China v Taiwan. The next big conflict?

Dohnjoe

Read/watched so many different takes on this, a few of my take-aways:

• Taiwan is not nearly as prepared as people think for any sort of invasion
• They are however preparing by the day, which does put a "clock" on China
• I suspect the US wouldn't directly engage Chinese units if invasion occurred, rather they would race to create a supply corridor and protect it, while the Chinese would race to close the loop
• The global economic damage would be severe, it's probably the number 1 reason on China's table for not taking action
• 
  

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591608#Comment_121591608

don't forget north korea, who are basically in 'hold my jacket' mode.

Lucien_Sarti

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591608#Comment_121591608

You seem to yearn for the days of 1945 -©2013 as if it were some halcyon period of wine & roses. Undoubtedly in pre-categorised & privileged zones, countries that are meekly obedient to the hegemon and that benefit from Pax Romana - there was/is a good life for specific bought off groups. But…….

Imperial US wars alone (incl. coups, warlordism, worst of worst WMDs used with abandon, state run opposition-mass-murder programs, depraved terrorist groups, paramilitary death squads, inhuman sanctions etc etc) resulted in upwards of 30 million deaths in that period, in multiple theatres of war carefully selected to serve the interests of the ruling class.

US & colluding minor western powers caused famines via installed strongmen regimes in which 1 billion+ died of starvation needlessly – all to protect the ‘rules based order’ & resource extraction from the neo-colonies (Global South).

If any of those 30 million or 1 billion by some miracle could speak today I’m sure they would have a few choice words to offer about the Eurocentric concept of WW3.

Carlito Brigantes Tale

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591608#Comment_121591608

Everything stems from having a weak US president. He's not respected or feared. Trump isn't the answer either.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591608#Comment_121591608

For the first point, Russian "collapse" was and still is very unlikely. It's military however has been significantly weakened, lost hundreds of thousands of troops, high equipment losses, lowered stock, Black Sea fleet significantly weakened and they've had to dig pretty deep (recruiting prisoners, going to N Korea for arms, etc)

Second point, the US navy is not "stretched thin" in any sense.

Third point, US weapons stockpiles are not "pitiful", it's the strongest military in the world by a long, long way. China is struggling to build their 2nd carrier, the US has 11. In terms of timing, indeed, if China wants to take action against Taiwan (and are betting the US won't intervene in direct conflict with China) then "now" could be better as a) Taiwan is less prepared b) Biden is not Trump. But on the flipside, such a move against Taiwan would cause a massive global economic kickback that would seriously hurt China. Imperialistic goals aside it doesn't make any sense from any economic perspective.

Fourth point. I don't even know what that is.

aidanodr

The TAIWAN Election is / was today. Results in it seems

Ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in #Taiwan’s presidential election, a man Beijing has labeled an “instigator of war”

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121607928#Comment_121607928

The Ukraine war was a godsend to China. They have learned a lot about modern non nuclear war and the behaviour of the west.

If they have any sense they will be re evaluating their military and their invasion plans from the ground up. It looks like taking ground against a dug in professional military with modern equipment is almost impossible (even difficult against the Russians poorly trained force). To do that across a straight of water is surely much harder again.

They would be better off waiting until support for Taiwan dwindles, even if that takes decades.

Yes, Lai Ching-te (DPP) won with 40% of the vote. However the DPP lost its majority in parliament in the legislative elections.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610617#Comment_121610617

The difference between China and Russia invasion plans the Chinese will probably pound Taiwan for months from the mainland,sea and air before attempting any type of invasion, where the Russians invaded Ukraine at pretty much no notice to Russias planners have been in disarray since , china had been planning this for decades

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611778#Comment_121611778

I have a funny feeling for a few wks before hand they will send 100s of planes over each day to Taiwan prior to invasion and then 1 day the planes will open up with their missiles and bomb loads on Taiwan and hit multiple targets. Taiwan won't be expecting it as they will have been dealing with all the 100 of planes flying over at their territory for wks on end before this attack happens.

Nauru (South Pacific) has severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established relations with China. That leaves only 12 countries now that have diplomatic links with the island.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67978185

junkyarddog

Varadkar in favor of the "One China principal"

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/we-recognise-china-and-that-taiwan-is-part-of-china-varadkar-clarifies-ireland-s-position-ahead-of-davos-meetings/ar-AA1n8IGt?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=a3ec873bde0a42c7873f4318a5653b2d&ei=18

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631852#Comment_121631852

Surprise , suprise

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121621736#Comment_121621736

Apparently now the Chinese Media are now censoring maps showing what military aircraft types and marine vessels flew or sailed close to Taiwan, where upuntil recently were showing the aircraft, squadron and weapons systems,

Which is a bit of change

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121631852#Comment_121631852

The "one china principle" is the CCP's own position (Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and that the two will be reunified one day). Varadkar expressed support for the "one china policy" (recognises China, and that Taiwan is part of China). Crucially, how Taiwan will become part of China is left unaddressed. It's the "strategic ambiguity" ploy being used here, similar to what the US engages in re Taiwan. That the Chinese media tried to interpret Varadkars words as support for the one china principle isn't surprising since them telling the truth wouldn't be their most important aim.

The Continental Op

Found this interesting, suggests China won't be invading any time soon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oupSYGUL0dE

keeponhurling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610617#Comment_121610617

To achieve reunification, what they would be better off doing is building cultural ties and economic relationships with Taiwan. Then we're talking about a partnership or merger, rather than a violent invasion.

Basically that's what they were doing up to 2012 before Xi took power. I even remember free travel for tourists between Beijing and Taipei back in the day. Now reintegration is further away than ever. Even in the case of a "successful" military invasion, the island of Taiwan would bring instability to China for decades to come given the level of fear+hate towards the CCP. That increases 10-fold if China start killing Taiwanese.

I see some posters saying that China's economic woes are a reason for not invading. Surely it's the opposite? Dictator 1.0 shows that when there are domestic difficulties it's best to create an outside enemy, so we can expect more posturing around Taiwan, the DiaoYu islands or any other border disputes they can manufacture.

Whether Xi will go for an all-out war is the question....given how dependent they are on exports, sanctions would absolutely bury the Chinese economy. Not good for China obviously, but would he really care? Censorship seems to be at an all-time high and he'd have his foreign enemies to point the finger of blame at. Like during COVID, a line of "it's bad here but never mind that, it's way worse in other countries, the West is falling apart.."-type guff.

Modulok

So many reports in the media in the past week of various European officials warning of WWIII, unpreparedness, the need for rearmament and conscription, etc. has a real ‘fall of Rome’ feel to it for the west.

Eastern Europe: engulfing all of Europe and NATO

Taiwan: involving Japan, China, Korea, Philippines, Australia and the US

Iran: in the Middle East to control shipping lanes and oil lines

…those are the probable theaters.

Carlito Brigantes Tale

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121680179#Comment_121680179

The west's weak response to Russias invasion has set the tone and lead by the worst president in the history of the US. The middle eastern actors, NK and China have seized upon this weakness since the day Biden's troops where chased out of Kabul.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121680351#Comment_121680351

USA wasn't "chased" out of Afghanistan. They announced their departure well in advance. As part of the United States–Taliban deal, the Trump administration agreed to an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by 1 May 2021, if the Taliban kept its commitments.

Modulok

Excellent article here on how interlocking regional wars led to WW2; and how a similar scenario is very possible in our time: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/next-global-war

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121680351#Comment_121680351

Trump was a far worse president.