China v Taiwan. The next big conflict?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847830#Comment_120847830

What does China want a blue water navy with hundreds and possibly thousands of vessels, power projection and protecting their vast investments around the globe aka the road and belt initiative aka the Silk road 2.0 infrastructure and properties, pipelines , railways , deep water Ports and cities,mines from their own borders to Africa, south Africa, South America, Europe, Russia ,the artic ,so far we've seen the velvet glove approach with political access across the world and on the other hand they are building a iron fist for when diplomacy doesn't work,and investments need protecting,that's where your Blue water navy comes into play, soon enough you will be able to board a train in Beijing and stay on until you hit Berlin and paris ,

They have done something nobody else has in several centuries,they made the world dependant on everything from cheap clothing, medicines ,and technology,3G ,4G,and 5G networks all built with primarily Chinese technology,they have access to everything run through global networks , cheap phones, laptops , desktops all connected to Beijing,

Why do you think Japan, south Korea, Australia and New Zealand have been brought into NATO in all but name and they won't be the only ones over the next few years,

China has the ability to dominate global politics for decades to come

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848639#Comment_120848639

The one comment I'd make is that China is a more infinitely dangerous opponent than Russia if you take a long term view. However as its resource poor its still vulnerable. China imports some 73% of its oil. The majority of it shipped by tanker from the Middle East. Disrupt that flow and it would hurt their economy.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848717#Comment_120848717

Even Russia realises that they are dealing with a different animal in China,and to think the Soviets planned to nuke China at some point,

Bet they will live to regret that in the near distant future

37% of US attack submarines unavailable.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/politics/us-attack-submarines-repair/index.html

The Ukraine war has been a real eye-opener in terms of corruption and disrepair in the US military. A lot of the stuff given to Ukraine has been useless or in a poor state of repair, incl stuff from prepositioned stocks that are supposed to be well-maintained in case USA suddenly goes to war. In one report, 28 out of 29 Humvees were unusable and Howitzers were so badly maintained they would have killed the Ukrainian crew if fired.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/army-sent-vehicles-rotted-tires-and-misfiring-cannons-ukraine-watchdog-finds/386959/

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848717#Comment_120848717

And which countries are stupid enough to disrupt the flow of of global oil supply knowing full well it would blow up the global economy within a month ?

AbusesToilets

I think the US could fairly comfortably handle the Chinese if it came to war. The "blockade" of Taiwan recently persisted because the US didn't disrupt it. The USN has been planning and preparing strategies to counter China for a very long time. Mostly likely approach would be a blockade themselves. Aerially deployed seas mines into Chinese ports and standoff bombardment. The Chinese can certainly strike with long range missiles at US bases, but what does that accomplish in the long run?

The West is currently dependent on Chinese manufacturing by choice. It would be painful, but that can be reversed. Governments and businesses are finally waking up to the realities of the kleptocratic nature of the CCP

2Greyfoxes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848717#Comment_120848717

Not really, China's fleet is stuck to the Pacific Ocean, and can be easily blocked due to Jthe geography of the area, South East Asia, Japan, Philippines, etc. It hems in any Chinese fleet, and makes it far easier for the US to use a smaller fleet to block the Chinese fleet access to larger waters.

Where as Russia has limited access to both the Atlantic Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean. While it is true that Russia is also in a position where it can be blocked off easily enough, (Baltic Sea, and the Norwegian sea) having access to both Oceans gives it a slight upper hand.

Why would the United States go to war (potentially nuclear) with China over a relatively small amount of land that is Taiwan (less than half the size of Ireland).

It's not as if China wants to go on the march like Hitler or Napoleon.

Whilst I think Taiwan should be able to defend itself (like Ukraine), the world going to war over the matter makes no sense to me.

brickster69

US and it's allies need to speed up arms to Taiwan so it can defend itself from itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-needs-speed-up-delivery-weapons-taiwan-us-general-2023-07-14/

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120850079#Comment_120850079

Read up on the Chinese use of their "Fishing Fleet" and how they are persistently violating sovereign waters of nations in the Southeast Pacific. The Chinese want resources. Their foreign policy belt and road initiative is built on dept traps for poorer countries.

You might not like the US, and while they act in support of their hegemony, the US Navy acts as a bulwark against Chinese domination over Pacific.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120849322#Comment_120849322

Hmm. I interviewed to Norfolk shipyard once, years ago at this point now mind you but never got a call back at the time. Funny how times change.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120849364#Comment_120849364

I'm talking in terms of a US-China conflict breaking out (hopefully never). But if it did, I'd be very surprised if oil imports to China weren't targeted immediately.

