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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Very interesting map showing prices that. I see it says in Havana, Cuba, a house is only €40,500.

    That got me thinking. Could we not outsource some people here to the sun, get them working remotely and it would help with our housing crises? Our President Michael D Higgins could even buy half a dozen houses there with his years salary and pensions ( almost 400k?) and rent from his property in Galway (it was reported in Nov. 2022 that "Mr. Higgins owns a few properties in Ireland including until recently two homes in Galway worth over an estimated €1 million combined" ), and still have plenty left over? We have a lot in common with Cuba, why are they so cheap. President Higgins has visited there. He praised Cuba’s literacy rates, health service and economic growth, adding Castro was “a giant among global leaders whose view was not only one of freedom for his people but for all of the oppressed and excluded peoples on the planet’’.

    Or else get a few ships (our navy probably has some under-utilised ones as they are thought to only have one at sea at any one time) and import some materials and Cubans to build some houses in the Blaskets or someplace for refugees who come here, freeing up housing for Irish people?

    If we want to solve this housing crises we have to think outside the box. I am surprised MLMD or MDH has not suggested it already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    Sometimes, if you post enough times and wish hard enough. What you are posting will come true :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,123 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    and the reason why sub and super structure is significantly cheaper in Leitrim?

    You accidentally missed that point in your reply it seems.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You would be more likely to expect regional variations in sub and superstructure - that's just common sense.

    You would not expect significant regional variations in finishings, fittings and services - that's also just common sense.

    Yet the SCSI are expecting us to believe that there are highly significant regional variations in finishings, fitting and services.

    That's totally and utterly ridiculous. Yet it has been swallowed hook, line and sinker.

    In the absence of a plausible explanation for these variations it looks very much like the SCSI are massaging the figures to advance their own interests.

    I cannot think of a plausible explanation, and it appears neither can you.

    Is there anybody else here who knows of a plausible explanation of why wardrobes etc in Leitrim are twice the price of wardrobes in Dublin?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You ask "Is there anybody else here who knows of a plausible explanation of why wardrobes etc in Leitrim are twice the price of wardrobes in Dublin?"

    I say if the experts cannot even get the figures right on that one, what hope is there for our "experts" getting our real GDP figures right? Leprechaun economics, as one paper abroad described it. Are there not some brass name plate companies in Dublin employing a handful of staff but who do maybe 100 million worth of business / profit? Ireland's base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) tools give some foreign corporates effective tax rates of 0% to 2.5% on global profits re-routed to Ireland via their tax treaty network.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    They are different experts, but at least with our GDP figures there is widespread understanding and acceptance that they flattering to put it mildly. Most people citing GDP figures at the very least tacitly realise this.

    The SCSI "real" cost of delivering homes are cited left, right and centre as gospel. You yourself quoted them as evidence that it is impossible to build a house for less than 300k anywhere in the country.

    According to the body of professional quantity surveyors ( and they should know) , the average cost of delivering a new 3-bed semi in Ireland ranges from €354K in the Northwest to €461K in the Greater Dublin Area.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You cannot beat the market-place. If it was possible to build houses for €300k, 350k or even 400k in Dublin, someone would be doing that, and selling them. The private market can deliver jeans for €12 or €15 in Dunnes or Pennies. Amazing what private enterprise can do on tight margins.

    If the government was trying to design, make , market and sell jeans we would be waiting as long as the national children's hospital and be charged €1000 a pair.

    No builder, public or private, or quantity surveyor can build a new house in Dublin for €300k, 350k or even 400k, can they? Can it be done? Genuine question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Why would they do it in a market that dysfunctional that they could increase their wealth even more by just not building and sitting on the site to have it to flip in a few years?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I agree you cannot beat the market place. If the market price for a house is €500k it will sell for €500k irrespective of whether it cost 300k or 600k to build it.

    No builder, public or private, or quantity surveyor can build a new house in Dublin for €300k, 350k or even 400k, can they? Can it be done? Genuine question.

    I believe it is nonsense that a new house cannot be built in Dublin for €400k.

    I suspect it's possible to build a house in Dublin for €350k.

    Maybe it's possible to build a house in Dublin for €300k, maybe it's not. I don't know. A big factor would be how you account for the land cost. If it is valued at today's prices, then I suspect tricky to get all in build cost for less 300k. If it is was bought 10 years ago, and costed as such then obviously it is a lot less tricky.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    If you think the market is going to be even more buoyant / prices higher in a few years, then it would make more sense to build now and sell it in a year or 2 when it is finished. Maybe even rent it for a year or 2 before they sell it? So if it was profitable now to build a house for 300k why are they not doing it? Why do you not do it? You could make a fortune?

    I think the answer is the quantity surveyors are right. When you add up labour , materials, taxes etc you cannot build a house in Dublin for 400k, never mind 300k. Otherwise people would be doing it.

    People ( Dunnes, Pennys etc) can sell jeans for €12 or €15. That is €9.75 before vat if they retail for €12. Think of all the work someone has to do to make a euro there.

