Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I was responding to what I thought was an exaggerated example of seven or eight tenants being removed in order to house a couple. I would still maintain that this example is fairly rare.

I can understand some reduction in occupancy. A couple may purchase a property with a view to starting a family and for period of time will have unoccupied rooms until they fill them with offspring. But this is necessary and understandable. It is not, after all, about cramming as many people as possible into as few rooms as possible. The fact that some landlords do this does not make it right.

I was renting in two houses in the past 10 years, both were sold and both were rented by a number of adults at least equal to the number of bedrooms. 3 adults in the first, 4 in the second.

All my friends were in similar situations. Now I own a house, 4 bedrooms, 2 adults living in 1 room and I've no wish or need to take in a tenant.

The one I was in that I was talking about had 1 couple and 3 single people when we moved in first. 2 ended up moving their girlfriends in a few months down the line when the landlord said that was ok with him.

To sometimes in rentals you get extra people moving in. Same can happen for single people owning houses too, but its probably much rarer these days.

But yet the council dont house social tenants in house shares, which would dramatically clear down the waiting lists, if not eliminate them altogether.

All fair point and I agree that it wouldnt be a politically popular deision.

But its a perfectly legal practice and is commonplace for every other cohort in society. Students, working professionals, people who have seperated from their partner and so forth.

It doesnt make sense that social tenants should be insulated from this reality, when its a loved experience for those that pay their own way.

Demand is nationwide. There is still property for sake that is below the cost of construction in places.

Looking at bonkers mortgage comparison site green mortgages @90,%LTV are available at about 3.75% and BOI seem to be doing a standard loan for 3.95% four year fixed. Those rates take a lot of risk out for FTB.

A couple of us here early when rates started to rise pointed out that Irish rates might not increase substantial because of the high levels Irish savings. Rates are only 1.5-1.8% above pre interest rate increases

Rent allowance accommodated house shares, does HAP not do the same

Only If people request it. They should be offered it and if refused, to the back of the list you go.

People shouldnt be offered own home accom on the social unless they have kids of school age or a genuine need to live alone.

The numbers on the waiting list would soon diminish if they house shared like everyone else in society.

Heck, some folks might even get a job so that they can afford their own place!

McWilliams likes making that prediction. He does so fairly often, like back in 2019: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02T5nv4jXZTmHeWiwyEbSHQm5m4P5WBXTTdFYaMpHY7rXanERcPf9r3RVieqpHPTQLl&id=6303603305

Eventually he'll be correct of course.

Don't see it getting cheaper in the next 12 months.

The Ukraine war ending and the 100k refugees head home may push the needle.

That said, some builders look to be in difficulty, not able to afford rates that subcontractors are charging, and I'm sure interest rate rises are having a large impact there too.

It's up to the ECB to deal with interest rates, so look at inflation in Germany and France to get an idea whether they will increase. Not looking good for rates dropping anytime soon, and I'd imagine Irish banks will be slow to reduce rates, seeing as they were slow to increase them.

Why extract one sector of the CRE market to back up the claim. The one sector that was changing massively anyway for a long time before 2019 as people changed their shopping habits and no longer used physical shops for purchases. Just look at Philip Green and how the high street changed his property portfolio…this was way before 2019. It was around 2016 that more retail shops started closing than opening.if it was only retail that McWilliams was talking about in 2019 then it was not a prediction as was happening for years before.

On the Other hand in 2019 he was saying that all the new hotels being built were never going to be filled and we had a massive oversupply. Have you tried to book a hotel room recently is there any sign what he was saying was correct.

in regards office space there was very much a divided opinion in 2018/19 and many like McWilliams highlighted the big tech head quarters as a sign the market had peaked….This assumption comes back to a phenomenon in the UK whereby every time a UK Bank opened its new shiny new HQ the bank was either taken over or got into difficulties. (many believe that this is because they paid more attention to the HQ than the actual business). There is little to no Empirical evidence to support this but make for good reading.

warehouse space was always going to be a growth area because of brexit and the fact that it looked unlikely that an agreement on trade would be reached

That leave residential property in the CRE market (I think the definition in the regs is 6+ residential properties = CRE) There is still no signs of slowdown here because as investors pull back AHB have stepped in. Take Apartment building in cork at the moment currently just shy of 1,000 hardly any BTR as investors and majority all being built for AHB as either social or affordable and I would expect to see a very similar situation in Dublin.

Saying McWilliams prediction in 2019 was right is not necessary the case when you jump into the facts..Also you can’t ignore the elephant in the room of his prediction in 2019 that house price will fall and don’t buy now as you will loose which he then doubled down on during Covid. Anyone listening to his advice then are financially worse off today.