"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

Francis McM

Mary Lou McD has let it slip in recent hours that she thinks the average Dublin House prices should fall to the 300k mark.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/12/20/mary-lou-mcdonald-sinn-fein-leader-says-average-dublin-house-prices-should-fall-to-the-300000-mark/#:~:text=She%20said%20that%20average%20house,about%20%E2%82%AC430%2C000%20at%20present.

Figures from the CSO show Dublin prices are currently at the 430k mark. Down the country of course prices are much affordable in places. Let us however concentrate on the Capital city and I wonder has she thought this through? Capital cities in Europe and elsewhere are always more expensive than country areas.

What about the "average" buyer in Dublin who bought this year? They paid €430,000 and took out a mortgage of €387,000. They are on a rate of ~4% fixed for 4 years. Will they be in massive negative equity once SF take power?

As quoted elsewhere construction costs in Dublin at the moment are nearly €2900 per sq.m. According to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), the average cost of building a 3-bedroom house in Dublin is €371,311. That excludes site purchase costs, site development works incl roads, paths, landscaping, services, planning and development costs and fees, developer profit, etc,etc.

€300k for a new 3-bed house in Dublin is completely unrealistic. So if prices drop to 300k you will see nobody in the private sector building houses, if they can only sell them for 300k - or can be bought for 300k - and they cost a lot more than that to build.

And another point is that SF were claiming the cap on the mica relief fund was totally insufficient to rebuild homes in rural Donegal where the land was already purchased and services were already installed- but they think 300k is realistic for average house prices in Dublin? Something wrong there?

Is M L McD and her advisors for real, is she stupid or does she think people are stupid? Is there going to be another massive recession where so many are in negative equity, no new houses being built and government receipts from property taxes goes down, and builders emigrate in their droves again? Or does she / her advisors propose to control prices for goods? We saw the Soviet Union try that and and you'll get not just inferior quality but also shortages due to nobody feasibly being able to create them at this price? And house-owners in huge negative equity again, many in the building industry gone and banks in trouble again? And the IMF here again?

Personally I think one way to increase supply of houses is to train and encourage more trades people ( blocklayers, sparkies, carpenters, plumbers etc ) - there is a shortage of them in the country in recent years. If property prices were going to crash and most trades people would be out of work like last time prices crashed, that is not how you encourage them to get trained.

.

Brussels Sprout

I'm just impressed that a politician from a major party has said the magic words "House Prices need to come down".

Typically they will shy away from being that explicit because they don't want to scare off all of the home owners who are perfectly happy for them never to come down. So usually they will say "Houses need to be more affordable" or "We need to increase the supply of houses"

nullzero

Yeah, house prices are too high.

I'm sure Sinn Fein will bring them right down when they start taxing all the foreign corporations that employ most of us the way they want to, thus driving all those nasty jobs out of the country.

Then Sinn Fein can get to work on pulling all the free houses they've promised everyone out of their backsides.

Don't vote for pragmatism, vote for the Sinn Fein and their magical house crapping fairies that definitely aren't made up.

micosoft

SF appeal to the same voters as FF and the same folk who voted in Bertie & Co. three times in a row and Jack "abolish taxation" Lynch despite being warned. The problem is that Ireland will be overdue an electorally driven crash by 2030 (given we are doomed to repeat history), so Mary Lou & friends have to get in this time around to really crash the economy by 2030. Not sure they will make it and of course we've luckily got responsible adults in the ECB overseeing this kind of nonsense. I'll tell you one thing - if I were a trade I'd be concerned about expanding right now with this level of uncertainty in the market and random badly thought out government interventions.

Sweet.Science

Are they intentionally looking to lose votes ?

Strumms

Why will property prices drop ? They are slowly trending upwards again according to the CSO..

a significant number of people are coming here every month… looking to get housed and assisted and sorted. That’s not going to stop in fact it’s probably going to get worse.

the greater demand the higher the price everyone to pay …

Quiet Achiever

Population to increase by 30% by 2050, so demand ever increasing.