    If people could build houses in Dublin for 300k they would, such is the demand. They could make 50k sooooo easy by selling for 350k soooo easy. But it is not being done. Why? Dunnes and Pennys are not hoarding jeans hoping they will be more expensive in a few years time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭Gary_dunne


    In the process of obtaining planning permission for a 3 bed with a converted attic in North Dublin, don't have exact dimensions on hand at the moment. Don't require a tenure process as a builder building in the locality has agreed to take the project on once planning permission has been granted. Fee proposal accepted is around €325k mark. No doubt there'll be contingencies and some unexpected costs but it will be no more than €350k all in. For full disclosure we didn't need to purchase the site which I know we are very fortunate and not everyone is as lucky.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You argument is essentially analagous to a hypothetical that you might be having about taxi drivers had they not been deregulated. Taxi drivers might be charging 30 quid for quick journeys and complaining that they can't make money because they have to rent their plates off non-drivers for 200 quid a day. And passengers would complain about the prices of the fares. And then there might be a shortage of licences because many owners buy them simply to sit on them because the licences increase in value by 20% per year.

    And you might say "but it costs 200 a day to rent the plates because they cost 2m each to buy one. Why don't you get a taxi licence and do it then if it is so profitable".



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If a small builder can build a one off 3 bed detached in Dublin for 325k then no doubt a developer building at scale can build an estate of 3 bed semi ds for significantly less than 325k per unit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You do not rent a taxi plate to built a house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    No, but you used to have to (if you didn't own one) before regulation.

    Not sure why you came to the conclusion that people might have thought you had to rent a taxi plate to build a house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Building houses is nothing to do with taxi plates regulation? Or what is your point?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    I do not think you are including things in that like site cost ( land is not "free" ) , site development costs, access roads, footpaths, development fees, landscaping, architects and engineers fees, etc. If it is a builders finish is kitchen etc included?



  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭Gary_dunne


    That is exactly why I mentioned that we didn't have to purchase the site (thankfully). We're building in a pre established estate with all services already in place.

    Development costs seem to be getting out of control theses days ie Land, roads, service installations etc. For a one off build it seems that costs can be drastically lower even when removing economies of scale as a tool for reducing costs.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Is the 325k is builders finish?

    And whilst the infrastructure around your site is complete does your build include things like fencing off site and a spot to park the car?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,208 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    It's a thing called an analogy. Used to try to explain something. Taxi licences had no intrinsic value. But people were paying 6-figure sums for them. When the market was deregulated, that just vanished. You could not argue that a taxi licence has to be worth 100k today just because someone paid that for one once and therefore that is what it has to cost. Developers buy land and outbid each other for it. That is what sets the price - not some intrinsic rarity in the land.



    This is back to the point. The reason that land can be so expensive is not because of anything other than the developer who owns it looks at the site, says "X acres. Someone could put 100 houses on that and sell them for 500k each. That's 50m. It would cost them 25m to build those houses all in. I'm not going to sell it for less than 20m. That will give 5m to the builder". If you want to prove whether or not profit can be made from building, just look at the price that people are willing to pay for the land. That piece of land which is already overvalued (relative to what it can produce as agricultural) at 10k is rezoned for housing and suddenly it is worth 1m.


    The example of the hypothetical taxi licence was an analogy. You have something which is attached to an artificially controlled supply. Because the supply is kept low, even though there is a demand, one can make money by purchasing it and just sitting on it. Which further decreases supply. If you want to drive a taxi, you need to rent the plate (in the hypothetical example). If you want to build a house, you need to get the land. In both cases, the necessary asset could be being sat on from being commodified as pure investments or speculations.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭newmember2


    If it was possible to build houses for €300k, 350k or even 400k in Dublin, someone would be doing that, and selling them.

    lols



  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭Gary_dunne


    No it's an all in price based on standard fittings, we may upgrade some of these which will increase the price for a bespoke kitchen/bathroom etc but not really a big deal for me so won't be much more than that price.

    Yes, a privately walled back garden is being built to separate the site and the space to park cars is already in place and an agreement has been reached with land owners (her parents) so not an issue.

    I know that we are in a very fortunate position and I am extremely grateful for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Wait a year or two until after the next election, it might happen soon enough.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,123 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Can you explain why its common sense that sub and super structure would be more expensive?

    Are there magic bricks and concrete in different regions that I'm not aware of? Is 804 different in Leitrim? How about timber?

    Oh wait, timber is used in furniture and flooring...hmm. Seems like your argument doesn't stack up?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Regarding the cost of sub and superstructures, the fact that they are more likely to have variations - labour, site conditions, access etc - is the common sense bit.

    even if you think the extent of the variations are horseshit - as I do - it's common sense to accept that somebody could make a plausible argument to explain why there are higher prices for such things in Dublin compared to Leitrim.

    Equally it's common sense to accept that nobody can make a plausible argument as to explain why there are higher prices for wardrobes in Leitrim than Dublin.

    If I am wrong by all means make a plausible argument, and I will stand corrected.

    But the lack of IKEA and B&Q in Leitrim is not a plausible argument. Not even close.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Wrong. If that was the reason, some of the most destitute and impoverished places on earth would have sky high house prices.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    No he is not correct and he knows it. The question is, do you? Are are you feigning ignorance?

    House prices have now surpassed their 2008 peak and this deliberate inflation was the result of that 200 billion euro, borrowed since 2008.



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