Tesla Talk

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121667019#Comment_121667019

Yes and No, time will tell

sk8board

Very mixed bag of results.

Narrow misses across the board for EPS, margins and revenue.

margins now 17% (but helped by temporary drops in materials costs, and also recognising a bunch of FSD revenue (??!!). Would be 14% otherwise.

and maybe most odd of all, they failed to give growth guidance on 2024 - they’ve traded as a growth tech company their whole existence, but are only saying 2024 will be much lower growth than (already lowered) 2023.

fun drinking game: search for ‘Ai and robotics” in the call transcript 😂, versus almost zero 12 months ago; but apparently a core focus now - he’s some chancer lads, honestly.

shares down at $196 after hours, but actually holding up well considering. If they don’t give 2024 guidance shortly then that price will drop, considering they’re still trading at a huge P/E.

unkel

@sk8board

"and also recognising a bunch of FSD revenue (??!!)"

" search for ‘Ai and robotics” in the call transcript 😂, versus almost zero 12 months ago; but apparently a core focus now - he’s some chancer lads, honestly."

It looks like you are completely unware of (the significance of) the release of FSD beta 12 in the last few days?

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121667834#Comment_121667834

With latest FSD 12 involving a total rewrite of code incorporating/using AI to a very significant extent, so in my view it is to be expected that this gets more prominence in how it is referred to as time progresses. In a similar way robotics "Optimus" is a new product in development so it too is understandable that more references will (and should) appear as the product development advances ... noticeable also that these are the areas that Investors/Analysts raise direct questions about... and as you have pointed out why the PE follows more tech than automotive.

Of course the market also expects/and loves some absolute 2024 targets and it was noticeable that this area was fuzzy...maybe a good thing as chasing firm targets in terms of no of cars, in a volatile trading environment, puts pressure to use price (reductions) to achieve this target which comes at a cost to margin.

Just my thoughts as much to inject some balance.....

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668008#Comment_121668008

my point is that he pivots the company to be whatever is topical every single year on the call.

my point on recognising the FSD revenue was an accountancy one. Tesla’s idea of GAAP accounting is an actual joke. So much to peel back to see the actual performance of the business. The margin on the cars is 14%, not 17%.

as for FSD 12, it’s just Tesla’s latest attempt at a level 3 driver assistant system - Early reports are far from glowing - as in, it’s still DA and not even remotely close to achieving level 3+.

https://electrek.co/2024/01/22/tesla-releases-fsd-v12-last-hope-self-driving/

do you really believe that Tesla can deliver a version of their DA software that’s capable of accepting insurance liability?

and more importantly that it can deliver meaningful revenue to the business and return on 12 years of investment?

meanwhile the share price sits 30% below the Jan 2021 price, 3 years ago, which itself was considerably below the 2022 ATH. Investors are starting to not swallow it as much as before.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668378#Comment_121668378

FSD 12, reviewed by one of the biggest fan accounts there is:

”it’s not really ready for the public.” 

all the guff from musk that 12 would not be “beta” is just that - guff. Tesla have developed the best level 2 camera based driver assistant on the market. Absolutely no doubt about that - but its years (or never?) from accepting insurance liability and be level 3.

and let’s be very clear - insurance liability is now the benchmark for level 3, hence all those driverless car trials are starting to get shelved, and even Apple said this week that its car project is still technically a live project, but might come in 2028, but “without level 3 driving”.

https://fortune.com/2024/01/23/elon-musk-tesla-fsdbeta-v12-chatgpt-moment-ai/

sk8board

As for Optimus, when it comes to revenue, how many people will pay $20k+ for a humanoid robot to do housework? It’s beyond nonsensical.

and while we’re on the subject of other Tesla projects - it’s also now coming to light that VERY few of the millions of reservations for the cybertruck are accepting their build slots, and people who ordered at the end of November are already taking delivery. Demand has literally evaporated for it.

tesla is 21 years old this year - and 95% of its revenue is still coming from selling motor vehicles, bar a little bit from software and solar/home energy products.

these are views as an investor btw, i love the cars.

ELM327

Humanoid robots are nonsense. They cant even make a car with functional wipers let alone function Self Driving (which is what I assume FSD stands for, since it is so bad it couldnt be FULL self driving).

Cut the crap, focus on numbers, cars, margin, revenue, EPS, cost. These measures are worse than 3 years ago despite being the best selling car in the world now. Thats inexcusable

sk8board

I love that they tried something so different with the cybertruck, but it’s already looking like a long term dud from a revenue perspective.

