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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Why?

    FFG are still able to form a govt with a third leg, based on current numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    All very well if FF number stabilise.
    If they don't and they stay on the course they are on, oblivion or insignificance beckons.
    I am sure there are those in the FF who can't see it, but I 'm also sure you will soon see, or rather, hear those who see it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,709 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Well Francie yee need FF as much as FG. The interesting thing is that SF is not benefiting at present from the drop by FF. Its tge Independent's that are picking up the percentages while the smaller parties have stabilised. If FF get really hammered going into a coalition government is not an option. SF might be forced to form a rag tag government with SD's, PBP, Aontu, with maybe the Greens and independents. SF will be delighted with that.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A period in opposition under 14% would be perilous for FF IMO

    I still think the internal ructions when they go public will be the deciding factor in the formation of the next government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Your predictions on anything related to the government for a long long time have come up wrong. You have zero insight into any party apart from Sinn Fein and the rambling about what you think will happen is at this stage hilarious.

    Please continue, it's fun to watch it turn out wrong.

    SF are losing voters by the day, I have said for ages time is Sinn Fein enemy, people are actually reading their policies and it's falling to pieces. Mary Lou firing up they are running enough candidates in the local election might backfire on her, last local elections a few murmurs that SF would move Mary Lou along, would another poor result from SF raise questions internally?

    After all a lot of the so called experts on here said it was a slam dunk for the last 5 years for SF to clean up at elections. If it doesn't happen?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,646 ✭✭✭blackwhite




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Don't think so Clo.
    I predicted Leo would lead the party back to it's GE numbers when he was surfing the 35% wave.
    He threw in the towel with his party stuck on those GE numbers.
    I also predicted a continuing fall for FF if it did not start to assert an identity of it's own. I think that is what we are discussing now, the continuing fall of FF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    Its an incumbent government party

    Surely the bigger news story here is the more than 10% drop in Sinn Féin support , and it now an election year,the supposed main opposition

    Isn't that what is quare bad

    To be fair

    Time to pull the finger out



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Only if you think political party support is a static thing. It isn’t and never was.
    There’s a plethora of threads on the demise of opposition support.
    The real player politically is the stagnancy of the 2 main government parties and how that will feed into future relationships.
    I don’t think FF and FG are that comfortable with one another. If you think Michael undermined a FG Minister for Justice for the lols or by accident you are politically naive IMO. The animosity and jockeying is under wraps…for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,709 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    And do you think SF was in a coalition government with FF and/or a bunch of other parties there would be no jockeying for position. It the nature if the beast that is politics. Francie you make some naive statements.

    SF, FF and FG are all struggling to get the message accross. The winner at present are the independents. Lookin at the figures compared to the last election on a poll of polls basis

    FG 21/22 peaked at 35 in between

    SF 25/27 peaked at 35 in between

    FF 22/17 Di not move outside these percentages

    IND 14/19 bottomed out at 7% in between

    Smaller part are more or less as you were.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/irish-election-poll-tracker-sinn-fein-on-top-but-lead-narrows-1593121.html

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And do you think SF was in a coalition government with FF and/or a bunch of other parties there would be no jockeying for position. It the nature if the beast that is politics. Francie you make some naive statements.

    Of course there will be jockeying for position and the usual politicking.

    Where did I say there wouldn't?
    The politically naive are those who insist all is well within a party struggling to tread water.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    Its very relevant to this thread

    35% SF -Easier to form a government

    25% SF -Difficult to form a government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You are debating with someone who believes that they would have entered talks to form a government had it not been for a party leaders overweening desire to be Taoiseach.
    He clearly demonstrated that he was open to talks when he thought he had many more seats but quickly shut it again because he knew he would not have first dibs on the job he craved.

    All that happened with SF on 24%. So 24% would have been enough. In other words, they don't have to hit 35%.
    Events, dear boy, events will dictate how it goes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    So you're advocating for an SFF government?

    Might happen

    But it won't if the numbers for some version of the current government stack up can it and try as they might it's detractors eager attempts to describe it as unstable don't stack up given it looks like going full term or near full term does it

    Again on topic,we know the Healy Rae's and like minded would vote against Martin for Taoiseach but would they vote for Mary Lou ,unlikely,ditto the majority of the incumbent independents given thats where the wind is blowing ,they're an easier catch for the current government,unless Mary offers them a rotating Teesh ?

