FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Wil see if this cooling trend takes hold, unsettled looking charts that would probably include some wintry precipitation, no very deep cold, alternating temperatures with frontal activity but colder than the present relatively mild spell anyway would think.
EDIT: Spelling
Post edited by Meteorite58 on6 -
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The 6z is getting there for warming towards SSW levels however what we are seeing is still not a proper SSW. Some of the runs do bring the warmth into the pole and a displacement of the PV but no evidence yet trending towards a split which is what I really want to see.
Overall average trend:
Certainly shows the PV will be under pressure in early January but the PV is still in business as this looks like a displacement event. This does not look like it's enough to reverse the zonal winds for that we really need a proper split. If the above verifies I imagine there would be another go at getting an SSW later in January but it's getting a bit late for winter fun if we have to wait till end of January.
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The 6z gets us to SSW warming levels and a massive area of warming all the way from Europe, across Asia/Russia and almost as far as Alaska. While not an SSW because we don't get the warmth into the pole nor a split, I'm hoping we will see this upgrade further over the next few days. It does appear that we are going to get a major warming of some description during the 1st week of January.
NAO/AO look like they are going to head back into negative territory during the 1st week of January so northern blocking is very likely to come back. Some decent baby steps in the right direction.
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The 6z set of ensembles is almost complete and it's looking like we are starting to develop a minor cold trend towards the final days of December with the colder ensemble members starting to bunch together in the -3 to -6 range and a few outliers appearing which go colder. This potential short cold spell is unlikely to amount to anything noteworthy but at least December may finish up feeling a bit more seasonal. Basically from Christmas Day onwards it's looking average temperatures or slightly cooler than average vs the very mild conditions up to Christmas Eve.
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A storm system keeps popping up for around the 27th too on various models. The GEM below. It looks like colder weather overall from Christmas Day onward but the Atlantic looks fairly mobile for the next 10 days which means (more than likely) a polar maritime airmass. The jetstream does look like dipping south and weakening altogether by around 7-10 days which is good news.
www.weatheire.com
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Models sticking for now with the colder trend as we move into next week. Lots of Lp's about so frontal rainbands bringing plenty of rain on and off, how they interact with the colder airmass will be of interest no doubt. A mixture of rain, sleet, hail and possible snow by the end of the week perhaps if the models hold they way they are looking these last couple of days. Impossible for any clarity of timing etc, lots going on in the Atlantic, winds will be shifting around a fair bit but looks to have weather coming down from the N and NW by the end of the week.
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GFS 6z some of the members are beginning to get very close to a split so a split of the PV may be possible.
Other members are getting close but for the most part we are still looking at a displacement. If the above verified we would probably get a reversal of the zonal winds with fun and games setting up for the second half of January.
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GFS 12z turns slightly wintry.
some low level cold to end the year for a day or 2.
First week of January stays chilly with a chance of some mid level cold.
We finish up with mild air trying to get back in from the south-west but we are so close to pulling in proper cold weather with wintry conditions.
Could this be the start of it all, hinting towards colder weather into the new year.
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