It’ll be US only, and tellingly was barely mentioned last night on the call. With all the original deposit holders now contacted (i.e. they’ve all vanished), you’re left with new demand only, for a car with obvious issues and super low production volume (for now at least).

so many of these side projects are just distractions, or smoke even.

a new model 2 is probably the only thing people want to see - in other words, a new car from a car manufacturer.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121670176#Comment_121670176

And they pissed off a lot of cybertruck holders in UK/Irl/Aus/NZ by cancelling the X and S in RHD. Likely there was a lot of crossover. I know when I canceled my X plaid reservation I also canceled my cybertruck one.

They have the best selling car in the world. Time to make hay when the sun shines. Stop price cuts, the car is already selling, focus on volume, customer service and retention. They had the last 2 during the S and X times, before the 3 was announced. How many new owners even remember "model 3 priority" signs on superchargers.

Now people like myself who were planning on buying an X plaid and then a cybertruck in 2-3 years and trading in the X, are instead hammered with depreciation, bad customer service, and are looking at spending that money (on the highest margin cars) on german brands instead. How many 3 or Y do you need to sell to cover the dollar amount in margin on a single S or X.

JOL1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121669387#Comment_121669387

Everyone has a view ...but not all views are the same. Breakthrough technologies always have a period of investment/cost associated with development until progress is made and then scaled. Accepted that the Tesla share price is very volatile and it depends on what period you chose to review. Your comments focus just on car, which is somewhat a narrow perspective as the market takes another view, evidenced by the PE multiples which are placing a value in it's tech side and product innovation, which suggests (at least inInvestors views) embedded future value.

Goldman Sachs Analyst wrote in Nov '23

"We believe that Tesla’s software related revenue could be tens of billions of dollars per year by 2030 (mostly from FSD)," Delaney wrote. "These scenarios suggest that in an upside case FSD could account for tens of billions of revenue per year (and more if we consider licensing of Dojo or selling FSD to other OEMs)."

Yes, I know that this is just one persons opinion but it indicates that the subject of embedded value is more complex than "cars revenue, EPS and Cost"

"cars, margin, revenue, EPS, cost. These measures are worse than 3 years ago despite being the best selling car in the world now. Thats inexcusable"

This is simply not true. Over the 3 year period the key measures you mention "Revenues, Car numbers, EPS and Costs" are all showing very favourable growth (exception EPS over last year but over the 3 year period you mention that too is favourable).

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121670261#Comment_121670261

That goldman sachs analyst is a familiar name to me ;). I have worked 15 years in finance and commercial credit, I am by no means an expert but I know enough that these analysts don't have a clue beyond explaining to me what has already happened.

I know there is currently a lot of projected growth in the stock price and company valuation, what I'm saying is I don't expect them to realise this potential in the short to medium term. I wasnt aware that the EPS was so bad in 2021-20, I'll take the correction on that one.

Where do you see growth in Tesla performance to match current share pricing? With the amount of projected growth built into the price, if there isnt sustained growth it will never maintain the current value in the long term. The potential growth is in selling more cars and expanding on margin. There's also a lot of potential in microtransactions, nickel and diming on premium connectivity, maybe FSD monthly sub when it gets competent, etc. Do you think more car sales at the same percentage point of margin and revenue, or investment of billions into dogecoin or development of robots for housework, are better growth potential?

They should spin off Tesla Robotics as a separate company and use that for the silly stuff and keep TSLA for cars. They can grow and sell more and more cars. If they don't hammer existing owners on depreciation they will get into the 2-3 year replacement cycle. It's much easier and cheaper to retain customers than to attract new business. Keep the S, X and CT as Halo products and get people upgrading from a 3 to an S or a Y to an X in time as their career progresses. This is where the money is. As a shareholder myself I expect the board to get value for the company interests, not wasting money and time driving X into the ground, visiting israel etc. I don't know what the annual sales figures are but if it's 1 million lets say in 2023, it should be 1.2 million in 2024, 1.44 million in 2025 etc, while keeping the same rate of margin.

sk8board

-9% in pre-market, expect a pump today and drop tomorrow. Standard issue.

lads, the CT will never be sold in Europe (or china). It’s US only and super limited volume.

it’s not road legal for Europe (and never can be). Forget about it.

its amazing how on the call 6months ago this was a whole new revenue stream for 2024, with “2million” reservation holders - and now buried in last nights notes they suggest 12,000 deliveries in 2024. a quick Google can show you early drivers (the tippy top of the fanboy pyramid) saying they’re being laughed at not admired - but are locked in for 12 months and can’t sell.

cybertruck is DOA as a mass market 3rd vehicle.

again - purely looking at new revenue streams.

edit: on an aside, Tesla appear to have ‘earned’ a one-off $6bn from the IRS, which is included in the GAAP EPS but shouldn’t be (ever).

