"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

Theres more than just HTB that the government is doing on the supply side though - things like the First Home Scheme etc.

That aside removing HAP and getting those 60,000 odd households out of the private rental market and into social housing would have massively more of an impact though, and save the state a fortune while we're at it, yeah. But thats going to require the building/obtaining of large numbers of social housing units after the problem was ignored and let fester for the last decade or so. Its not instant, it'll require more of a 3-5 year plan.

Removing the supply side schemes could be done almost instantly, in contrast. So it might be a much smaller effect, but it at least it would be much sooner.

I honestly have no clue what you are try to say or imply here.

So your idea is to cram those pesky poor people in tighter? Nice.

Again, Shared Equity has had a total of 100 houses purchased in 2022 and 1,000 in 2023. Looks like it will level out at 2-2.5k or so in 2024 and beyond.

I can see pros and cons to it, but on balance, I don’t support the First Home Scheme and would remove it if Minister for Housing.

That said, I think its impact on house price inflation (so far anyway) would be so small it couldn’t be measured. Perhaps it will be inflationary in future but for now the numbers are so small it’s largely irrelevant.

Agreed on HAP that there is no quick and easy way to unwind it without causing major societal issues.

The 110% mortgages were an off plans new build thing, price locked in with booking deposit, value increase before closing so 100% mortgage on inflated value at drawdown despite fixed price. They were short lived before the bust.

In the last few years, the loan to income cap has been the only thing keeping a lid on prices, the recent increase in the loan to income cap was a mistake when it was really kicking into action in Dublin.

The big risk in keeping the loan to income as it was may have been a reduction in construction output. I'm convinced this would have been temporary until site prices reduced accordingly but politically, any reduction in output would have been catastrophic given current demand.

He is correct that it is a major part of the solution. The other part is control of immigration. Both are needed.

Given the current demand from income earners who do not need subsidies, what would you do with the people who could no longer afford rent without subsidies when they are evicted? Maybe you think rents would drop, unlikely in the short term given the demand for rental accomadation.

And more pertinently, which government party would risk their policies making tens of thousands more homeless?

I can’t help but get the sense that you favour those who don’t avail of subsidies at the expense of those who need them. What you advocate could cause an exponential rise in evictions as rent becomes unaffordable for an enormous cohort of income earners who currently need subsidised rent, those that can afford it will get the accomadation they want, LLs continue to get high rents.

...definitely shouldnt escalate our housing issues, as im sure, 'the market' would appropriately respond, and quickly build the properties required!

You build social housing and move the HAP tenants into that. As things functioned in previous decades.

Moving most of the 60,000 households on HAP into social housing benefits everyone - more security for the tenants in question, reduced private sector rents for everyone renting by removing a chunk of the market, and decreased spending by the government to the benefit of every tax payer in the country.

HAP is just an awful, expensive, wasteful, policy for everyone apart from landlords.

...this would need to be very carefully done, you cant just up end people out of their communities, into other communities, without inducing serious social problems, this wouldnt be easily implemented.....

...grand so, lets unleash a whole pile of complex social problems including a rise in addiction, mental health problems and of course crime, im sure it ll all be grand in the end.....

...cause they are in fact the most common outcomes from uprooting a while pile of people and plonking them somewhere else....

...and who will pay for all of these induced issues, oh us the taxpayers of course, shur be grand.....

...thank fvck none of you have a say in the potential implementation in any of these ideas lads, some of you would just love to create mayhem!

Is your starting point that these locations don't suffer from increased social problems today?

Mary Lou is one of the greatest advocates of population increases and ‘let everyone in’ carry on… but then when people complain about that she blames the government…. SF and herself talk out of both sides of their mouth, so if you think the housing crisis is bad enough now…. Wait until you see it after a couple of years with her and SF running the show !

not only will you struggle to attain housing the same will be true, of everything from healthcare to basic administration like getting a passport replacement…. Getting access to a state physio etc… everything….

if SF are going to build X houses and apartments… where are they to be built ? They say on their website that it will be ‘ public land ‘, but what public land ? They don’t elaborate further which is a little strange. Maybe they can tell us “ hey, we’d take X land in X location, repurpose it for housing “… not very hard ! Maybe the Phoenix Park, Lough Key ? The Burren ?

the average house prices won’t fall. In Dublin as of CSO figures when I checked recently …. €430,000 was the average house price..

so with demand for housing and the population spiralling upwards and less places available to build…. ! What is the logical likelihood ? Yes prices continue to spiral upwards… you can’t cap them, not legally….. EU law prohibits it as far as I’m aware.