FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Another very wet, windy and extremely mild winter has passed and it's time to move on and focus on Spring 2024.

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Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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March looks like it will start off on a chilly note with wintry precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday which could deliver the first flakes since Spring 2023 for eastern and some central parts of the country. Lying snow is possible to low levels but this will be very transitional and short lived.

We remain unsettled and cool into the first week of March with plenty of cold rain and daytime temperatures generally in the high single digits.

After next weekend we go into the unreliable time frame. The GFS 6z is playing around with an easterly of sorts and depending on exact wind direction this could be rather mild if there is a south-east source to the easterly or cool if it's a direct easterly. We may get a bit of a recovery in the temperatures by this point to more average values rather than slightly cooler than average.

We're getting to that time of year where easterlies need to be direct hit and sourced from the north-east to pull in any real cold and this seems unlikely.

We finish up with winds still in from the east but sourced from a warmer south-eastern parts of Europe so no cold air associated with this easterly.

Overall the coming 2 weeks look fairly wet with large rainfall totals possible in western areas.

pauldry

It's still Winter in Sligo for 24 hours more. But then we "leap" into the cold Spring

Elmer Blooker

I like the look of this, would it be cold enough for east coast snow showers if it were to happen? Unlikely which is why it’s called the F I thread.

edit: 240 even better!

Billcarson

If charts like that come to fruition I swear to Christ the weather is trolling us lol.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834215#Comment_121834215

It will probably verify because it’s Spring now!

Elmer Blooker

Yes please! I’ll take anything wintry that’s going up to the change of the clock at the end of the month, spring can wait until April as far as I’m concerned.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834215#Comment_121834215

There's no trolling though. Statistically this is the most likely time of year to see that sort of blocked pattern.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121834306#Comment_121834306

I would take an April Snowstorm if it could rival the one in 1933 and started at night. If nothing else it would be fascinating to see how quickly the snow disappeared during the daylight.

typhoony

I said a few weeks ago that chances of an easterly were quite high, GFS sticking to it's guns now and ECM not far off either showing an easterly. I don't think it will be that severe but very unpleasant wind chill. Just a bit too late in the season to be expecting any decent snow

JanuarySnowstor

One last chase!!

WolfeEire

The ICON op run following other models with an easterly. Nothing particularly cold by 180hrs but the Siberian tap is dripping and much colder air is not too far away. Not sure my heart is in it for a Spring time snow chase 🥵 The moisture content is high and ground is warmer. 

Elmer Blooker

Nice blocking from Scandinavia to Greenland, not unlike the chart above.

pauldry

Came across this on YouTube. Interesting

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6QtLLK7X9Xg&si=qULSlv0X-Sxk-wcN

Everything in 2 minutes

Gonzo

A nasty looking storm on the GFS 00z, almost 100% chance of not verifying. This is nowhere to be seen on the 6z.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121908587#Comment_121908587

Yes, a storm of that intensity is unlikely, but it looks like we will have an unsettled end to March with a slow moving trough near us

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121912680#Comment_121912680

Looks very possible we will have a cool and a washout Easter on our hands.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913689#Comment_121913689

Snow possible on hills and mountains I’d say based on todays GFS 12z

US3

Great news, at least when the pattern does change to high pressure the sun will be a bit warmer and evenings a bit longer 😎

Neddyusa

Yr.no forecast is a little "wintry" for next Tuesday 😷

pauldry

Last March was the wettest on record. This March heading near that too.

Some stations will probably have their wettest March on record. It's non stop. Hard to get 24 hours dry at all.

No doubt the next 10 days will have rain at some stage each of those days. Looks like a warmer Atlantic means even wetter than we already were.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913723#Comment_121913723

The EC is having a laugh tonight

Elmer Blooker

Talk about having a laugh! This chances of this happening is about a million to one!

Meteorite58

LP looks set to be dominant with some high rainfall totals out to +240hrs being indicated on some of the models. Temps cool next week no great improvement showing up just yet with models showing some cold or frosty nights next week and into the weekend. The Jet staying South of us for now.

.Donegal.

ECM no sign of spring like weather. Very cold air approaching from the North as we go in to April

Very wet towards the SE and East

.Donegal.

Still there on tonight’s run

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121932282#Comment_121932282

1917?!

Sammy2012

Is there any signs in the medium term of the weather drying up?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933344#Comment_121933344

Unfortunately no. Any time the models show signs of high pressure anywhere near us, it gets put back into it's box very quickly. Right now the medium term looks poor with a potentially chilly if not cold and wet first half to April possible. A pattern shift to something much warmer and dryer for the summer better happen. This very wet pattern of the past 18 months is really getting old now.

Billcarson

Says it all........

nacho libre

Winter showing up in April, typical!

