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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I agree you cannot beat the market place. If the market price for a house is €500k it will sell for €500k irrespective of whether it cost 300k or 600k to build it.

    No builder, public or private, or quantity surveyor can build a new house in Dublin for €300k, 350k or even 400k, can they? Can it be done? Genuine question.

    I believe it is nonsense that a new house cannot be built in Dublin for €400k.

    I suspect it's possible to build a house in Dublin for €350k.

    Maybe it's possible to build a house in Dublin for €300k, maybe it's not. I don't know. A big factor would be how you account for the land cost. If it is valued at today's prices, then I suspect tricky to get all in build cost for less 300k. If it is was bought 10 years ago, and costed as such then obviously it is a lot less tricky.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    If you think the market is going to be even more buoyant / prices higher in a few years, then it would make more sense to build now and sell it in a year or 2 when it is finished. Maybe even rent it for a year or 2 before they sell it? So if it was profitable now to build a house for 300k why are they not doing it? Why do you not do it? You could make a fortune?

    I think the answer is the quantity surveyors are right. When you add up labour , materials, taxes etc you cannot build a house in Dublin for 400k, never mind 300k. Otherwise people would be doing it.

    People ( Dunnes, Pennys etc) can sell jeans for €12 or €15. That is €9.75 before vat if they retail for €12. Think of all the work someone has to do to make a euro there.

    If people could build houses in Dublin for 300k they would, such is the demand. They could make 50k sooooo easy by selling for 350k soooo easy. But it is not being done. Why? Dunnes and Pennys are not hoarding jeans hoping they will be more expensive in a few years time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,939 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    In the process of obtaining planning permission for a 3 bed with a converted attic in North Dublin, don't have exact dimensions on hand at the moment. Don't require a tenure process as a builder building in the locality has agreed to take the project on once planning permission has been granted. Fee proposal accepted is around €325k mark. No doubt there'll be contingencies and some unexpected costs but it will be no more than €350k all in. For full disclosure we didn't need to purchase the site which I know we are very fortunate and not everyone is as lucky.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You argument is essentially analagous to a hypothetical that you might be having about taxi drivers had they not been deregulated. Taxi drivers might be charging 30 quid for quick journeys and complaining that they can't make money because they have to rent their plates off non-drivers for 200 quid a day. And passengers would complain about the prices of the fares. And then there might be a shortage of licences because many owners buy them simply to sit on them because the licences increase in value by 20% per year.

    And you might say "but it costs 200 a day to rent the plates because they cost 2m each to buy one. Why don't you get a taxi licence and do it then if it is so profitable".



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If a small builder can build a one off 3 bed detached in Dublin for 325k then no doubt a developer building at scale can build an estate of 3 bed semi ds for significantly less than 325k per unit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You do not rent a taxi plate to built a house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    No, but you used to have to (if you didn't own one) before regulation.

    Not sure why you came to the conclusion that people might have thought you had to rent a taxi plate to build a house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Building houses is nothing to do with taxi plates regulation? Or what is your point?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I do not think you are including things in that like site cost ( land is not "free" ) , site development costs, access roads, footpaths, development fees, landscaping, architects and engineers fees, etc. If it is a builders finish is kitchen etc included?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,939 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    That is exactly why I mentioned that we didn't have to purchase the site (thankfully). We're building in a pre established estate with all services already in place.

    Development costs seem to be getting out of control theses days ie Land, roads, service installations etc. For a one off build it seems that costs can be drastically lower even when removing economies of scale as a tool for reducing costs.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Is the 325k is builders finish?

    And whilst the infrastructure around your site is complete does your build include things like fencing off site and a spot to park the car?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,337 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    It's a thing called an analogy. Used to try to explain something. Taxi licences had no intrinsic value. But people were paying 6-figure sums for them. When the market was deregulated, that just vanished. You could not argue that a taxi licence has to be worth 100k today just because someone paid that for one once and therefore that is what it has to cost. Developers buy land and outbid each other for it. That is what sets the price - not some intrinsic rarity in the land.



    This is back to the point. The reason that land can be so expensive is not because of anything other than the developer who owns it looks at the site, says "X acres. Someone could put 100 houses on that and sell them for 500k each. That's 50m. It would cost them 25m to build those houses all in. I'm not going to sell it for less than 20m. That will give 5m to the builder". If you want to prove whether or not profit can be made from building, just look at the price that people are willing to pay for the land. That piece of land which is already overvalued (relative to what it can produce as agricultural) at 10k is rezoned for housing and suddenly it is worth 1m.


