Russia - threadbanned users in OP

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084903#Comment_122084903

What non conventional tactic was used to do a landgrab by Russia … That's the context I used.

By using your logic their current GPS jamming is a prelude to invade a NATO country right ?

I didn't say Russia would reach Odessa ..Its one of their goals yes

If western aids stops do you think Russia can reach Odessa? … That scenario isn't absurd, just look how precarious the situation has become with a few months of US not giving anything. and the EU incapable of filling that gap

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084968#Comment_122084968

Putin launches a nuke on a missile from Kaliningrad and takes out a city in Poland or Baltics and threaten anyone who intervenes with same treatment.

Would it be stupid? Yes, has Putin a history of stupid gambles? Yes

Does he care if millions of Russians die in potential retaliation? I doubt it, would anyone in Russia stop him? Unlikely

He has already shown clearly he doesn’t care if Russia is destroyed, all he wants is his name in history books. And you know what billions across the “global south” and far left/right here would celebrate the “rules based world order” being shattered because they blame that for all their problems.

Even if he doesn’t go down the nuclear route, a 100,000 conscripts can rampage for weeks through Eastern Europe before being eliminated, in that time the markets would panic and implode and people living there would also panic of course. Would Putin care if they die? Nope, will NATO cross the border in retaliation? Nope, precisely because they will fear a nuclear escalation.
In short Putin can cause much damage with little personal repercussions to himself, which would be little consolation to those who be have to endure his crap, and this is why imho alarm bells are ringing.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084995#Comment_122084995

There are literally Russian troops in Moldova today. The "separatist" movement in the Donbas was a Russian invention. They will happily sit there destabilising border countries as much as they possibly can with unconventional tactics.

Could they reach Odessa if Western aid stopped? I'd lean towards no but I'm not certain. What is absurd was Musk's declaration that "the only question is whether they reach Odesa", when there are multiple other questions (Will US support stop? Will European support ramp up to replace it? Will the Baltic states and Poland become more aggressive if Ukraine is in serious trouble? etc etc etc) before you even get into a hypothetical scenario where they might be able. In short, he's a moron.

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085004#Comment_122085004

Can i suggest you put away the Clancy novels for a while. I asked for a realistic scenario.

So you are saying that a 100.000 conscripts can be found… shipped to the border of a NATO country. all logistics being prepared etc etc (same as prior to the invasion in Ukraine) which takes time. followed by an invasion and they can continue this invasion for weeks before being destroyed.?!

My theory is that they will be obliterated prior to even make it to the border once they are on the move. The west had solid intel thar Russia wasn't having training exercises prior to the invasion. They knew exactly when they would attack.

zerosquared

When one stops thinking of Russia as a country and the Modern Putinism brainwashed Russians as Soviets 2.0

And realises that it’s basically a criminal organisation that hijacked the largest country in world and is using well trodden fascist methodology to control a population of 140 million people to do things that are clear against the short/medium/long term interests of those people

A terrorist organisation headed by Putin which already has a track record of attacking multiple neighbours, shooting down planes, killing opposition, using nuclear and chemical poisons

Then it’s not a big leap to seeing them step up unconventional and conventional attacks outisde of Ukraine

Putin’s manifesto and his propaganda network literally daily tell us they want to bring down the current world order and replace it with their oligarchic dystopia

To dismiss them as a threat is the height of stupidity

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085004#Comment_122085004

Ah the nuclear drum being banged again, how many times on this thread is that?

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085168#Comment_122085168

I think you missed the point being made

let’s do everything to ensure Putin is contained and loses in Ukraine so he doesn’t get any more stupid ideas and spreads the misery further

It is also extremely dangerous to underestimate Putin and Russia as we have a clear pattern of stupid gambles just like it’s dangerous to overestimate them (aim of their propaganda)

nigeldaniel

I don't share some folks pessimism for Ukraine right now. Even those in Ukraine itself including the army seem to think the worst. I seem to see it differently. Russia has spent its ground forces badly and are not likely to have much left over by the end of this summer. Put it another way even if Ukrainian forces need to step back from time to time I can still see them having the upper hand long term. Russia and it's PR boyos in the media can do nothing apart from sowing doubt and fear. Two things I have little time for myself. For now I am happy for Putin to be giving false hope his plans are working. He and his unhinged mouthpieces are in for a very unhappy retirement in the long term.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085770#Comment_122085770

