China v Taiwan. The next big conflict?

Taiwan is part of China, why would it be a conflict? This was agreed under the One China policy years ago and recognised by US etc.

This a a near impossible task.

You first have to find the carrier group, And then when you do, you need to know the exact location, speed and heading of the carrier (This is the hardest bit), You then need to break through many layers of defenses and finally land a big enough hit on the carrier to sink it. Note that these ships have an incredible amount of redundancy and fail safes and very difficult to sink.

Most anti-ship missiles China has carry a 300kg to 400kg warhead. (500kg max) that is not going to be enough to sink a Carrier, like not even close.

In 1987 the USS Stark (And OHP Frigate) was hit by 2 Exocet missiles (2x 165kg warheads) and although the ship was heavily damaged it did not sink and was eventually fully repaired. A Nimitz/Ford class carrier is over 25 times the size of an OHP class Frigate.

Torpedoes' "might" do the job but the Chinese Subs would need to get within 30km to even get a shot off and that's not going to happen in war time with Destroyer and Air cover constantly looking for them around the carrier group. Even then, a 250kg warhead probably will not be enough to damage the keel enough. What's likely to happen is that as soon as the Chinese Sub launches it's Torpedo, it will give away it's position and immediately be destroyed by the patrolling Seahawks, thus rendering the Torpedo dead (They're wire guided)

Short of using a Nuclear weapon, it's near impossible.

A Chinese commentators view on this lads war-mongering smear of China ‘bullying’ the Philippines (12:20):

18:49 “This is old school containment, its hard not to see it when you look at this map.”

I couldn’t help noticing this awkward phrasing – reading between the lines, this implies to me that an obedient citizen of the US or an allied country should be doing their utmost not to see what is before them or doing their utmost to misunderstand the situation. However, such a reverential citizen must unfortunately & sadly admit failure in this case and is compelled by the clarity of US aggression to admit that this is in fact old school containment. When one lives in gaslight central (the West), this is probably as close to what passes for neutral as it gets.

“This (US) strategy could provoke the very strategy it is trying to deter”

This is totally wrong.  The US strategy is 100% aggressive provocation (recklessly gambling with a direct US/China war IF it miscalculates). It has already gambled & risked nuclear war in its engineered proxy war against Russia. 

There is so much BS in these posts you could fill a silo with it.

I'm sure - at least you can agree with the guy in the youtube video that this IS old school containment.

He thinks it is.

Are you disagreeing with him also?

Funny stuff. Anonymous source says X Y Z which always happens to align with & support current US geo-political war mongering.

That is so convenient, no?

Just a normal Monday in "Western reality" land.

Just like any article in the free market press (as opposed to a free press) that claims for the 57,386th time that the Chinese economy is about to collapse. The latest hyper-ventilating is about a huge property company that is being allowed to go to the wall by the government there (like should have been done here with Anglo). They are doing this to correct the housing market. In the Western press it is presented as a housing bubble collapse and foreboding a total collapse of the Chinese economy.

None of this is news reporting, it is gas-lighting. Same with the military 'reporting'.

Chad Scott is a good source for info on current military concerns around the world. His background is logistics and artillery. Here are some videos he made on the China-Taiwan situation.

https://gemoo.com/tools/upload-video/share/603336743792947200?codeId=v62NeaeN5xq9y&card=603336740089376768

It's definitely NOT a great time for China to blockade Taiwan, their economy is limping along badly as is.

Blockade is much easier said than done. Nobody paid attention to what happened to the Russian navy in the Black sea ? Even Taiwan can smash a blockade with missiles (not what it wants as that that is war but if China tries to isolate Taiwan , Taiwan armed forces will have no choice but to break the blockade) let alone other navies such as US who will not let it go unchallenged as they always insist to keep the Taiwan strait navigable.

The US maintains full carrier groups to operate a war in Atlantic and Pacific simultaneously. If it needs to it can do that , the Pacific has its own chain of command.

So a blockade has what end result ?

It fails meanwhile causing massive economic damage. During the blockade shipping to and from China is also highly disrupted. Sanctions may be enacted.

Or it results in a war with no clear end point with potential to become a world war, meanwhile causing massive economic damage, and China still have no way to actually invade Taiwan and take it over. They can wreck Taiwan but taking it over successfully is extremely difficult. Taiwan has far more capable defensive capabilities especially cruise and supersonic anti ship missiles and mining boats along with large air force and now drones . Ukraine wishes it has the weapons that Taiwan has .

Unlike Ukraine the US is legally obligated to help Taiwan and both the Congress and the President and both parties are very clear they will support Taiwan in a conflict. The US has started to put marine groups back in the Philippines , Japan also has started putting forces on their islands close to Taiwan.

Overall it's likely China will bide it's time until the KMT and associated parties could get back into power, probably not this year though. Many people in Taiwan would rather negotiate with China the problem is that China is very untrustworthy and everybody knows the Chinese don't respect weakness.

That particular user has a thread in the CT forum that blames the US for Tianamen square... I think it's more gullibility tbh.

No Just someone who doesn't believe stupid claims like 1 million Chinese soldiers will be killed in 48 hours,

That's takes some believing along with the biggest invasion the world has ever seen I don't think so.

Sure you'd probably believe anything....

Most low levels do