikely to change, there is zero chance of them driving Russia from the occupied territories in the foreseeable future and they are doing a heroic job putting up such resistance so far. The new military aid will give them a reasonable chance of defending what they have, but nobody honestly believes it will turn the tide. Unless Putin is ousted from within Russia, we will still be here next year, guaranteed.

firemansam4 · 01-05-2024 02:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085770#Comment_122085770

This is pure delusion, and if this kind of thinking was prevalent in Western nations it would probably do more harm than good.

Ukraine are screaming from the rooftops themselves that the situation is dire, this US aid package will help a lot but it is far from certain if it will be enough to stop Russia's advance., hopefully if it gets to the frontline on time and it will be enough for now.

wassie · 01-05-2024 03:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084735#Comment_122084735

You lost me at "Fascinating incite…"

RoyalCelt · 01-05-2024 03:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084735#Comment_122084735

Joined April 15th.

01-05-2024 03:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085818#Comment_122085818

This aid package will do nothing, other than prolong the misery a bit longer for those Ukrainian troops. There's no chance of them winning.

And what exactly are you expecting if Putin is ousted? Russia are not going to walk away from this conflict, even if Putin is gone. They view this as a war against NATO/the west, so they're in it until the bitter end. Plus, they've annexed these territories into their federation, so whomever takes over next will be constitutionally bound to protect those territories permanently into the future. And there are many hardliners waiting in the wings, who would love to take over from Putin.

The real question now, is how much of their nation can the Ukrainians salvage in some sort of negotiated settlement. Assuming the Russians are even still open to such negotiations. It's unlikely that Zelensky will be the leader that can bring them to that point. So either he gets ousted in some sort of internal power struggle, or the Russians take him out. Both of which are possibilities. The other possibility, is that the Ukrainian people become weary of the bloodshed and demand an election. Or even some US politicians demand a change in leadership. Without US funding, Ukraine would likely be a failed state right now - so perhaps they feel it's their right to make such demands.

TheValeyard · 01-05-2024 03:51PM

Strikes like that will definitely be felt

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 03:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086328#Comment_122086328

That’s a good example of “misery is being prolonged” for the Russian soldier

What a miserable situation to endup in, get drafted in by a criminal regime to fight an illegal war, line up in front of some officer who despises you and sees you as nothing more than a number to be traded for a few square meters of mud, and then …. nothing

Manic Moran · 01-05-2024 04:36PM

There is an argument that prolonging the misery at least leaves open the possibility of future improvement, as opposed to guaranteeing perpetual loss. As long as Ukrainians are willing to endure the misery, I think it reasonable enough to continue to help them pending that future. Who are we to tell them they are wrong? Besides, their opposition are just as miserable. I know if I’m not enjoying a place I am visiting, I just turn around and go home. Always an option for them…

Gerry T · 01-05-2024 04:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

What this, and the next, and the next aid package will do is bleed Russia further. At some point the people under Putin will decide, before they fall out a window to take Putin out. Then this war, like many other wars Russia has lost will end the same way. Russia with its tail between its legs going back to Russia, claiming some mind boggling victory as most people will not even bother to pass comment on.

The fun will be as the now imposed sanctions continue this year, next year, the year after, the decade after and the decade after that. At what point will Russia decide to pay for reparations in Ukraine, because they will, one day.

Virgil° · 01-05-2024 04:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

This aid package will do nothing, other than prolong the misery a bit longer for those Ukrainian troops. There's no chance of them winning.

From the bottom of my heart I want to thank you 😍! I legitimately mean that. The fact that you (our most recent Russian apologist) is here complaining about this must mean that something good has happened. And that it will most likely effect great change on the battlefield.

A hit dog will holler and all that. I didn't bother reading the rest of that scutter. Not worth the muscle movement of my eyeballs.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086328#Comment_122086328

JFC! That's some area of effect. I can't even imagine what it would feel like to be standing in a shrapnel storm like that.

threeball · 01-05-2024 04:57PM

Possibly more devasting for the troops that survived and now must head to the frontline than for those killed in the strike. Major psychological hurdle to overcome before you even reach the front.

Podge_irl · 01-05-2024 05:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

Plus, they've annexed these territories into their federation, so whomever takes over next will be constitutionally bound to protect those territories permanently into the future.

There is so much wrong with this statement.

Firstly and most importantly, they don't control almost 50% of what they claim to have "annexed". Kherson is a city of almost 300,000 people and Russia claim it as theirs yet do not control it. Given they have taken 40-50k causalities to take cities of 20k people prior to the war, that they have turned to rubble it is absurd to think they are in a position to take Kherson across a river.

Secondly, Russia have oft claimed that attacks on Russian soil would bring nuclear consequences. These territories are attacked every single day. As well as Crimea and sometimes Russian territory itself. They are just full of ****.

Thirdly, Russia is engaged in a war of conquest with no fixed goal. Ukrainians are defending their homeland and their lives. If one of these parties is going to reach the end of their tether sooner it is the **** going to die for no real reason.

Also, lol that you think the Russian constitution means ****.

zerosquared · 01-05-2024 05:29PM

Hmm now I get it

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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