It's hard to see it given the cost of materials and the fact that THEY HAVE NEVER SAID WHO WILL BUILD ALL THESE HOUSES

Dav010

Christmas has come early for FFG.

https://www.finegael.ie/how-exactly-will-sinn-fein-deliver-e300k-homes-in-dublin-cummins/

Clo-Clo

Sinn Fein come out with statement to take the discussion away from immigrants because they have been suffering in the polls.

That is what the headline should read.

Mary Lou knows the conversation at the moment is around immigrants and Sinn Fein are suffering because of it, change the news story to housing and then hopefully everyone will give out about the government not building houses.

Also with Christmas Break coming up it means the media will follow that story over the Christmas now. Like sheep we flock :-)

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518077#Comment_121518077

The "magic house building tree" will be used like Sinn Fein

IT is planted beside the "magic money tree" which SinN Fein also plan to use

rolling boh

That's some waffle from Mary Lou maybe she is planning on moving the gurriers around all areas of Dublin as a way of making all areas go downhill so prices will fall .

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518077#Comment_121518077

I suppose the same magic builder who can transform a 1 bedroom cottage in Cabra in to a 5 bedroom 2-storey house for half nothing. I think she is desperate to get the votes back they've lost in the last number of months. It's all lip service, plucking a 300k figure out of the sky, but I worry sometimes about what the economy could be like if the economy crashes like that again.

Last time it crashed we were - just about (with the help of EU, UK and IMF ) able to borrow our way out. In 2006, before the crisis hit, Irish public debt stood at less than $44 billion, 24.6% of GDP, and the country was in a state of fiscal surplus. In recent reports, Ireland National Government Debt reached 243.1 USD billion in Mar 2023.

If a crash happened / crises happened with a new government, would we be able to borrow our way out seeing as we are already one of the most indebted countries in the world per head of population, the magic money tax tree from multinationals may dry up and the EU / UK etc may not be in a position to lend to us again / may have their own or other world problems to worry about?

rob316

My relative is a developer, he told me his quantity surveyors are coming back with average build costs for a 3 bed semi of €395k. That varies with site costs.

Danzy

In a functional economy, with a proper functional building sector , that would be the right price.

That's not the case in much of the world now, especially not in western Europe and even more so in Ireland.

We had 150k added to the country last year, so external demand is about 50k housing units, Irish demand of 10 to 15, and as Leo says we have a unit shortage lag of about 250k.

That's a new Dublin, where will this new Dublin go, just to meet demand as is, another Dublin in the next 6 years, where will that Dublin go etc?

Britain added 750k net this year, so they need a new London every decade, where will that go?

Who will build these globally significant projects, same is happening in parts of Europe .

Where will the materials come from? This is bigger than people realize, especially people who have never been even on a house site.

Add on top of all that we must push for net zero, despite having to embark on a globally significant building project.

Solidarity, the new name for an ultra free market approach, it's all one of the most bizarre approaches and it is at a scale that is unsurmountable and only growing.

Never mind interest rates.

It's just a complete fantasy from the govt and SF and most of the political leadership of Europe.

If it was even just managed to reflect achievable goals.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518077#Comment_121518077

How do you know the population will increase by 1.5 million in the next 27 years? It certainly won't be by natural increase.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518040#Comment_121518040

Prices will drop if SF does what FF did in the 1930s-1950s - by building huge numbers of social housing.

Crumlin, Kimmage, Ballyfermot, Gurranenabraher and the like all over the country including the Bord na Móna villages sprinkled throughout the midlands.

If the average worker doesn't have to buy or rent an overpriced property, does it not stand to reason that prices will drop in the private sector?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518630#Comment_121518630

They'll make the effort and express an interest in doing so, that alone will get them elected but they are as completely in denial about the scale as FG and FF are, despite their interest in making some dent.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517667#Comment_121517667

You are easily impressed. Should salaries come down also to make it happen?

Buddy Bubs

Sinn Féin in Ireland are targeting the lower classes, the illiterate and the innumerate, they know their audience and they spout nonsense accordingly. They know well themselves that their promises are empty.

