Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2023 04:40PM

AROME was slow to get going with this system but showing strong winds on a line roughly from Limerick to Dublin and further up the country now too, especially through Northern counties. Big call for Met Eireann to make for Dublin during commuter hours.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-11-2023 04:41PM

The gfs has finally woken up, what a model cops on 6 hours beforehand joke!

LambshankRedemption · 12-11-2023 04:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358722#Comment_121358722

But everyone uses roads.

adocholiday · 12-11-2023 04:43PM

Looks like a bit of a downgrade to me on the 12z runs. AROME, ICON and ARPEGE all keeping things in the orange criteria, although maybe some localised red areas. The GFS is also coming onboard now but only showing red level gusts on the Clare/Galway coasts around landfall.

jackboy · 12-11-2023 04:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358721#Comment_121358721

It's not that they are not affected, it's that they are not impacted. A red means schools must close. No school in Ireland is in that position yet. If local conditions mean a school cannot open, that is independent of a red, orange or yellow warning.

ArraMusha · 12-11-2023 04:46PM

Anyone got the most recent GFS or ECM model images. I haven't time to run them, thanks.

Update: thanks I see them above

Pacing Mule · 12-11-2023 04:48PM

For me I think timing is a factor now for Dublin. The red warnings getting later as you move east. If those winds stay as strong, and a red is needed for Dublin it will be Red for when everyone is meant to be travelling to work / schools etc. It's a major economic decision to go Red in Dublin and possibly one that there would be some pressure to avoid unless it's absolutely nailed on necessary.

glack · 12-11-2023 04:50PM

What do we reckon the chances are of an upgrade to Red further east?

Hippodrome Song Owl · 12-11-2023 04:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358738#Comment_121358738

Do you honestly believe that a school manager could plan to safely get to a school and assess the local conditions in reasonable time for opening at 8.30-9am when a red warning expires at 7am? Seems totally unrealistic to me.

km79 · 12-11-2023 04:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358738#Comment_121358738

Schools in Clare and very specific parts of Galway and Roscommon are…..

jackboy · 12-11-2023 04:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358762#Comment_121358762

I agree. With the current warnings that is exactly what is expected of them.

waterwelly · 12-11-2023 04:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358766#Comment_121358766

The ones that open between 3 and 5am?

waterwelly · 12-11-2023 04:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358762#Comment_121358762

Years ago there was no red warnings, life went on and schools stayed open.

Total overreacting these days, by some.

pureza · 12-11-2023 04:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358714#Comment_121358714

Local radio stations up to an hour ago anyway and definitely virgin media this morning were still reading forecasts prepared probably yesterday

Hence no urgency

There will be plenty based on that who won't be expecting what's coming

Cluedo Monopoly · 12-11-2023 04:55PM

Yeah I can see it's a 2 hour red for Galway. 3am to 5am.

Storm Ali was also fast moving but it hit at around 8-9am. It was severe in Galway for a couple of hours and then gone.

Hippodrome Song Owl · 12-11-2023 05:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358776#Comment_121358776

Given the litigious nature of Irish parents, I think any overreaction is understandable, perhaps even necessary. Even something as simple as inadequate ratio of teachers to pupils could leave school managers exposed to claims, if staff were unable to arrive on time. It's a very common scenario for school staff to commute long distance, while pupils live locally.

I certainly don't envy anyone making these decisions on the safety of large numbers of children, and certainly wouldn't judge anyone for being over cautious.

Anyway, for my own work I hope any red warning is issued soon if it's going to be. I can only reschedule tomorrow's plans if it's red, but if it's too late to make alternative arrangements, I'll have to go ahead regardless of the risks. Hoping the models are accurate for now and we go ahead in unpleasant but safe-ish conditions!

BlueSkyDreams · 12-11-2023 05:04PM

Not a weather expert, but Dublin only seems to be amber in the Irish warnings, but the Met Office seems to have the strongest winds predicted in Dublin vs Galway/Cork/Limerick.

Gusts up to 100kph in the capital.

Storm 10 · 12-11-2023 05:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358776#Comment_121358776

We knew nothing about storm Debbie in 1961 until it hit I went to school then sent home stayed on O Briens Bridge for a while watching the Corrib going the wrong direction with the wind then walked home dodgeing the sea flooding in slates and branches falling lucky I was not hit but it was very exciting.

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2023 05:12PM

GFS only now getting more in line with the other models although still showing lower wind speeds but more in line with AROME ,deepening rapidly on approach and as it moves overland. because of this track keeping the highest rainfall more to the West, NW, SW, NE. More guidance needed from the next model output.

HARMONIE 12Z showing the strongest winds missing Dublin on this run keeping it to Orange warning. Very strong winds through the midlands and showing Cavan, Louth and Monaghan in question if to be included in Red warning level, would be around commute time for work/ schools etc.

PokeHerKing · 12-11-2023 05:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358776#Comment_121358776

I remember years ago when you could suck down a nice Camel or Malborough in the boozer without any warnings as well.

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2023 05:17PM

Could easily see Orange warning levels for rainfall as highlighted in the HARMONIE map below and would be very close to a Red level rainfall, i.e.

Greater than 50mm in 6 hrs or less

Greater than 60mm in 12 hrs or less

xx_model-en-328-0_modharmonie_2023111212_22_949_157.png

LambshankRedemption · 12-11-2023 05:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358840#Comment_121358840

Happier days. *cough cough*

PokeHerKing · 12-11-2023 05:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358848#Comment_121358848

Ignorance is bliss to be fair

ofcork · 12-11-2023 05:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121356755#Comment_121356755

I thought we had storm domingos a few weeks ago?

Dazler97 · 12-11-2023 05:44PM

I think Leitrim should be in orange (currently in yellow ) I mean south roscommon is in red crazy how they have south of counties or east Cork in warnings it's mad

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2023 05:47PM

A Hi Res nowcast model showing exceptionally heavy rain like the HARMONIE and embedded thunderstorms, could see a straight line wind scenario , wind strengths more or less as Met Eireanns forecast. Rainfall could be a huge problem now for the areas highlighted below, that is close to not far off 3 inches of rain on top of a saturated ground falling in a relatively short time.

modswissnow_20231113_0800_animation (2).gif

modswissnow_20231113_0800_animation (1).gif

Neddyusa · 12-11-2023 05:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358919#Comment_121358919

If the forecast track of the strongest winds shifts north, Leitrim will be included, but ME forecast is still showing strongest winds south of Leitrim.

PokeHerKing · 12-11-2023 05:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358900#Comment_121358900

Looks to have been Spanish Met who named that one. So not part of Ire/UK/Dutch list.

Dazler97 · 12-11-2023 05:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358934#Comment_121358934

That's it ,I know the slightest change and I'm gonna be in orange warning

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2023 05:57PM

UKMO HD 12Z is a stonker, very powerful on this run, it would bring Kerry into Red warning also if Met Eireann use it in their suite of models and if it corresponds with their other latest model output. This model often overdoes the winds by about 5-10km/h but even so looks nasty.

Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

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