    The example of the hypothetical taxi licence was an analogy. You have something which is attached to an artificially controlled supply. Because the supply is kept low, even though there is a demand, one can make money by purchasing it and just sitting on it. Which further decreases supply. If you want to drive a taxi, you need to rent the plate (in the hypothetical example). If you want to build a house, you need to get the land. In both cases, the necessary asset could be being sat on from being commodified as pure investments or speculations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭newmember2


    If it was possible to build houses for €300k, 350k or even 400k in Dublin, someone would be doing that, and selling them.

    lols



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,939 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    No it's an all in price based on standard fittings, we may upgrade some of these which will increase the price for a bespoke kitchen/bathroom etc but not really a big deal for me so won't be much more than that price.

    Yes, a privately walled back garden is being built to separate the site and the space to park cars is already in place and an agreement has been reached with land owners (her parents) so not an issue.

    I know that we are in a very fortunate position and I am extremely grateful for it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Wait a year or two until after the next election, it might happen soon enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,473 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Can you explain why its common sense that sub and super structure would be more expensive?

    Are there magic bricks and concrete in different regions that I'm not aware of? Is 804 different in Leitrim? How about timber?

    Oh wait, timber is used in furniture and flooring...hmm. Seems like your argument doesn't stack up?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Regarding the cost of sub and superstructures, the fact that they are more likely to have variations - labour, site conditions, access etc - is the common sense bit.

    even if you think the extent of the variations are horseshit - as I do - it's common sense to accept that somebody could make a plausible argument to explain why there are higher prices for such things in Dublin compared to Leitrim.

    Equally it's common sense to accept that nobody can make a plausible argument as to explain why there are higher prices for wardrobes in Leitrim than Dublin.

    If I am wrong by all means make a plausible argument, and I will stand corrected.

    But the lack of IKEA and B&Q in Leitrim is not a plausible argument. Not even close.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Wrong. If that was the reason, some of the most destitute and impoverished places on earth would have sky high house prices.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    No he is not correct and he knows it. The question is, do you? Are are you feigning ignorance?

    House prices have now surpassed their 2008 peak and this deliberate inflation was the result of that 200 billion euro, borrowed since 2008.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Of course it is. How can you tackle a problem without being honest about the cause. As for being water under the bridge, we will see how true that is when the government`s ability to rig the market with borrowed money becomes a doubtful proposition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Eh?

    There is low demand in impoverished places. Prices find the level that people are willing to pay.

    Shacks in Somalia dont cost a million euro for that reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Indeed. But there are a lot of people in Somalia, most of whom who like a nice house. So a lot of people desiring houses is not in itself a reason for house prices to rise. Only economic fundamentals or, as in our case, market manipulation, can do that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Peoples demand and their affordability dictates house prices.

    Somalia doesnt have affordability, so prices are low.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,320 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...this is a highly simplistic view of housing, particularly in modern advanced economies, including ours, over the last few decades, since we have moved to more liberalisation of our economies, in particular in relation to property, whereby it is relatively free to move money in and out of our economy, this has lead to a significant rise in speculation in our property markets, causing credit fueled bubbles, this introduction of the significant rise in the amount of credit based money in the economy, has in fact caused a rapid rise in the overall valuation of our property. this is whats truly occurring in most advanced economies, particularly in relation to property, i.e. its not just the serious lack of supply, but the interaction of entities such as the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), causing this rapid rise in valuation in property, in most countries, this has caused on average a 3-4 times the rise in valuations.....

    ....under developed nations such as somalia simply wouldnt have as well developed fire sectors, most simply cannot take on the same levels of debt we do, hence why property values remain much lower, i.e. theres simply far less credit based money available there, credit is ultimately why we re in a never ending property crisis....



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,949 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It is instructive to note what is happening to the cost of rental in the office sector now that there is a surplus of supply, regardless of the easy access to credit these companies still maintain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,265 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I would stand by the statement that he's partially correct. Building more is part of the answer but only part. If it is the case that lack of housing is one of the main limiting factors in the current already high rate of inward migration - and I believe it is - then there's no point in only building more. You also have to look at controlling inward migration as otherwise the extra building will only stimulate further immigration, thereby defeating the purpose of building more.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The simplistic view still holds.

    External factors can attempt to pump the value of a property, but its still only worth what people can afford and are willing to pay.

    Thats the fundamental.

    You cant punp prices beyond the threshold people are willing and able to pay.



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