Interesting article from the BBC detailing the defiencies in Taiwan’s armed forces as it attempts fend off China’s rapidly growing capabilities.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67282107

fly_agaric

...I see I was just replying to some very old posts (above) that irritated me...so deleted! Apologies.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121331780#Comment_121331780

China has until about 2030 to make a move for Taiwan. If it doesn't do it by then it'll begin to feel the effects of the 1 child policy they had for so long as their population and economic clout begins to decline rapidly.

Belt and Road initiative hasn't worked as well as envisaged with a heap of projects way over budget or just left unfinished, so they won't be able to leverage that in any conflict either. (Most of the highways are done but pipelines, energy, rail and comms links are way, way behind)

If China were to go to war it's very likely that the US, Australia and possibly Japan would intervene. The battles would be fought mostly over the sea. China has absolutely no chance of defeating the US and it's allies at sea. Like literally 0%. US Aircraft, Ships and weapons are so incredibly far ahead (and more numerous in the ways that matter) of China that it wouldn't stand a chance.

Even if they made a dash across the sea with 100's/1000's of ships, the buildup would be seen by satellites well in advance and on top of that, Taiwan itself is difficult to invade. There's only 2 or 3 suitable landing sites on the West side of the island for a large scale invasion, and Taiwanese have these well covered. (there's rumors' of underground pipes filled with fuel specifically designed to set the beach on fire if it ever came to that)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121337011#Comment_121337011

Not so true on the naval battles as it stands China outnumbers the US Navy fleet, China has been pretty smart though they didn't set themselves up to go toe2toe with the US naval fleets they built there missles offences towards taking out the foreign vessels with near unstoppable hypersonic anti ship Missles who's range will keep US several thousand km from Chinas mainland, even if they can launch aircraft to help Taiwan they won't have the fuel or weapons to make return trips to a aircraft carriers ,and similar to what where seen in Gaza the Chinese can Bombard Taiwan with missles and aircraft without risking taking on anybody else ,

China will play to their strengths

Beta Ray Bill

Not so true on the naval battles as it stands China outnumbers the US Navy fleet

Numbers Yes, Tonnage No. I think tonnage will count more in this scenario

near unstoppable hypersonic anti ship Missles

Yes they have them, and they've allegedly been shot down in Ukraine. And also lessons learned in 2005 show that its extremely difficult to sink a carrier. Yeah you could take one out of commission, but sinking it is not gonna be easy. And even at that. there's not details on how many they have or how effective they really are. Could be smoke and mirrors

You are correct, that China could just bombard Taiwan with missles but they want to take the island and all the tech/industry that's on it. Leveling the place is no good to them, they need boots on the ground and that gonna be near impossible.

And most importantly of all. The USA has a battle hardened army. They have been directly involved in many conflicts around the world. China does not have this.

Gatling

@Beta Ray Bill the ones shot down over Ukraine aren't hypersonic weapons they were just air launched ballistic missiles , what China has is modern hypersonic glide weapons,they fly Mach 10 and manoeuvre like an aircraft something air defence system aren't able to intercept,it's one the the few weapons the Americans fear they call them carrier killers, while the US is struggling to produce a similar weapon

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121337474#Comment_121337474

See this is what gets me.

China has somehow managed to get the tech to build a weapon that can travel and Mach 10, yet the bulk of their fighter planes are running on a WS-10 engine (A rip off Saturn engine) and it's proved problematic for years and years and they cannot fix it. (There is a B/C version now allegedly that matches the Saturn) It's 20+ year old tech.

I get that Hypersonic weapons probably use a SCRAM jet but even then, that tech is more advanced than Turbofan engines. How have they just leap frogged that tech level. (Running before you can walk)

Podge_irl

https://warriormaven.com/china/chinas-df-26-carrier-killer-missile-hype-vs-reality-how-will-the-navy-stop-them

There certainly is a lot of unknowns around the "carrier killer" weapons, but whatever countermeasures the US has against them we are unlikely to know much about it.

