Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121300303#Comment_121300303

Pubs and restaurants are closing though - the rate of cafes, bakeries, restaurants and pubs closing has increased massively over the last 2 years with energy costs going up

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121304571#Comment_121304571

It's hard to know if now is a good time.

The market seems to be in a weird place where interest rates haven't reduced asking prices. There's so much demand that people don't seem to care.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121306274#Comment_121306274

It depends heavily on your personal circumstances. If you want cheaper accommodation and are happy to stay in a location for a few years buying makes sense. If you want to go travelling or need to move for work renting makes more sense. Buts that's only a small sample of the factors that need to be considered.

The biggest difference to this housing boom and the last is in the restrictions placed by the central bank which limits houses prices. So it's hard to forsee a housing crash like what happened at the end of the 00s. Even at this stage prices have settled a bit but remember last year the income limit went from 3.5 times a persons salary to 4 times which will have countered the increase in rates to a degree.

The other big thing is the rental market. Irish rental regulations are not setup for long term renting. So if you don't qualify for social housing at some point you will have to buy or hope a future government changes the laws around renting.

What is a good time is relative and heavily dependent on a persons situation. Buying at the end of the housing crash was a "good time" to buy. But it didn't matter if you didn't have the income, saving and job security to be in a position to buy in the first place.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121297099#Comment_121297099

May I remind everyone that immigration is not to be discussed on this thread, as posts quickly descend to this sort of nonsense.

This is a moderation instruction - do not reply to this post.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121306274#Comment_121306274

How much are current prices being propped by government throwing billions at housing?

Rents are bananas due to the government renting the majority of all rentals- bananas rents are making buying look like the only show in town. If and when corporation tax dries up will the government still have the dough to prop up prices - doubtful!

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121307705#Comment_121307705

Offsetting this are the large numbers of young people living with their parents.

As/if rents drop, they’ll move out and put a floor under it.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121307705#Comment_121307705

are the government renting the majority of private rentals in the country? A statement like that really needs some proof. As RA doesn't match current rent rates for available units, regularly a headline, how is your statement true? Landlords were forced by law to accept it because landlords refused it. I just find your logic doesn't make sense. Do you have some information I am unaware of?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121293203#Comment_121293203

Really this is going to turn out to be a lot worse than expected. IMO this is the start of it. Just look at the top providers of corpo tax in Ireland. Pfizer are in trouble, Microsoft seems to have gone quiet, Twitter X is after halving in value, Apple and facebook are shedding jobs left right and center. There are about 10 MNCs that provide the majority of corpo tax in this country not mention a high % of highly paid jobs in areas of Pharma and IT. If these companies are in trouble and on the way down you can get your life that Ireland is too as we hitched our wagon to FDI along time ago and the next 5 years is going to be hard as our government overlords get weaned off spending our high corpo taxes for pi1ss poor services and replace it with ??? (your guess is as good as mine).. Keep an eye on unemployment if this starts ticking up over the next 2 years we may well see another 2008 scenario and back then we didnt have countries pumping up to go to war. War + continued reduction of cash inflows from FDI = Ireland's finances phucked (even further). Already we are seeing contraction in GDP and inflation is falling and what are the odds that the lads dont drop interest rates quickly enough and we see a situation were we have fallen off the ledge and the safty net of dropping interest rates to stop the world (not just Ireland) going into a deeper recession maybe even a depression is not put down quick enough. Very interesting times ahead but pointing at full employment and saying all is good in the hood is a snapshot of good our economy was maybe 12 months ago we will see the results of whats going on currently in say another year or so. Ireland no longer exists in a vacuum and current global events that are going in Russia, China and Isreal will have a huge effect on FDI and already had impacted over the last year or so and as pointed out in a year or 2s time we will be like junkies looking for our next FDI cash inflow. We are also going to have 15% harmonization corpo tax rate come into play which IMO will see even less corpo tax coming in.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309402#Comment_121309402

Twitter was always loss making. They paid SFA corporation tax.

Microsoft and Apple are not in any trouble - they sell actual products not ad space, and their business models are safe and highly profitable.

Meta and Google would be higher risk, relatively speaking, but are still very low risk of anything like the situation you describe happening.

Pfizer is suffering from the lack of ongoing covid vaccine demand, which anyone with half a brain could see would not last forever. They will simply fall back to pre pandemic position which was still highly profitable also. Their other lines of business are still very very profitable.

None of your doomsday predictions hold any weight - the only real risk is these companies no longer booking profits through Ireland. The profits themselves are well safe.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309436#Comment_121309436

OK so its all good just ignore the below links of top companies falling value and losing profits so and forget about China collapsing and forget about America doubling its borrowings just to stay afloat, sure while we are at it lets all just sing kumbaya and see if the Russians, Ukrainians, Israelis and Palestinians will join in. Like I said if Ireland didnt hitch its wagon to FDI we would not be exposed to what ever the blow out is from the current issues but we did and look it was great it kept the party going while a lot of other countries were struggling you only have to look to our right and see how badly the UK is doing.

Twitter is now worth half of what Mr Musk paid for it.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2023/10/x-formerly-twitter-valued-at-half-the-amount-elon-musk-bought-it-for/#:~:text=X-,X%20(formerly%20Twitter)%20now%20worth%20half%20the%20money,Elon%20Musk%20paid%20for%20it&text=The%20social%20media%20platform%20has,if%20for%20a%20year%20ago.