As you say, almost all informed commentators disagree with you, and most Ukrainian voices also (including their own military). These people are not pushing Russian propaganda, they are dealing with a brutal reality. Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned and this is unlikely to change, there is zero chance of them driving Russia from the occupied territories in the foreseeable future and they are doing a heroic job putting up such resistance so far. The new military aid will give them a reasonable chance of defending what they have, but nobody honestly believes it will turn the tide. Unless Putin is ousted from within Russia, we will still be here next year, guaranteed.

firemansam4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085770#Comment_122085770

This is pure delusion, and if this kind of thinking was prevalent in Western nations it would probably do more harm than good.

Ukraine are screaming from the rooftops themselves that the situation is dire, this US aid package will help a lot but it is far from certain if it will be enough to stop Russia's advance., hopefully if it gets to the frontline on time and it will be enough for now.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084735#Comment_122084735

You lost me at "Fascinating incite…"

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084735#Comment_122084735

Joined April 15th.

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122085818#Comment_122085818

This aid package will do nothing, other than prolong the misery a bit longer for those Ukrainian troops. There's no chance of them winning.

And what exactly are you expecting if Putin is ousted? Russia are not going to walk away from this conflict, even if Putin is gone. They view this as a war against NATO/the west, so they're in it until the bitter end. Plus, they've annexed these territories into their federation, so whomever takes over next will be constitutionally bound to protect those territories permanently into the future. And there are many hardliners waiting in the wings, who would love to take over from Putin.

The real question now, is how much of their nation can the Ukrainians salvage in some sort of negotiated settlement. Assuming the Russians are even still open to such negotiations. It's unlikely that Zelensky will be the leader that can bring them to that point. So either he gets ousted in some sort of internal power struggle, or the Russians take him out. Both of which are possibilities. The other possibility, is that the Ukrainian people become weary of the bloodshed and demand an election. Or even some US politicians demand a change in leadership. Without US funding, Ukraine would likely be a failed state right now - so perhaps they feel it's their right to make such demands.

TheValeyard

Strikes like that will definitely be felt

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086328#Comment_122086328

That’s a good example of “misery is being prolonged” for the Russian soldier

What a miserable situation to endup in, get drafted in by a criminal regime to fight an illegal war, line up in front of some officer who despises you and sees you as nothing more than a number to be traded for a few square meters of mud, and then …. nothing

Manic Moran

There is an argument that prolonging the misery at least leaves open the possibility of future improvement, as opposed to guaranteeing perpetual loss. As long as Ukrainians are willing to endure the misery, I think it reasonable enough to continue to help them pending that future. Who are we to tell them they are wrong? Besides, their opposition are just as miserable. I know if I’m not enjoying a place I am visiting, I just turn around and go home. Always an option for them…

Gerry T

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

What this, and the next, and the next aid package will do is bleed Russia further. At some point the people under Putin will decide, before they fall out a window to take Putin out. Then this war, like many other wars Russia has lost will end the same way. Russia with its tail between its legs going back to Russia, claiming some mind boggling victory as most people will not even bother to pass comment on.

The fun will be as the now imposed sanctions continue this year, next year, the year after, the decade after and the decade after that. At what point will Russia decide to pay for reparations in Ukraine, because they will, one day.

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

This aid package will do nothing, other than prolong the misery a bit longer for those Ukrainian troops. There's no chance of them winning.

From the bottom of my heart I want to thank you 😍! I legitimately mean that. The fact that you (our most recent Russian apologist) is here complaining about this must mean that something good has happened. And that it will most likely effect great change on the battlefield.

