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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

  • 28-02-2024 05:21PM
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Another very wet, windy and extremely mild winter has passed and it's time to move on and focus on Spring 2024.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Mod Note:

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2024.


    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved


    Thanks

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    March looks like it will start off on a chilly note with wintry precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday which could deliver the first flakes since Spring 2023 for eastern and some central parts of the country. Lying snow is possible to low levels but this will be very transitional and short lived.

    Untitled Image


    We remain unsettled and cool into the first week of March with plenty of cold rain and daytime temperatures generally in the high single digits.

    After next weekend we go into the unreliable time frame. The GFS 6z is playing around with an easterly of sorts and depending on exact wind direction this could be rather mild if there is a south-east source to the easterly or cool if it's a direct easterly. We may get a bit of a recovery in the temperatures by this point to more average values rather than slightly cooler than average.

    Untitled Image


    We're getting to that time of year where easterlies need to be direct hit and sourced from the north-east to pull in any real cold and this seems unlikely.

    We finish up with winds still in from the east but sourced from a warmer south-eastern parts of Europe so no cold air associated with this easterly.

    Untitled Image

    Overall the coming 2 weeks look fairly wet with large rainfall totals possible in western areas.

    Untitled Image


    Post edited by Gonzo on


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It's still Winter in Sligo for 24 hours more. But then we "leap" into the cold Spring



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I like the look of this, would it be cold enough for east coast snow showers if it were to happen? Unlikely which is why it’s called the F I thread.

    9EF30352-F213-41CC-A7C3-D4D16EA4F0EF.gif

    edit: 240 even better!

    C68629AA-7879-4451-96EB-CBBC9402443D.gif




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    If charts like that come to fruition I swear to Christ the weather is trolling us lol.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,541 ✭✭✭esposito


    It will probably verify because it’s Spring now!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Yes please! I’ll take anything wintry that’s going up to the change of the clock at the end of the month, spring can wait until April as far as I’m concerned.

    D138073F-F276-47C2-A239-F6FE00957E06.png




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    There's no trolling though. Statistically this is the most likely time of year to see that sort of blocked pattern.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,605 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I would take an April Snowstorm if it could rival the one in 1933 and started at night. If nothing else it would be fascinating to see how quickly the snow disappeared during the daylight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I said a few weeks ago that chances of an easterly were quite high, GFS sticking to it's guns now and ECM not far off either showing an easterly. I don't think it will be that severe but very unpleasant wind chill. Just a bit too late in the season to be expecting any decent snow



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,387 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    One last chase!!

    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,550 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The ICON op run following other models with an easterly. Nothing particularly cold by 180hrs but the Siberian tap is dripping and much colder air is not too far away. Not sure my heart is in it for a Spring time snow chase 🥵 The moisture content is high and ground is warmer. 

    icon-0-180.png


    www.weatheire.com



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Nice blocking from Scandinavia to Greenland, not unlike the chart above.

    574E353D-D5F1-4C5F-9B9D-DA275095E1BB.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Came across this on YouTube. Interesting

    Everything in 2 minutes



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    A nasty looking storm on the GFS 00z, almost 100% chance of not verifying. This is nowhere to be seen on the 6z.

    Untitled Image




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,605 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, a storm of that intensity is unlikely, but it looks like we will have an unsettled end to March with a slow moving trough near us



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Looks very possible we will have a cool and a washout Easter on our hands.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,541 ✭✭✭esposito


    Snow possible on hills and mountains I’d say based on todays GFS 12z



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭US3


    Great news, at least when the pattern does change to high pressure the sun will be a bit warmer and evenings a bit longer 😎



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Yr.no forecast is a little "wintry" for next Tuesday 😷

    Screenshot_20240319_195558_Yr.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,446 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Last March was the wettest on record. This March heading near that too.

    Some stations will probably have their wettest March on record. It's non stop. Hard to get 24 hours dry at all.

    No doubt the next 10 days will have rain at some stage each of those days. Looks like a warmer Atlantic means even wetter than we already were.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,072 ✭✭✭Artane2002




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Talk about having a laugh! This chances of this happening is about a million to one!

    19DC2507-D9E0-4DEA-B95C-1C04983804FE.png




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,663 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    LP looks set to be dominant with some high rainfall totals out to +240hrs being indicated on some of the models. Temps cool next week no great improvement showing up just yet with models showing some cold or frosty nights next week and into the weekend. The Jet staying South of us for now.


    ecmwf_uv200_atl_fh120-240.gif


    ecmwf_mslpa_eu_fh120-234.gif xx_model-en-328-0_modez_2024032212_240_949_157.png


    ecmwf_T850a_eu_fh120-240.gif




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,837 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    ECM no sign of spring like weather. Very cold air approaching from the North as we go in to April

    image.gif image.gif

    Very wet towards the SE and East

    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,837 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Still there on tonight’s run

    image.gif image.gif




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Is there any signs in the medium term of the weather drying up?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,411 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Unfortunately no. Any time the models show signs of high pressure anywhere near us, it gets put back into it's box very quickly. Right now the medium term looks poor with a potentially chilly if not cold and wet first half to April possible. A pattern shift to something much warmer and dryer for the summer better happen. This very wet pattern of the past 18 months is really getting old now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    IMG_1481.gif.dddc182c6e79584bb464c04e8cdf9c09.gif

    Says it all........



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,605 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Winter showing up in April, typical!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Thanks Gonzo. Off to Portugal for some warmer rain middle of next week but heading back in the summer and hopefully it'll have dried out there by then! Lots of g&ts in the meantime!! Hopefully by the end of April things will be looking a bit better.



This discussion has been closed.
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