Regardless of all this, launching and maintaining an amphibious assault of the magnitude required is not exactly easy for any armed forces. Not to mention the economic turmoil it would cause.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121337676#Comment_121337676

It kinda doesn't make sense considering there version of the F22 raptor is bigger and has been stuck using older design Russian engines even there navy operates clones of the Arlie Burke destroyers, then out of nowhere they produce the the ZF17 which seems to be one of the most modern hypersonic currently anywhere, it's not often that the US gets surprised by someone else's tech,

https://www.ft.com/content/a127f6de-f7b1-459e-b7ae-c14ed6a9198c

AbusesToilets

The US has a massive advantage in submarines, which would be a decisive threat to the Chinese surface fleet imo. US strategy would likely be too aerially mine Chinese ports and starve China into submission. Guam would probably be reduced to a smoking crater, but the US has been focusing on distributed forces for the last while.

They're also in the process of bringing online (publicly) 6th generation stealth aircraft, whilst Russia and China struggle to field their F22 knock offs with functional engines.

Modulok

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120850079#Comment_120850079

Because a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would break the first island chain which would make Chinese hegemony in the Pacific a real possibility. If China becomes the hegemon in the Pacific, the Philippines, Korea and even Japan may become client states, and abandon democracy. The stakes are very high.

China is building its navy so they can patrol the oceans and secure their supplies and trade. The country that controls the oceans, controls the world to a large extent. The British were in that position in the 1800s; the Americans for the past 80 years and counting, and the Chinese want to supplant them.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121339822#Comment_121339822

Unusual article, US achieved the fastest ever Hypersonic flight in 1967 with the X-15. Yes ,it was at a height of 30km, glide vehicles in the remain at that height until they reach their terminal phase.

I think the bit the US us worried about the most is "how does the guidance system work?". There is no way to communicate with the weapon once it reaches hypersonic speeds at low altitude due to the plasma wake it creates. A similar phenomenon is observed in space vehicles reentering the earths atmosphere at high speeds. (Lose radio contact). The same phenomenon will also make it difficult for Radar to target the weapon, even if it has line of site.

It must have some sort of system where is guestimates where a target will be before it enters terminal phase as it will lose comms/sensors. Then uses internal inertia sensors (similar to what submarines use to guide itself to where it think the target will be. Remains to be seen how it will work in practice. (Hopefully we never see)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121337011#Comment_121337011

“If China were to go to war it's very likely that the US, Australia and possibly Japan would intervene”

I’d hazard a guess that this is part of Taiwan’s strategy. They would only last a limited time on their own, hence the need for outside intervention. I don’t know if there is a permanent presence of US forces in the Philipines, but the nearest large concentration of US forces would be at Yokosuka naval base in Japan which is one of their biggest bases outside of the US itself.

As regards Taiwan’s own strategy I’ve read a fair bit of stuff emphasising an asymmetric strategy, with a particular focus on anti ship missiles rather than spending money on headline grabbing items such as fighter jets which would be quickly overwhelmed by Chinas far larger airforce.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121341219#Comment_121341219

The "strategy" is very interesting reading.

Taiwan never once declared it's independence from mainland China and both MLC and Taiwan both claim domain over all of China. This means it's "Technically" a self administered state of MLC China. And they are still "technically" at civil war. If Taiwan ever declared itself independent then MLC would have no choice to invade as it would then "technically" be a rouge state. this is the crooks of the One China Policy.

A lot of "technically"'s there... sorry... the reality is its all BS

There's also talk of M.A.D in which Taiwan is claiming it could destroy the Three Gorges Dam (You'd need a hell of a lot of explosives to destroy it, I think it's all talk)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121341319#Comment_121341319

“And they are still "technically" at civil war.”

True. The Chinese civil war never officially ended, so it’s akin to Korea, where two states claim jurisdiction over the whole peninsula. It’s thought China had plans to invade Taiwan in the early 1950s, but once they intervened in Korea, the US kept a large naval presence in the region to block them off.

Going forward, Taiwan has to remain in the “netherworld” to exist. Any overt moves towards independence will bring about a Chinese response. As regards a M.A.D. strategy, it’s also rumoured the Taiwanese would sabotage their semiconductor fab factories to keep them out of Chinese hands.

RGARDINR

I wonder would the best thing that Taiwan could do is if America and Taiwan secretly agree US presence on Taiwan. Have a marine division land there and set up base.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121344818#Comment_121344818

I'd say the US stationing an entire division on the island would cause the Chinese to have an absolute hissy fit. There is an actual US military presence of about 40. It's been reported that there are plans to increase this to between 100 and 200.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/02/28/more-overt-us-support-for-taiwan-is-fraught-with-risk/

Interesting article suggesting that the logistical difficulties China would face in attempting an invasion of Taiwan would be bigger than what the Allies had to deal with for D Day.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5036552