A hit dog will holler and all that. I didn't bother reading the rest of that scutter. Not worth the muscle movement of my eyeballs.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086328#Comment_122086328

JFC! That's some area of effect. I can't even imagine what it would feel like to be standing in a shrapnel storm like that.

threeball

Possibly more devasting for the troops that survived and now must head to the frontline than for those killed in the strike. Major psychological hurdle to overcome before you even reach the front.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086315#Comment_122086315

Plus, they've annexed these territories into their federation, so whomever takes over next will be constitutionally bound to protect those territories permanently into the future.

There is so much wrong with this statement.

Firstly and most importantly, they don't control almost 50% of what they claim to have "annexed". Kherson is a city of almost 300,000 people and Russia claim it as theirs yet do not control it. Given they have taken 40-50k causalities to take cities of 20k people prior to the war, that they have turned to rubble it is absurd to think they are in a position to take Kherson across a river.

Secondly, Russia have oft claimed that attacks on Russian soil would bring nuclear consequences. These territories are attacked every single day. As well as Crimea and sometimes Russian territory itself. They are just full of ****.

Thirdly, Russia is engaged in a war of conquest with no fixed goal. Ukrainians are defending their homeland and their lives. If one of these parties is going to reach the end of their tether sooner it is the **** going to die for no real reason.

Also, lol that you think the Russian constitution means ****.

zerosquared

Hmm now I get it

Field east

Following on from post no 109370 , all the talk about Putin carrying out another round of conscriptions to resource the Ru front lines and the main Ru war strategy of winning the war by using shear numbers to physically overwhelm the Ukr army, I am wondering if all the deaths on the Ru side - reported as between 500 to 100 daily- will have an negative on The number of volunteers ‘willing’to join the Ru army.
Your typical Russian , eligible for conscription, must be aware of all these deaths - strewn across the forests/fields not to mention the injured. In this age of ICT with injured soldiers returning from the front, dead bodies being returned for burial , communication via mobile phones, access thru telegram channels the potential individuals eligible for mobilisation must be very aware of the level of death in the war and the level of injury not to say the number of MIA - and Putin , as reported, shortly plans to ‘recruit’ another 500,000 for the front lines/ meat grinder

My core point is ‘ can he keep up this level of intensity to keep the front lines as active as they are at the moment -gaining the proverbial km a day while losing hundreds to achieve it ie gaining ground?

zv2

Interesting

https://twitter.com/UaCoins/status/1785734894770934145

zerosquared

The last few pages talked about overestimating and underestimating Putin and Russia

This pod today does a retrospective of last two years just on this topic

https://open.spotify.com/episode/52uVNnHDa09Dx2wlauLdAb?si=awdPMwmpQGSlYl1ML5-D0Q

In short both sides are right to certain degrees at certain points in time but the picture is complicated, some excellent points raised in above

Poon Tang

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086570#Comment_122086570

There's going to be increasing pressure put on every subsequent aid package that the US tries to get through. And the ones that do get through, are inevitably going to keep getting smaller over time. And if Trump gets in, I doubt he'll be happy about sinking more and more money into some endless war. He has always been dead set against this with previous US overseas military engagements.

Most of the world are not sanctioning Russia. They have plenty of viable trading partners throughout the world, and crucially have lots of important resources in abundant quantities that nations desperately need. Particularly developing nations, which Russia and China are strategically aligned with in the BRICS and SCO etc. Russia will have plenty of economic potential going forward.

I would fully expect Russia to help rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure, once the conflict has concluded. But only if it ends favourably for them and they are satisfied with the security situation.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

Is that rebuild gonna happen post ethnic cleansing? You seem to be more and more intent on portraying Russia as a reasonable invader.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122087020#Comment_122087020

Considering that the parts of Donetsk and Crimea they stole a decade ago are complete dumps to this day, his post becomes even more hilarious

zv2

!!!!

https://twitter.com/AncientAlien01/status/1785755177372266628

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122086990#Comment_122086990

Moderator, please…save us from this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86P8SnEnF0g

Say my name

Is this normal civilised behaviour @Poon Tang ?

http://twitter.com/sotanews/status/1785664238008090973

Is Russia now a failed state?

Because it looks from the outside to have fallen off a cliff into the abyss.