Bobson Dugnutt

Eoin says he has worked out a formula to build houses for 300k a pop.

There’s also “putting a months rent back in everyone's pocket”, scraping the property tax, the demographics will look after themselves, a ban on all evictions.

Absolute spoofers.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518682#Comment_121518682

This is from the party which said everyone over 140k would have to pay additional tax in the "tax the rich" nonsense they came up with. Then a few months later that was 100k.

They are a shambles at best of time and Eoin and formula would be hilarious to see. My kids would probably pull it to pieces based on what they come up

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518630#Comment_121518630

The government is not setup to build houses, neither are the county councils.

Plus we have a shortage of labour in construction industry so if they set up to rival companies they would need to pay higher wages, with pensions etc driving up the cost of housing and not reducing it.

The 1930's are nearly 100 years ago, go back 40 years and Ireland is totally unrecognizable to what the country is today.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518594#Comment_121518594

2023 avg house prices for comparison

Copenhagen 650k

Amsterdam 590k

Brussels 578k

Stockholm 503k

Sheffield 289k

'Make Dublin less like Stockholm and more like Sheffield'- Mary Lou McDonald

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518630#Comment_121518630

Labour costs aren't the driver. Material costs, internationally, have risen steeply. No matter how many social houses are built you won't build a half decent house for under €300,000.

HBC08

People need to call her out on nonsense like this (maybe ask her about her parties immigration policies while we're at it)

There's a lot of bad sh1t happening in the world but seeing this showers of chancers blow an open goal of an election cheers me up.

Deebles McBeebles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518699#Comment_121518699

You mean even more like Sheffield? It's no Stockholm.

Bobson Dugnutt

That pompous spoofer Eoin Ó Brion needs to be pulled up a bit more as well. Gets a free ride anytime he appears on the radio - rolling his vowels, speaking very slowly so the great unwashed can understand his profound message, and throwing out simplistic sound bites on complex issues.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518716#Comment_121518716

Sinn Fein best chance was if the current government didn't last the term. They are absolute chancers and the more time they are asked questions the more it crumbles around them.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518735#Comment_121518735

It worked at the start and if you questioned him the answer was "oh he wrote a book on this". Has anyone read the book? no idea. But I seen him a few times live when he wasn't reading off a sheet of paper and it was a car crash.

astrofool

They should stick it on the side of a bus, where all nonsensical political statements seem to belong these days.

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

Even 300k is not really affordable. It would require a couple on the average wage each or a single person earning over 70k

The housing crisis seems to be largely one of single people stuck living at home or in house shares. I'm one such person, with a total salary of just over 50k. But a basic income (banks dont accept bonuses or commission/overtime) of 40k

When we think of affordable food we think lidl because everyone can afford to shop in it. When we think affordable cars we think Dacia/Fiat because everyone can afford to buy one. If realistically at the "magic money tree" cost of 300k only 50% of the population could afford to buy a home, can someone please tell me where the rest of us are actually meant to live. This is not an issue of entitlement, not about gaining assets/investment. I want to know from the people here saying its pie in the sky etc, tell me where all of us grown working adults who are stuck living at home or renting are meant to live long term?

It seems like the answer for many is bad rentals or the folks house forever and kick the can of what happens in retirement down to line 30 years

In the days before mass home ownership and public housing, the 50% of us in the bottom half lived in workhouses, tenements or massively crowded intergenerational homes. Maybe thats what people here expect?

Former Former Former

Ah listen, it's a soundbite. Yes, houses should be more affordable. Unfortunately, Mary Lou has no idea how this will actually come about, or how she can effect the changes necessary. She might as well be saying that China should relinquish its claim on Taiwan - it might well happen but not because of anything Mary Lou is going to do.

But she is a very canny media operator, she knows that the average SF voter doesn't care about the details, they just KNOW that things HAVE TO CHANGE and a headline like this will play very well to them.

I love the blithe assertion that SF are going to just build loads of houses. How? Where? And how does that tally with their policy of objecting to every single planning application for the last decade?