Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

nacho libre · 12-11-2023 10:03am

They - Met Eireann - must be confident enough of it happening given the update in the Morning Forecast. Of course things may change, but if they don't a lot of places could be impacted. It will be very brief though.

giveitholly · 12-11-2023 10:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357404#Comment_121357404

I'd say the fact it is hitting Dublin around the peak morning commute will have them a lot more cautious in Glasnevin

nacho libre · 12-11-2023 10:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357410#Comment_121357410

Yes, I suppose so there is that too. They will be sweating on the afternoon runs.

FastFullBack · 12-11-2023 10:18am

Named Debi now, with Orange warnings for large parts of the country

Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath, Wicklow, Clare, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary, Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Stormy on Sunday night and Monday due to Storm Debi with severe and damaging gusts.

Possible impacts:

- Damage to exposed and vulnerable structures

- Dangerous travelling conditions

- Disruption to services

- Damage to power lines

Valid: 02:00 Monday 13/11/2023 to 12:00 Monday 13/11/2023

Issued: 08:57 Sunday 12/11/2023

Oscar Bravo · 12-11-2023 10:20am

Nasty little system with lots of rain in it. But where will the strong winds occur. Orange warning now in place

BrianD3 · 12-11-2023 10:22am

Orange warning for midland counties yet only a yellow for Cork, Waterford, Mayo and many otherrs, I don't recall ever seeing that before. If we do get actual Orange level windspeeds inland, here will be a lot of damage done as there is a lot of low hanging fruit.

giveitholly · 12-11-2023 10:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357437#Comment_121357437

It happens all the time that only certain counties get orange warnings during a storm. It all depends on the track of the system

adocholiday · 12-11-2023 10:24am

UKMO HD is really going for it. Red level winds for much of Dublin from 6am to 10am

xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023111206_25_4864_254.png

Oscar Bravo · 12-11-2023 10:27am

Tonight will bring a mix of clear spells and scattered showers to begin. Thundery spells of rain will follow later, turning very heavy in places, especially over Connacht and Ulster with some flooding, hail and lightning possible. Cyclonic variable winds will pick up in strength too with very windy or even stormy westerly winds developing. Some severe and damaging gusts are possible. Lowest temperatures of 6 to 10 degrees

BrianD3 · 12-11-2023 10:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357442#Comment_121357442

No, it is rare that coastal counties in the south, west and north get lower wind warnings than midland counties.

nacho libre · 12-11-2023 10:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357437#Comment_121357437

Yes fairly unusual. Also the spread on the models and the way it has kind of crept up on us. As you say Debi might might not last long but could do a fair bit of damage as it sweeps across the country. Well this is assuming there are no downgrades on the ECM output later today.

Flaneur OBrien · 12-11-2023 10:31am

I am not looking forward to travelling from Mayo to Dublin with an empty trailer at 6am tomorrow.

Unavoidable due to a house move that has to be completed tomorrow.

giveitholly · 12-11-2023 10:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357452#Comment_121357452

Kerry,limerick,clare and Galway are on the warning? That's a fair chunk of the West Coast

adocholiday · 12-11-2023 10:48am

GFS 06Z showing some stronger winds now but still not near the levels other models are showing and it mainly affects the East. ICON HD and UKMO HD both show a similar picture but UKMO is stronger. Maybe some sort of consensus beginning to form on track but intensity is still a big mix.

Oscar Bravo · 12-11-2023 10:56am

Met office gives some intense rain over Connaught with strong winds for NE

BrianD3 · 12-11-2023 10:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357458#Comment_121357458

ME are going to earn their money if they get this one even half right! If there is a slight change in track could the likes of Cork go from a yellow to a red warning. Given the projected track of the storm and the impact on Dublin on a Monday morning at school and commute time, I could see this turning into a red warning and school closures for the southern half of the country.

nacho libre · 12-11-2023 10:58am

It seems a bit strange that some parts of Mayo and Roscommon are not included in the warning yet Galway and Longford are. I suspect when they refer to Galway, not all of the county will experience orange conditions. Perhaps places like Tuam and Dunmore will be yellow only?

PokeHerKing · 12-11-2023 10:59am

Morning commute should be interesting, I'll definitely be taking the car!

Looks very fast moving at least, be over quick enough.

SouthWesterly · 12-11-2023 11:05am

An ad popped up on Facebook

Screenshot_2023-11-12-10-04-02-987_com.facebook.katana-edit.jpg

Cork2021 · 12-11-2023 11:09am

Strange parts of North West Cork aren’t in an orange level… especially with Limerick in orange…

giveitholly · 12-11-2023 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357565#Comment_121357565

I suppose that is where the flaws of the county based warning system comes into play. They can't just include northwest cork in the current system

waterwelly · 12-11-2023 11:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357565#Comment_121357565

The glaring flaw with the system is it's all Cork or no Cork.

So if Skibbereen is in a red zone the schools in Mitchelstown close too.

adocholiday · 12-11-2023 11:18am

HARMONIE 06z just out and has red level gusts right across the centre of the orange warning area from Met Eireann, Dublin seeing red from 7-10. ARPEGE looking more similar to the GFS.

I would think at this point the track is more or less nailed down, just the intensity to be confirmed but still quite a lot of consensus already on some very strong winds tomorrow morning.

The only thing is that the models tend to overcook the max windspeeds when they start showing storms and tend to downgrade closer to the event. Given this has kind of sprung up it could just be the models overplaying it and we may see some downgrading in the evening runs. Hopefully at least!

Cork2021 · 12-11-2023 11:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357586#Comment_121357586

Yes but they specifically noted west cork the other day.. time to start drawing lines maybe..

waterwelly · 12-11-2023 11:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357463#Comment_121357463

If it's a red warning you'd have to cancel it surely?

BrianD3 · 12-11-2023 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357565#Comment_121357565

They have to draw a line somewhere but would want to be very, very confident to issue a lower warning for Cork than for Limerick and most of the midlands. Slight change of track and a coastal county like Cork gets hammered. I wouldn't like to be the principal of a school in Cork, Dublin or anywhere else today really. This could be as bad as the Christmas 1997 storm for parts of the country that are not accustomed to such weather and have a lot of trees and roofs that don't get regularly stress tested.