Boeing 737 Max

Following on from an earlier comment I made on thread re: Boeing's troubles.

An informative and interesting article for anyone interested in just how badly Boeing screwed the pooch with their fixed price bids for US military contracts.

On 2 contracts alone, the new Air force One and the KC46, Boeing are booking a minimum of a $7bln loss.

On the delayed T7, figures are harder to come by but the combo of delays and price rises since contract was inked? Will likely IMO lead to a further $4bln or so loss.

On the Civil side of the house, projected impact of the original 737 MAX/MCAS scandal was approx $20bln (2020 number).

O'Leary and Ryanair made sure to take advantage of the last scandal to buy 75 MAX at well below the list price in 2020. Not knocking him, always take advantage of market forces if you can.

He is no doubt kicking himself that he hadn't held off on signing Ryanair's latest order for 150 with 150 options for 2027-33 delivery.

It's already shattered any hope of regaining it's reputation as pre-eminent "Safe" aircraft. Normal everyday pax are seeing the issues Boeing has as just stacking up.

Now think of Boeing's value to shareholders, whilst carrying more than $11bln+ in Military contract losses and who $re now staring down the barrel of further losses on top of the $20bln+ losses already booked as part of the MCAS fallout. $31bln+ in losses and the news around your company is only worsening.

There's a valid argument that Boeing are too big to fail. That they have a strategic value to the US and as such may well end up being underwritten by the Govt.

A better indicator of where the markets see Boeing and Spirit Aerosystems future values is IMO, the bond markets. Traders tend to avoid risky debt unless there's a good % rate or a discount on par.

Yesterday wasn't a great day for Boeing or Spirit Aerosystems on the market. Thing is? The news of UAL finding 5 airframes with issues broke after market closed. They are both lower again today in pre-market.

It's not a door, it's a fuselage plug, a blanking panel for a door that airfame is BFNW.

As for you failing to see why O'Leary may kicking himself?

Well the comment was made tongue partially in cheek. One that If you take a look back over when Ryanair have used challenging times for Boeing to make advantageous deals? I'm sure that Ryanair would have preferred to have been signing this week, with the leverage that another serious quality issue would leverage re: a discount negotiation, than last May.

In "serious mode" That said, if they hadn't ordered last May, they would have been struggling to keep pace with their fleet renewal and airframe age profile plans.

I think in Europe, given the predominance of Ryanair and their effort to move to all Max fleet, that in realistic terms it's impossible to avoid Boring. Myself, I wouldn't even be too worried about it as I have no doubt that the airframes are well maintained. Air accidents are vanishingly rare and odds are that most, by that I mean well in excess of 99.999% will be perfectly fine. Worrying aspect is that that Alaska airframe was 10 weeks post delivery and the United airframes are quite new too.

In Europe and US and on foot of the Alaska Airlines blow out and the UAL findings of 5 blanking panels with loose bolts? I have no doubt there will be a serious implementation of enhanced checks and maintenance. The cost for those preventative hecks will have to be paid thi, and it will be by flying public.

The litany of Boeing quality and engineering issues just grows. On just the Civil side since 2010 or so. 787 APU issues, 787 batteries, 777 engines (albeit a RR issue really), 787 engine issues (GE this time) 737 engine cowlings (ongoing replacement programme) the MCAS issue, 787 grounding delivery halts and now another MAX issue.

What should jump out IMO? Is that the 787 and 737 fuselage issues, both originate with the same supplier, Spirit aerosystems. There have also previously been issues with 787 wing structures from Mitsubishi HI. The quick list above highlights other issues that originated in their supply chain, RR + GE.

The common denominator? Boeing's missing the faults in the equipment supplied. It speaks to poor quality management and assurance. I don't know what process Boeing use to QA their suppliers, be it embedded QA or delivery inspections or other, but? Whatever method they are using?

Is woefully flawed and in need of complete overhaul.

whats going on at the assembly plant?

The defence budget has been bailing Boeing out for years. Massive overruns and delays on all sorts of projects. Not to mention the Starliner farce (although it appears Boeing is having to eat most of the overruns on that)

Wrong. Completely different engineering. The plugs are not meant to be used as exits ever. They are there to allow future reconfiguring as airlines change their models/plans/owners/management a lot. New MAX real emergency exits feature an electrical locking system, they are in now way similar.

Agree, there is an ongoing lawsuit against Spirit Aerosystems regarding just that. Prioritisation of profit and schedule over QA and safety.

It's also IMO important to note that Spirit are a spin off of Boeing. The Wichita plant was Boeing owned and operated until 2005. It was where B29s and so many other planes were built. Boeing were a very large employer, lifetime jobs with whole families employed and working there. The reason I highlight that aspect, is that quality and engineering nous were embedded across generations of employees there.

Since 2005 in Wichita (Spirit Aerosystems), 70yrs of Boeing's engineer led ethos went up in smoke. The new owners value productivity rather than right 1st time. Boeing itself was already backsliding on quality and once a major fuselage and sub assembly supplier was spun off? The collapse of any quality assurance or responsible corporate culture was only accelerated.

Building a responsible and quality orientated quality culture takes years. Rejigging it is rarely successful and when the culture shifts from safety/quality to throughout/profit? I'd argue that it's nearly impossible to arrest and improve whilst maintaining the same Executives and motivations.

As amusing as that image is. I have to wonder when life became so cheap? Was it when those two planes went down a few years ago and the company treated the whole incident as something to be minimised and ignored? If I recall correctly the first response by the company was to blame the pilots. Was it before then? The plain fact is that this aircraft is used as a bargain basement workhorse. Low cost airlines use them. At first glance that's grand. However, if Boeing wanted to reassure their customers, (by customers I'm referring to people who fly economy every day) and give up their private jets and fly economy with no fanfare and incognito. If they had to risk their lives flying on their product, I wonder how quickly the manufacturing shortcuts would cease.

You might want to review the customer list; yes, the Max is flown by some LCCs but it has also been bought by many legacy carriers. Many LCCs fly Airbus products anyway, so there is no real association between this model of service and the 737 Max.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries

Apologies if this has already been asked.

I am curious to know at what altitude the aircraft was when the panel blew out.

It's not an "economy class" thing yes, but they're not totally wrong either.

McDonnell Douglas pinched pennies and cut corners with the DC-10, leading to several entirely avoidable fatal crashes and a trashed reputation which ultimately finished the company.

Then the MDD suits ended up in charge at Boeing and that company has for some years now been following the pinch pennies, cut corners playbook.

this latest doesnt exactly inspire confidence in a reluctant flyer like myself...

I invariably fly economy class, occasionally economy plus. What I won't do is fly on a Boeing jet. Their response to those horrific crashes has been disgusting. This latest episode hasn't helped with that impression. As people have said, we'd be having a totally different conversation if that plug had blown off at 20,000ft or 30,000ft, but it didn't so the incident is almost minimised as 'nothing to see here, nobody died, so that's ok.'

There are conversations about the Boeing stock price and this upcoming investigation by US authorities. That doesn't inspire confidence. They can't even listen to the voice recorder! What a great start!

Fair enough, I hope your trip goes well.

The way I see it though, is, until enough people say, 'no, I won't fly Boeing until there is root and branch reform.' Things won't change.

I don't want to ask myself as I board, 'is this plane bolted together properly?' I just want to worry about mundane things like, will we get there on time etc.

I'm not going to willingly hop on a plane that may not be put together correctly.