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933583#Comment_121933583

Thanks Gonzo. Off to Portugal for some warmer rain middle of next week but heading back in the summer and hopefully it'll have dried out there by then! Lots of g&ts in the meantime!! Hopefully by the end of April things will be looking a bit better.

pauldry

Weather looks fairly atrocious for the next month. Cool and unsettled. Frequent rain and cold rain. Flooding could become a concern in Eastern parts.

The only chance of dry is probably gaps between lows and rain or showers.

Eibhir

Just thinking back, April, May and most of June 1993 was the worst Spring to Summer transition I ever remember. Poor rest of summer too.

I was doing my Leaving in a school outside Carlow town. The Barrow river was out the Wednesday of English Paper 1. We had to go around the Milford bridges in Leighlinbridge and I barely made the exam!

Barrow out in June was rare, August 2008 another Summer month it broke its banks.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121934179#Comment_121934179

I wouldn't rule out at least falling snow sometime in the next two weeks. There seems to be a signal for the weather to turn colder but low pressure never seems to be far away. I've always wanted to experience lying snow in April so it would be typical if it happened this year since I will be in Greece for a good chunk of April. The silver lining to that is that at least I'll get warmth on the other side of the Euro trough were it to verify 😎

Can't complain too much though since I've been absolutely spoiled for snow and wintry weather from September to March, February aside.

KanyeSouthEast

I’d rather experience a dose of the runs than lying snow in April. What we need now is dry mild bright weather and fast.

pauldry

There are tentative signs the weather may settle down in April but very tentative. Don't be at all surprised if Lows coming sliding in to wash away that possibility.

.Donegal.

Chilly

squonk

Here in the coastal west/south west anyway we need a break. A dry, settled and mildish period is needed as places are sopping and bar a few days here and there there hasn’t been a let up really. Even from a general mental health standpoint I think it’s needed people are commenting about rain since last July and when will it let up. So definitely no snow and just get on with spring.

hamburgham

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121935661#Comment_121935661

Pretty sure there was lying snow around around Roundwood in Wicklow on 1st April 1980. Farmer had lamb in kitchen because of it. I was holding it and got yellow shxt on my confirmation suit.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121932295#Comment_121932295

you might be right!

what an exceptional winter it has been for northern Scandinavia with no end in sight, the ice on the many rivers and lakes there has to be the thickest it’s been for many years. There will be serious flooding there when the thaw eventually comes.

Hooter23

Plenty of cold air going south as far as spain for the next while...this will mix up the warm air down there and get it moving..expect this to send waves of very warm air up north to some places probably from around mid April into May...could get very warm early...for the time of year

Coolcormack1979

Any prospects of a bit of dry weather on the outlook.pissed off dairy farmer here for my sins😁

.Donegal.

Tonight’s GFS pushes the frontal snow back 1 day to Thursday

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936655#Comment_121936655

Unfortunately no, it's about to get worse even wetter than the past few weeks is very possible for next week. Turns very wet from Monday with no shortage of rainfall all through next week and into next weekend and possibly beyond.

For Dublin that is a very wet GFS ensemble graph particularly from 2nd April to 10th April with a possible drying trend into the far depths of FI around the 14th of April. Expect places further west than this to trend even wetter. Many parts of the country could easily achieve 100mm of rainfall or more over the next 2 weeks.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121952740#Comment_121952740

This will spell a disaster for farming particularly tillage farmers trying to get crops into saturated ground. This will equate to food costs rising down the line. T

Hooter23

When the waves of warm air starts arriving in the second week of april we could get alot of wind or even a storm..if we are in between the cold air to the north west and warm air coming up from the south..then after that it might become abit more like spring or even summer

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121958619#Comment_121958619

I'll take it at this stage if it stops the rain. Just having a look at the GFS 06z that just finished its run. It's showing the conveyor belt still going up to the weekend of the 12th, with a deep low sitting over Iceland pulling low pressure up towards us and the high pressure staying well south. It shows pressure building in the Atlantic after that and ends with high pressure sitting right over us on the Tuesday but it seems on each run that higher pressure just keeps getting pushed out. The signals are consistently there though for things to begin settling down.

Hooter23

The warm air is still arriving near mid april…warm from wednesday thursday and maybe friday….after that for next weekend we could get even warmer summer weather or straight back to winter..with cold coming down from the north and warm summer weather coming up from the south…it could go either way…more chance of better weather anyway after next weekend

Eibhir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121987259#Comment_121987259

https://youtu.be/v9drj2Z7Pxo?si=9UIkQnLTXA8DYuZ_

Reminds me of this 'it could go either way lads' 😅

Hooter23

Warm rain wednesday thursday according to met eireann…but im sure there will be sun too and it will feel very warm with it

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121988335#Comment_121988335

Has it gotten so bad that the prospect of slightly warmer rain is now FI, even at 3 days out?! 😲