FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

pauldry

Wheres Norway gone?

nacho libre

The GFS pub run trying to provide some festive cheer for the 23rd and 24th.

WolfeEire

I reckon this GFS will be a little cooler overall in the mean compared to the 12z. There is a definite shift to a colder trend. Polar Maritime is the favoured source of cold on the 22nd/23rd which can often bring snowfall to higher ground in the west and north in particular where marginal 850hpas are negated by an unstable airflow and the fact that we are in the heart of winter (from a length of day perspective).

As a milder outcome could not be discounted (there are members, few as they are, supporting this), I am interested in where that Atlantic high ends up. That will dictate the longevity of this potential Xmas cold spell. The below Aleutian low keeps popping up in recent days around the same time period. It will have a bearing on weather/systems downstream

pauldry

Don't want a snowfest just a day of it or is thar too particular? Have a lot of travelling to do. Dec 21st forecast on GFS is back to what it was yesterday and snow gets pushed to the 23rd to 26th period. Between Dec 21st and 26th there will surely be one cold wintry day but as we know Ireland is almost snow proof.

Dazler97

I hope the north and west gets some too ,fingers crossed anyway 😀 actually even an easterly I'll be happy 😀 , looking good but models would want to maintain this cold snap look ,let's see what the next 5 days brings modle wise

WolfeEire

The AO and NAO dipping to negative territory toward the end of the month

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Hooter23

The system bringing the cold is more like a storm now coming down from the north which does not happen that often...blizzards if you get some snow with it...

Gonzo

That cold spell is more or less watered down to a very marginal situation at this stage after getting slight downgrades yesterday and big downgrade this morning. GFS always overdoes cold and snow potential from the west/north-west and we end up with cold rain and hill sleet instead, this is why I only get excited for easterlies and north-easterlies. Still this is a better situation than 14C and long fetch south-westerlies for Christmas.

For this cold spell to get a series of upgrades we need northern blocking to come back first and without that we won't do much better than what the charts are showing at the moment.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121493998#Comment_121493998

Latest panel for Christmas Eve at 7pm. Cold favoured. There will be a many more fluctuations between now and Sunday week! Christmas very much in FI territory. The GEFS ens for the days up to Christmas is a tad cooler again on 00z. The low-res op run wasn't great.

Hooter23

The good news is that its still a week away which means the charts are not correct yet anyway....so still plenty of time for downgrades like now and upgrades later which would be better...

..the potential storm around christmas day starting to show up on charts now..does not look like much now but by then that will change too

Gonzo

Hopefully no storms, i've had my fill of wind and rain at this stage!

Tazio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121494715#Comment_121494715

Yeah saw that pop up again...... the 24th/25th seems to be on/off for wind on some models for the last 7 days..

nacho libre

The GFS chart earlier for Christmas eve was over the top, widespread red warning for the UK if that happened. We can do well from north westerlies but we need to see the ECM and the GFS on the same page, the trend to me seems like a halfway house solution between the two which probably means cold and wet for most rather than cold and white, with any white stuff on the highest peaks . I hope i am wrong and we see the models converge on a potent polar maritime incursion. I wouldn't rule out a storm happening either. A raging blizzard for Christmas day anyone? M.T. Cranium if you could sort that out we would be very obliged! Well, some of us would!

WolfeEire

The 12z GFS rolling out now (insert token 👀). The ensembles are important for cold weather prospects as the trend of the past 24 hours has been the heights rising to our southwest, which makes any cold push more westerly than northwesterly.

The ICON has reverted back to colder conditions from Wednesday with some fairly tight gradients showing up meaning very strong winds and a cutting wind chill factor with a plenty of fast moving, heavy mixed wintry showers from midweek.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z basically wipes out the cold spell, just general flat as a pancake zonal relatively mild muck for Christmas with snow basically confined to the Scottish highlands.

Hooter23

The charts dont just do daily forecasts...they change there forecast 4 times a day so you wont have to wait very long for another completely different forecast 🙃 anyway if the charts were upgrading now there would be nothing but downgrades closer to the day...

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495822#Comment_121495822

We ain't going to get upgrades to any sort of serious level, not while northern blocking is completely absent. We will probably have to wait till January for that.

God, plus 8C uppers according to the 12Z GFS at +384. That’ll confuse nature rightly…..

pauldry

Sure this weather will do if we don't get that but we won't get this either will we?

Looking forward to -50c on Xmas day on the Xmas party GFS pub run tomorrow night.

JCX BXC

Reading this thread is like listening to schizophrenic thoughts. So many voices saying totally opposite things 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496337#Comment_121496337

Absolutely. Dry at zero degrees or +10, I’m happy either way if one can get out of the house for a couple of hours. But as you say, we probably won’t get either. Atlantic muck here we come……

WolfeEire

Relax everyone..JMA has this one covered

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496677#Comment_121496677

Reliabilty???

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496685#Comment_121496685

No computer model is reliable this far out. But if the majority are agreeing on a rather zonal setup for Christmas then the JMA is on its own even though it does mirror some of the colder members of the ECMWF ensemble. JMA is quite decent in medium term forecasts so I wouldn't discount. It also got the December cold spell nailed down in and around the same time GFS was signalling it. All models are going to make another swing before too long so I wouldn't get caught up on any one day of runs or single.run. Polar maritime airmass in the lead up to Christmas is still the most likely outcome in my opinion.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121496746#Comment_121496746

Brilliant thanks

pauldry

Even if zonality wins the day (and even if it doesnt) there'll be some milestone at the end of the year. Ireland will have broken the 1.5c threshold of the Paris Agreement ....maybe

Hooter23

So now we have warm air coming down from the north west instead 🙃

pauldry

Yup. Anyways the deep cold next week appears to hit Northern areas with a glancing blow next week so Ulster might get some snow around 23rd or 24th. The rest of us will have to dream. The Azores high prevents the deep cold coming down upon us. For now.

However I feel there could be a few more changes as this is far from a resolved outcome. Even a shift Southwest of a few miles of the Azores High and we would be in business. Odds on Scotland seeing a white one are very favorable.

pauldry

Ya I've been analysing it all morning and currently the night of Saturday 23rd would appear to be our best chance of any snow.

Hooter23

The difference between this chart and the last one is still so big that the forecast at this point is still useless...still another few days away from getting a proper forecast