Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Well, I was talking about the reticence to support Ukraine fully early on in the war for fear of escalating things into a wider conflict. I would say that fear has passed, so short of other countries sending their militaries into Ukraine or doing big attacks on Russia (bigger than the drone attacks and airstrikes which have already happened), Russia aren't going to do anything really beyond what we've already seen.

Not with standing the Ukrainian gains in the Black Sea my optimism of 2022 has evaporated over 2023 and now my long term view is quite depressing.

Ukraine’s bravery thwarted Russia’s plan to decapitate Ukraine in the first few days but it feels like the west has missed a chance to end the war quickly by not fully backing Ukraine to win. The west’s slow drip drip has given Russia the time to get its war industry up and running despite sanctions.

The west might have a much bigger economic capability but it hasn’t mobilised its industry to match, much less over match Russia’s. Given enough time Russia will find ways around the sanctions. Add in its high capacity to absorb losses and suffering this could run on for years and years.

Ukraine has played a blinder so far but unless the west fully commits Putin will drag this out. A stalemate in Ukraine in the current positions is a win for Putin. Eu and NATO membership will be off the table, Ukraine’s economy severely damaged, all reconstruction on hold, millions of UKR citizens lost to other countries. This war will also allow him to continue lock down Russian society strengthening his grip on power.

If it quietens into low intensity stalemate, he will move on Georgia, Moldovia or even Belarus. (Don’t see him ever going directly against a NATO country but there are other countries he could target)

To Putin a stalemate is a win for him and a western loss. This will embolden him and other dictators around the world. (Iran NK, China are clear candidates but there are others)

I think this is a pivotal point for the free world and depressingly at the moment we are sleep walking into a new world order that won’t be anything like as peaceful or comfortable as it is now.

I hope I’m proved wrong and the west gets its finger out and turns military manufacturing up to 11 to over whelms Russia’s capabilities but I fear the longer this drags on the greater the risk of our resolve fading.

Lol .

Which ones like the military expert you claim isn't a respected military expert because he calls it as it is ....

Maybe a new hobby or account

This shift isn't uniquely tied to poverty either. Huge levels of immigration from outside the EU was always going to lead to a rise in the right. Especially when policy makers have been doubling down despite public opinion wanting otherwise.

Agreed, we're pretty well insulated here. I had the UK, France, Spain and Italy more in mind, particularly the UK given the Tories exceptional performance in driving inequality over the past 15 years. And it's not just Russia that funds far-right idealogues and authoritarian candidates - the USA and China are quite adept at it too.

Causes of poverty are always complex and often contradictory. Immigration can be a red herring though, I think. Taking the UK as an example, most of their immigrants are either Irish, Polish, Indian or Pakistani - countries with strong historical ties to the UK:

Migrants in the UK: An Overview - Migration Observatory - The Migration Observatory (ox.ac.uk)

Illegal immigrants to the UK are still a tiny minority but are used by the Tories to push quite an insidious agenda.

Most common migrants to Germany are Romanian and Turkish, both EU countries. France takes in the most from outside the EU; mainly from Africa and Russia. The vast majority of immigrants to France are working, whereas 75% of their prison population are French nationals.

We all know that economic inflation is the main driver of poverty. I keep reading differing accounts of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, which was probably the point of the original tweet from Belarus above. It seems like they want to portray the west as broke to deflect from how dire things are over there.

I am not sure the real experts were of the opinion that Ukraine was not going to last long. They had specialist advisors on the ground giving advice, pre war training, intel, satellite imaging, telling them exactly the Russian battle plans and time and how best to draw them in and stop supply lines etc.

In terms of latest weapon tech no country really wants to hand their latest weapons to the enemy, which is what happens in a war, they don't want the Russians knowing the range of missiles, how to counter them, how to copy them, how to identify them and knock them out.

In terms of how long the war is going there is an opinion it's going perfectly for USA, little to no USA troops on the ground, economically crippling Russia for decades, Russia unable to withdraw, Ukraine nowhere near defeat. Similar proxy wars have been funded by USA for generations with low risk and high reward. Even leaked USA documents from a year ago expected no real change in front lines in 2023. Potentially 2024 was a probing year and Ukraine are waiting for enough equipment and a clear advantage before all out push. They may know they don't have that.

That's not to say things don't go to plan and that there is not political messing going on and that it takes months or years to get planes and pilots and tactics ready.

I suspect the real war strategists know exactly what's going on and the USA war machine is months ahead of action on the ground and can predict progress 3/6/9 months out.

Well rehearsed POV, lots of similar back through the thread.

It could hold but like bakmuth there is no guarantee that they won't keep grinding away at it ,it will be a kick in the teeth if and when it falls in reality, it would mean after the big summer offensive they actually lost more territory than they liberated,

But it seems they are more willing to fall back rather than risk thousand for a small town /city ,it's probably one the the main reasons they are now building multiple layers of defences more or less mirroring what the Russians are doing over the last year

Nice one mate. Any military credentials to show there?

What Russian propaganda....

Ohhh dear ......

Is that the best effort over two years

Our Western idea of a Putin win is very different to what Putin himself sees as a win. Chaos and destruction in Ukraine stopping EU& NATO membership =win, occupation of 20% of Ukraine =win, Ukraine economy in tatters =win, millions of refugees in the west to stir upright wing anti immigration trouble in the west=win.

Everyone is hoping that a combination of 500k casualties, stalemate on battle ground, huge equipment losses, and pressure on Russian economy via sanctions is seen by Putin as a loss. I’m not so sure - I hope I am wrong.

Ukraine has done amazingly well but could end up in a never ending war - it looks like neither side can land a knock out blow at this point.