    You're certainly right about events

    Only 8 or 9 months left for the Events to improve Sinn Féins performance but they wouldnt want any events of their own



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Keeping being selective pureza.
    I also know stuff that will have impact on events.
    I think one of those impacts will be FF self image and identity doubts.
    We'll see. A fascinating period of Irish politics to be honest. There has already been big changes and there is the possibility of more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,310 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I would not say 35% SF would be easier to form a government. Both would be nigh on impossible. Didnt SF have 35% approx after the last election ? (from memory only, stand to be corrected).

    I think SF would need over 40% of seats to even consider being able to form a government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    Well if you want me to be less selective,maybe start a new thread on a wider subject?

    You know the title of this one

    I do agree at the rate they're going,there won't be room for a sheet of paper between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil in terms of identity,theres bound to be heretofore SF supporters not happy with that either btw and its a bigger change for them than the FF crowd



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,310 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Can you imagine how many people will not vote SF again if they voted, ugh, "for change", only for SF to get into bed with the sleaziest worst most corrupt parties of them all, FF!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well anyone who votes for SF and who doesn't listen to the leader deserves all the rude awakenings they get.
    She has, since taking office, been very clear that she will talk to anyone about forming a government.

    How are FF core voters feeling having been told that FF 'will never' coalesce with FG?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    I've no idea,except they're more and more drawing their pensions

    I'd say if the numbers secured it,Id imagine the members would definitely vote to return a new version of this government,they certainly won't be knocking the doors come election saying how terrible each other are

    But if it got to a post election vote for a return stage by FF,FG and green members ,Sinn Féins goose would have been cooked anyway

    I guess we'll know by this time next year,how many sleeps ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I'd say if the numbers secured it,Id imagine the members would definitely vote to return a new version of this government,they certainly won't be knocking the doors come election saying how terrible each other are

    Seriously, could anyone trust anything they say? That's their real problem next time out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    You could say that of all politicians

    Politics 101 : present manifesto

    Politics 101 : Dump half of it or more in negotiations for government

    Politics 101 : If you're a party so far apart from others and seriously want to get into government,just dump a lot of the policies previously held dear in an attempt to be credible to the other parties prior to election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,595 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If Sinn Fein cannot con FF into government, they won't form a government. The price they will pay will include a rotating Taoiseach, possibly even with FF going first as SF have zero Ministerial experience.

    However, it won't get to that. 55% of the electorate hate Sinn Fein and will never vote for them. Any party that goes in with SF will pay a heavy price. FG will smartly rule out SF to look at getting that vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Sinn Fein cannot con FF into government,

    Hilarious. 'I will never coalesce with FG' - Micheal Martin.
    'Putting a FF minister of finance in government is like asking John Delaney back to run the FAI' - Leo Varadkar.

    Who got conned there?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,206 ✭✭✭pureza


    Ah here now,you're not serious?

    He changed his mind

    Surely you're not reverting back to the old Sinn Féin position on EU referenda ,that people shouldnt be allowed to change their mind?

    Sinn Féin afterall have become serial mind changers 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    As long as we don’t pretend only one party play the field Pureza as some folk around these parts like to do.

    Yeh, I admire politicians and parties who can change bur don’t be telling me MM and Lv were not in the con game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,719 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    If you think all Irish politicians are in the con game ( you mentioned FF and FG - please do not attempt to tell us your SF were / are not in the con game…take its leader for most of the past 40 years - for example does anyone believe him when he says he was not in the IRA, so is or was he conning too )….do you think all politicians overseas are in the con game too?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,359 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I didn’t introduce the concept of a ‘con’.

    There is though a fascinating and probably lively debate to be had on previous leaders of political parties here, I’m thinking Haughey, Ahern, Kenny and Adams too and the level of ‘conning’ they pulled off. But it isn’t for this thread.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,719 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    No, but you asked "Who got conned there?" and you stated in a following post "don’t be telling me MM and Lv were not in the con game."

    MM and LV's governments were not perfect but most of the problems we have are first world problems, and in fairness the country has full employment, record spending is being spent on educatuion and health, it is not borrowing tens of billions extra every year to keep the show on the road etc. We know what other politicians are like in this country too. So answer the question: do you think all politicians overseas are in the con game too, or is it just Irish politicians you think "are in the con game"?



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