FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Christmas eve

Also the low heights should reduce the 850hpa level by a few hundred metres which would be of help .

ICON has joined the party having been relatively mild up to now. Baby steps in right direction if you are looking for cold at Christmas.

Don't think i've ever seen a fax chart like this with such a high, high so west/north of the Azores, don't know quite what to make of it. Miserable in the west/SW if it happens like that.

GEM (Canadian model) keeps it cold from Dec 23rd through to the 29th which is the longest forecast spell I have seen in the past week or too. Looking at the ens, it looks like the op run favouring a longer spell may not have significant support right now. That said, the 850hps for Christmas Day are cold in the majority. Quite marginal for snowfall away from high ground I would have thought

The ECM denies us the white stuff on the big day, but of course Scotland gets pasted. The only positive thing to say it may deliver a decent cold spell in the days afterwards. There is going to be ups and downs till about Monday, hopefully by that stage we will see polar lows coming down in a straightline northerly on both the ECM and GFS for Christmas Eve:)

Quite the FAX chart for Wednesday. A 1050hpa high and a cluster of low systems to the north. Low 978 drops southeast, generating a NW airflow and causing the High to fill in and drop south. It's hard to see any other scenario arising from the below FAX, if it were to verify of course

Edit...sorry @Supercell just noticed you posted earlier too 🥴

With that kind of difference in the pressure gradient I wouldn't rule out a storm at some stage over the Christmas period. If we do get a storm hopefully it pulls cold air down in its wake.

In Nasa we trust:) As you say the odds do seem to be diminishing for a White Christmas. At least it would be seasonal for the big day on the last GFS Op. Anything would be better than current grey dreariness

A big storm does develop on christmas but it tracks up towards iceland...track and intensity could still change ...if the jetstream gets stronger it could make it alot worse and even change the track..we will know in the next few days

The charts have been so all over the place recently that...

I think it’s going to end up being a now cast on the day 24th-25th So much can happen over the next few days with the models but a 48hr mini cold snap looks almost set although as it stands now not cold enough for snow. Maybe mountains and some inland and northern parts.

its going to be edge of the seat stuff watching the models over the next few days. Fingers crossed 🤞 ❄️

Whatever about Christmas Day, I’m actually more focused on after it and particularly into January. I’d be so happy if the models started showing northern blocking for early January consistently from say 25th Dec onwards.

With more free time over Christmas it would be so exciting viewing the models and counting down the days to a potential cold outbreak in January. Fingers and toes crossed 🤞

Remember don't look out the window on Christmas Day and it will snow. That's what I did in 1995. The best weather year in Ireland. Hot Summer and white Xmas. We had it all in those days n didn't know.