Tesla Talk

With latest FSD 12 involving a total rewrite of code incorporating/using AI to a very significant extent, so in my view it is to be expected that this gets more prominence in how it is referred to as time progresses. In a similar way robotics "Optimus" is a new product in development so it too is understandable that more references will (and should) appear as the product development advances ... noticeable also that these are the areas that Investors/Analysts raise direct questions about... and as you have pointed out why the PE follows more tech than automotive.

Of course the market also expects/and loves some absolute 2024 targets and it was noticeable that this area was fuzzy...maybe a good thing as chasing firm targets in terms of no of cars, in a volatile trading environment, puts pressure to use price (reductions) to achieve this target which comes at a cost to margin.

Just my thoughts as much to inject some balance.....

FSD 12, reviewed by one of the biggest fan accounts there is:

”it’s not really ready for the public.” 

all the guff from musk that 12 would not be “beta” is just that - guff. Tesla have developed the best level 2 camera based driver assistant on the market. Absolutely no doubt about that - but its years (or never?) from accepting insurance liability and be level 3.

and let’s be very clear - insurance liability is now the benchmark for level 3, hence all those driverless car trials are starting to get shelved, and even Apple said this week that its car project is still technically a live project, but might come in 2028, but “without level 3 driving”.

https://fortune.com/2024/01/23/elon-musk-tesla-fsdbeta-v12-chatgpt-moment-ai/

Humanoid robots are nonsense. They cant even make a car with functional wipers let alone function Self Driving (which is what I assume FSD stands for, since it is so bad it couldnt be FULL self driving).

Cut the crap, focus on numbers, cars, margin, revenue, EPS, cost. These measures are worse than 3 years ago despite being the best selling car in the world now. Thats inexcusable

And they pissed off a lot of cybertruck holders in UK/Irl/Aus/NZ by cancelling the X and S in RHD. Likely there was a lot of crossover. I know when I canceled my X plaid reservation I also canceled my cybertruck one.

They have the best selling car in the world. Time to make hay when the sun shines. Stop price cuts, the car is already selling, focus on volume, customer service and retention. They had the last 2 during the S and X times, before the 3 was announced. How many new owners even remember "model 3 priority" signs on superchargers.

Now people like myself who were planning on buying an X plaid and then a cybertruck in 2-3 years and trading in the X, are instead hammered with depreciation, bad customer service, and are looking at spending that money (on the highest margin cars) on german brands instead. How many 3 or Y do you need to sell to cover the dollar amount in margin on a single S or X.

That goldman sachs analyst is a familiar name to me ;). I have worked 15 years in finance and commercial credit, I am by no means an expert but I know enough that these analysts don't have a clue beyond explaining to me what has already happened.

I know there is currently a lot of projected growth in the stock price and company valuation, what I'm saying is I don't expect them to realise this potential in the short to medium term. I wasnt aware that the EPS was so bad in 2021-20, I'll take the correction on that one.

Where do you see growth in Tesla performance to match current share pricing? With the amount of projected growth built into the price, if there isnt sustained growth it will never maintain the current value in the long term. The potential growth is in selling more cars and expanding on margin. There's also a lot of potential in microtransactions, nickel and diming on premium connectivity, maybe FSD monthly sub when it gets competent, etc. Do you think more car sales at the same percentage point of margin and revenue, or investment of billions into dogecoin or development of robots for housework, are better growth potential?

They should spin off Tesla Robotics as a separate company and use that for the silly stuff and keep TSLA for cars. They can grow and sell more and more cars. If they don't hammer existing owners on depreciation they will get into the 2-3 year replacement cycle. It's much easier and cheaper to retain customers than to attract new business. Keep the S, X and CT as Halo products and get people upgrading from a 3 to an S or a Y to an X in time as their career progresses. This is where the money is. As a shareholder myself I expect the board to get value for the company interests, not wasting money and time driving X into the ground, visiting israel etc. I don't know what the annual sales figures are but if it's 1 million lets say in 2023, it should be 1.2 million in 2024, 1.44 million in 2025 etc, while keeping the same rate of margin.

Much of a muchness, a charge point is a charge point and it will charge your car. But if you buy any old non-smart charge point, you will not qualify for the grant. Which is now €300 (was €600 before the start of last month)

The most commonly installed smart charge point in Ireland is the zappi, which a very nice piece of kit, but not the cheapest. It works very well with the rest of the ecosystem from myenergi and their support is outstanding

Hi again,

Could be a long shot but no harm in asking.

I'm not living in Dublin but buying a 2021 Tesla model 3 (with low mileage) from private seller in Clontarf. It'll still have a warranty but I'm thinking no harm in getting it checked (suspension, brakes, screen etc.)

Anyone here living relatively nearby & willing to check for me, PM me please. Of course, I'll Revolut you for your time and help.

Cheers.

I had to google all the terms. So with this option I'm using the Tesla 3 pin charger cable, an adaptor & plug instead of a standard EV charger. Are there any other costs to it besides electrician & what I've listed below? I presume it'll charge as quickly as a standard EV home charger, are there any downsides to having it?

UMC is the Tesla charger with the 3 pin plug

32A outside CEE plug- something like this https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0B59GTGX7?tag=bre08-21&linkCode=ogi&th=1&smid=A3JWKAKR8XB7XF €15

32a blue adapter for the UMC which is €48 Blue Adapter - 16A/32A (tesla.com) €48

Thanks in advance!

No €300 subsidy on that install though. And several smart charge points (like a zappi) have built in load balancing, something that would set you back possibly €200-300 to have installed separately by an electrician

Another great benefit of the likes of a smart load balancing system like myenergi is that it allows you to maximally use a cheap night slot if you have a smart plan on a smart meter. This is working a treat for me, I import 43-44kWh every single night at 5c per kWh (and never use electricity outside of this time slot)

Pinergy, the Cooline community offer. 5c electricity between 2AM and 5AM. Still valid, you get a €100 bonus too. By far the cheapest rate Ireland has seen in years. Their feed in tariff is the highest in the country too at 25c

https://pinergy.ie/home-electricity/cooline/