FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Another very wet, windy and extremely mild winter has passed and it's time to move on and focus on Spring 2024.

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Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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March looks like it will start off on a chilly note with wintry precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday which could deliver the first flakes since Spring 2023 for eastern and some central parts of the country. Lying snow is possible to low levels but this will be very transitional and short lived.

We remain unsettled and cool into the first week of March with plenty of cold rain and daytime temperatures generally in the high single digits.

After next weekend we go into the unreliable time frame. The GFS 6z is playing around with an easterly of sorts and depending on exact wind direction this could be rather mild if there is a south-east source to the easterly or cool if it's a direct easterly. We may get a bit of a recovery in the temperatures by this point to more average values rather than slightly cooler than average.

We're getting to that time of year where easterlies need to be direct hit and sourced from the north-east to pull in any real cold and this seems unlikely.

We finish up with winds still in from the east but sourced from a warmer south-eastern parts of Europe so no cold air associated with this easterly.

Overall the coming 2 weeks look fairly wet with large rainfall totals possible in western areas.

pauldry

It's still Winter in Sligo for 24 hours more. But then we "leap" into the cold Spring

Elmer Blooker

I like the look of this, would it be cold enough for east coast snow showers if it were to happen? Unlikely which is why it’s called the F I thread.

edit: 240 even better!

Billcarson

If charts like that come to fruition I swear to Christ the weather is trolling us lol.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834215#Comment_121834215

It will probably verify because it’s Spring now!

Elmer Blooker

Yes please! I’ll take anything wintry that’s going up to the change of the clock at the end of the month, spring can wait until April as far as I’m concerned.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834215#Comment_121834215

There's no trolling though. Statistically this is the most likely time of year to see that sort of blocked pattern.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834306#Comment_121834306

I would take an April Snowstorm if it could rival the one in 1933 and started at night. If nothing else it would be fascinating to see how quickly the snow disappeared during the daylight.

typhoony

I said a few weeks ago that chances of an easterly were quite high, GFS sticking to it's guns now and ECM not far off either showing an easterly. I don't think it will be that severe but very unpleasant wind chill. Just a bit too late in the season to be expecting any decent snow

JanuarySnowstor

One last chase!!

WolfeEire

The ICON op run following other models with an easterly. Nothing particularly cold by 180hrs but the Siberian tap is dripping and much colder air is not too far away. Not sure my heart is in it for a Spring time snow chase 🥵 The moisture content is high and ground is warmer. 

Elmer Blooker

Nice blocking from Scandinavia to Greenland, not unlike the chart above.

pauldry

Came across this on YouTube. Interesting

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6QtLLK7X9Xg&si=qULSlv0X-Sxk-wcN

Everything in 2 minutes

Gonzo

A nasty looking storm on the GFS 00z, almost 100% chance of not verifying. This is nowhere to be seen on the 6z.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121908587#Comment_121908587

Yes, a storm of that intensity is unlikely, but it looks like we will have an unsettled end to March with a slow moving trough near us

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121912680#Comment_121912680

Looks very possible we will have a cool and a washout Easter on our hands.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913689#Comment_121913689

Snow possible on hills and mountains I’d say based on todays GFS 12z

US3

Great news, at least when the pattern does change to high pressure the sun will be a bit warmer and evenings a bit longer 😎

Neddyusa

Yr.no forecast is a little "wintry" for next Tuesday 😷

pauldry

Last March was the wettest on record. This March heading near that too.

Some stations will probably have their wettest March on record. It's non stop. Hard to get 24 hours dry at all.

No doubt the next 10 days will have rain at some stage each of those days. Looks like a warmer Atlantic means even wetter than we already were.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913723#Comment_121913723

The EC is having a laugh tonight

Elmer Blooker

Talk about having a laugh! This chances of this happening is about a million to one!

Meteorite58

LP looks set to be dominant with some high rainfall totals out to +240hrs being indicated on some of the models. Temps cool next week no great improvement showing up just yet with models showing some cold or frosty nights next week and into the weekend. The Jet staying South of us for now.

.Donegal.

ECM no sign of spring like weather. Very cold air approaching from the North as we go in to April

Very wet towards the SE and East

.Donegal.

Still there on tonight’s run

Sammy2012

Is there any signs in the medium term of the weather drying up?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933344#Comment_121933344

Unfortunately no. Any time the models show signs of high pressure anywhere near us, it gets put back into it's box very quickly. Right now the medium term looks poor with a potentially chilly if not cold and wet first half to April possible. A pattern shift to something much warmer and dryer for the summer better happen. This very wet pattern of the past 18 months is really getting old now.

Billcarson

Says it all........

nacho libre

Winter showing up in April, typical!

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933583#Comment_121933583

Thanks Gonzo. Off to Portugal for some warmer rain middle of next week but heading back in the summer and hopefully it'll have dried out there by then! Lots of g&ts in the meantime!! Hopefully by the end of April things will be looking a bit better.