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121670176#Comment_121670176

See, the point is Tesla are not a car manufacturer

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121671446#Comment_121671446

“The Greatest Trick The Devil Ever Pulled Was Convincing The World He Doesn't Exist”

slave1

See Tesla now selling on Carzone, I’ve never noticed that before, is that a new thing?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121810883#Comment_121810883

At least a month or so. But relatively new alright in general terms.

slave1

Just throwing this out there, does anyone have a surplus 16amp blue UMC connector ?

dinneenp

I know there's a thread dedicated to this but there's no clear answer there so hopefully someone here can give me a concise answer-

I'm buying a 2021 Telsa model 3 standard range plus. I'll be driving 200km max per week, live in a house so no issues installing a charge point. I've read about the Telsa wall connector, mobile connector (many saying this is all you need for home). I can buy an unused wall connector for €400 from a friend.

What charger/connector would people recommend please?

Thanks in advance!

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823801#Comment_121823801

Much of a muchness, a charge point is a charge point and it will charge your car. But if you buy any old non-smart charge point, you will not qualify for the grant. Which is now €300 (was €600 before the start of last month)

The most commonly installed smart charge point in Ireland is the zappi, which a very nice piece of kit, but not the cheapest. It works very well with the rest of the ecosystem from myenergi and their support is outstanding

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823801#Comment_121823801

Cheapest option probably install a 32A outside CEE plug and use the UMC. This is what I do (because my house came with 3*32A blue plugs when I bought it!)

dinneenp

Hi again,

Could be a long shot but no harm in asking.

I'm not living in Dublin but buying a 2021 Tesla model 3 (with low mileage) from private seller in Clontarf. It'll still have a warranty but I'm thinking no harm in getting it checked (suspension, brakes, screen etc.)

Anyone here living relatively nearby & willing to check for me, PM me please. Of course, I'll Revolut you for your time and help.

Cheers.

slave1

I now have access to a 32A blue plug in work so was thinking I could use my Model S 32a blue connector but didn't realise it's for a previous generation UMC 😔. I really need to sell it and my OBD harness as well...

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823801#Comment_121823801

They are plugs. Buy the cheapest set up you can. Unless you have solar PV and want to use the excess to charge the car. Then you need a zappi or Wallbox or OHME.

Tesla charger doesn’t qualify for grant either.

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823868#Comment_121823868

Just to add to this, you need a 32a blue adapter for the UMC which is €48

Blue Adapter - 16A/32A (tesla.com)

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823868#Comment_121823868

Is your house 3phase, because Tesla do a 3 phase (not universal) MC but it's pricey for a 7.4kW to 11kW gain so I don't think it worth it, €700

ELM327

No, unfortunately not 3 phase. I considered getting 3 phase but if I do that I'll have to spend more money updating my solar PV inverter so I don't think I will. At least not for now. Next non car electrical spend will be a heat pump.

dinneenp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121823868#Comment_121823868

I had to google all the terms. So with this option I'm using the Tesla 3 pin charger cable, an adaptor & plug instead of a standard EV charger. Are there any other costs to it besides electrician & what I've listed below? I presume it'll charge as quickly as a standard EV home charger, are there any downsides to having it?

UMC is the Tesla charger with the 3 pin plug

32A outside CEE plug- something like this https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0B59GTGX7?tag=bre08-21&linkCode=ogi&th=1&smid=A3JWKAKR8XB7XF €15

32a blue adapter for the UMC which is €48 Blue Adapter - 16A/32A (tesla.com) €48

Thanks in advance!

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121855807#Comment_121855807

Pretty much, except that outside plug is red and therefore 3 phase. If you're looking for a normal plug, you need the blue one.

Other than that the only cost is to get an electrician to install it for you. Make sure they add a 40A RCBO in your "fuse box"/Consumer unit, and any isolators etc that are required if you have an electric shower etc.

More straightforward than a home charger and cheaper too.

unkel

No €300 subsidy on that install though. And several smart charge points (like a zappi) have built in load balancing, something that would set you back possibly €200-300 to have installed separately by an electrician

Another great benefit of the likes of a smart load balancing system like myenergi is that it allows you to maximally use a cheap night slot if you have a smart plan on a smart meter. This is working a treat for me, I import 43-44kWh every single night at 5c per kWh (and never use electricity outside of this time slot)