Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

Meteorite58

Might be worth putting up a storm watch thread at this stage with the ECM now very much showing some seriou winds across Ireland and just over 24 hrs away.

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Well that is a surprise I think seeing the ECM move more towards ARPEGE, a huge shift . A lot unfolding here, if this were to happen like this it could be quite stormy across Ireland as the storm deepens as it makes a quick transit, dont see these often, usually more see the type of strong winds that loose power the further inland but as this looks it could bring those very strong winds sweeping across the country or even increasing inland but I reckon we haven't seen the exact track or strength yet, big changes still from each run.

Currently showing a fast moving and deepening storm move across Ireland early on Mon morning and a difficult one for forecasters, that would be some serious winds just around school drop offs .

As it looks would think it could be a high end Orange at least , very high around Galway/Clare.

Meteorite58

Some very wet conditions showing up especially in the W. NW, much of it falling in the early hours of Monday morning.

Meteorite58

UKMO HD a bit further South of the track of the ECM, but similar angle of track, need to see other models come on board to have more certainty.

24hr accumulation. Can see why the Met Office have issued an early yellow rainfall warning for Northern counties on Mon.

Total accumulation up to 6pm Monday

Dazler97

Finally found this thread, can't believe this could possibly be the 4th storm and before Christmas as well

giveitholly

Any idea when Met Eireann will decide to name this or not? Or when they might put out warnings?

Oscar Bravo

Advisory for Ireland

There is potential for a spell of wet and very windy weather over Ireland on Sunday night and for a time on Monday as a deepening depression tracks over the country.

Possible Impacts:

• Localised flooding

• Poor road conditions

• Fallen trees / branches

Further updates to this advisory will follow on Sunday, November 12th.

Valid: 23:00 Sunday 12/11/2023 to 13:00 Monday 13/11/2023

Issued: 13:26 Saturday 11/11/2023

Robwindstorm

This will be a forecasters nightmare, a little over 24hrs away and what could be a potent storm could also turn out to be a regular wet and windy spell.

.Donegal.

Debi is next on the storm name list. We’ll find out in the morning.

Comhrá

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121356755#Comment_121356755

'Debi' has an ominous resonance.

nacho libre

I hope this won't be another letdown. Sometimes these systems at short notice can be quite potent. At least we won't have to wait too long to find out this time

adocholiday

The 18z ICON, ARPEGE, and AROME (up to 6am Monday) runs have dialed back the wind speeds considerably. UKMO HD and HARMONIE still showing some strong winds for E to NE later Monday. GFS continuing to show a non-event.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357011#Comment_121357011

Yeah, the GFS is showing it windier now closer to the East but mostly offshore and sweeping across the UK, more like 80 to 90km/h, ARPEGE , UKMO and ECM similar track now, but ARPEGE not as strong whilst the UKMO looks a lot stormier over Ireland but normally inclined to show it a bit stronger than what it usually is ( just before the off normally comes in line a bit more). So a head scratcher. ICON not showing anything too strong, gusty yes but not a storm.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121356987#Comment_121356987

I can cope with being let down. The only thing I want is an uneventful winter and a normal spring/summer next year.

TIA😁

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z is an eye opener, rarely do you see such strong winds being shown so close to the off, showing some serious winds N Kerry, more so Clare and Galway and very strong stormy winds sweeping across the country. So unusual to have such a big spread in the models so late in the day.

ECM very similar to the UKMO at this stage.

Meteorite58

HARMONIE now on a similar track, deepening , moving very quickly and bringing very strong winds and heavy rain over Ireland. Looks very wind in the East late morning /early afternoon.

Dazler97

Some gusts alright around in Sally gap on Monday morning but look at those feels like temperatures 🌡 -14c

.Donegal.

Met office update for the North. Rare occurrence for them to mention storm force.

Monday:

Dull with heavy rain, also very windy with gale to severe gales for some, particularly in south and east, perhaps touching storm force for time. Winds, rain easing from mid-afternoon. Maximum temperature 11 °C.

nacho libre

Met Eireann mentioning very heavy rain for Connacht and Ulster with possible spot flooding in places. It could be very windy too with damaging gusts in places. It will shoot through quickly, so a few hours of wind at most.

DOCARCH

Siobhan Ryan saying warnings to be issued in the next couple of hours. She said Orange with 'embedded Red conditions' (whatever that means!). She also said 'severe and rare' conditions! Quite dramatic talk from her!

From what she said, would have to assume Storm Debi on the way.

King of Spades

First I’ve heard of this storm even though I keep a close eye on the weather. Will catch a lot unawares. Is it even named yet?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357319#Comment_121357319

Not named yet but would have to expect it will be.

adocholiday

ECM 00z showing nearly 200km gusts north of the Dingle peninsula, with GFS showing hardly a breeze across the country. The spread in the models so near to the event is mad. ICON and ARPEGE also not going for much but UKMO continues to show strong winds crossing the country.

JanuarySnowstor

She's my favourite presenter at the moment, usually very good. I don't see this storm as being much though! Unless she thinks it will hit Dublin on exiting and impact a large population

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357329#Comment_121357329

UKMO has much of Dublin getting gusts well into orange level at 8am so if that comes to pass they may opt for red, peak commuting time.

For what it's worth UKMO was the closest forecast to the track of Ciaran, wonder if it's the most correct now!

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357346#Comment_121357346

Perhaps a short red is required like for say 2 hours. At least it would delay the schools opening which is priority!! Unusual that Dublin is in the impact zone combined with worst possible timing

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357329#Comment_121357329

195kmh gusts on Dingle peninsula so a lot of people, including me in it's path.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357364#Comment_121357364

Quite a few models create nothing. Indeed the latest Icon just out barely has a force 6

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357386#Comment_121357386

It will be a busy day in Glasnevin! Dammed if they do/dammed if they don't warnings!

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357388#Comment_121357388

The only option I can see is that they leave it until after the afternoon runs. There's quite a high chance nothing will develop as there's too many models not seeing it. An accurate warning at 6pm gives people/media enough time to prepare imo

giveitholly

And we officially have a storm. Debi has been named by Met Eireann

Robwindstorm

From 'rare and destructive weather' to a possible wet and windy weather. This is a nightmare for forecasters between the worst possible timing to complete unpredictability, and it's less than 24hrs away. I have never seen this happen before.