As stated about Pfizer being in trouble and making losses which is bucking a long profit making trend.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/pfizer-pfe-q3-earnings-report-2023.html

Facebook in trouble

https://www.dw.com/en/meta-faces-a-future-of-more-legal-woes-and-falling-revenues/a-64352968#:~:text=Meta%2C%20formerly%20Facebook%2C%20is%20in,doesn't%20seem%20any%20better.&text=Since%20Facebook%20officially%20became%20Meta,of%20its%20stock%20market%20value.

Apples Value plummeting

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/apples-plunged-1-trillion-2022-economy/story?id=95930467#:~:text=The%20company's%20shares%20rallied%20in,fell%2019%25%20over%20that%20period.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309306#Comment_121309306

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0526/1301144-esri-report-on-renters/

From may last year, that percentage is rising all the time too

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309493#Comment_121309493

Nearly everything declined from the covid highs once interest rates began to rise and the excess cash injected during covid was gradually removed from circulation.

Apple and others are fine. Well above the 'worrying' 2022 lows. You are just doom-mongering, always warning us about the next imminent collapse that is always coming but never arrives.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309493#Comment_121309493

Meta shares were $89 a year ago today, just before that article you linked was written, they are $303 now.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309493#Comment_121309493

Since when has a company's share price reflected the health of a company?

Not for a long long time.

Paper doesn't refuse ink, and for every doomsday story, you'll find the same amount of positive stories.

Remember Black Monday in March 2020?

alwald

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309511#Comment_121309511

You are getting it wrong still, years of predicting doom and gloom here and yet nothing is happening to the property market.

I will come back next year for your predictions, wrong still I guess, say nuttin fam! Bless.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311529#Comment_121311529

Well you have certainly convinced me that the rental market is on a sustainable trajectory!

The government paying the majority of rents in the country is normal and our corporation tax is reaching for the stars forever more. I shall say no more, eh, fam!

J_1980

huge jump in european real estate stocks and drop across entire EUR rates curve.

looks like houses will soon leg higher again….

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121311035#Comment_121311035

Well I have been consistent a year ago I said we would find ourselves in trouble at some stage in the next 2 years 12 months are down and already.

Property prices are dropping - even do the government are spending 10s of billions to prop this sector up and a huge lack of supply

America's spend doubling. war still going on in Ukraine (people may of thought this would of ended by now), you have trouble in Irreal, China have stopped proping up their property market and is in the midst of a huge crisis. While non of this directly impacts Ireland with our reliance on corpo tax and FDI and goods and services from other countries we find ourselves being strangled with high energy and other chigh costs. Not to mention the knock on effect to amount of corpo tax taken in (this is dropping and will continue to do so) put it this way next years budget will not be a give away budget as there will be feck all to give away.

So yeah there have been doom mongers and for those scoffing at me at least I went on the ledge and gave a timeframe (24 months from 2022) and there is nothing in the last 12 months that would suggest that I will be wrong in my timing (give or take 3/4 months). So sticker this post 12 months lets see where we are if Ireland are going gang busters I will hold my hand up and say I got it wrong.

Eclectic Econometrics

I saw this article in the IT this morning

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dublin/2023/10/31/river-living-housing-people-along-the-liffey-at-a-new-gateway-to-dublin-city/

And it made my think about where Crossrail would run to and from if it were built in Ireland.

North to South it would run from Drogheda to Wicklow. East to West it could go from Longford to St. Stephen's Green (Mullingar/Enfield/Maynooth and others in between) or Portlaoise, Kildare, Newbridge, Naas, Tallaght and St. Stephen's Green.

It ran £4B over budget, there were probably Old Etonians getting backhanders from inception to completion, and it would still cost only 2 years of Irish budgetary surplus.

Repo101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314094#Comment_121314094

Property prices have dropped slightly (2% average in Dublin in 12 months to August 2023) is more indicative of 9 consecutive interest rate rises from the ECB causing a very modest restriction in lending instead of being the canary in Ireland's coalmine. The Chinese property market will have 0% impact on Ireland and most of the world is well aware lots of Chinese construction is a scam.

The war in Israel is not going to have a major impact either, Covid and the Ukraine war have had a much worse impact on the world economy. Israel or Gaza aren't going to impact the exchequer or house prices in Ireland. US spending is unlikely to have any impact of FDI either.

I'm not sure what relevance your post really has to the Irish housing market. You're adding a bunch of things together and your conclusion is bad news for Ireland. As the saying goes, if you throw enough mud at the wall, some of it will stick.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121312375#Comment_121312375

The government is not paying the majority of the rent. Many people on HAP are only getting 50-70% of the rent covered and those are people on the maximum rate. A person on shared accommodation in Limerick get 280/month that is about 70% of the cost. A single person gets 420 if they are in accommodation by themselves for a number of years, if it's a new rental they get 520, cheapest rents are 800-1k+ for single accommodation. A couple is 520 as well. A family unit is 700, again cheapest units are probably 1k +

HAP is the best scheme money wise the government every bought out. Even on the costs above the tenants pay 30-40/adult minimum per week. So a family or couple are coming up with about 250 of the HAP payment.

I think HAP costs the government about 700million in 2022 for around 60k tenancies or about 11.5k/year. However I think that is the gross figure and the tenant contribution has to come off of that. I may be incorrect on that

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314277#Comment_121314277

Firstly prices have dropped at a time of a housing crisis and p1ss poor supply and with a population that is at its highest for decades all of those pressures should be pushing prices up and yeah I am aware that its due to interest rates and these will not be coming down any time soon.

So China has 0 impact on Ireland? Really you need to get out and look around. Just one small example there are more and more Chinese investors buying properties in Ireland now than ever before and there will be a knock on effect globally not just for Ireland China being in trouble will cause a lot of issues for the globe in countries like the U.S and unfortunately we are way to open to what happens globally now than at any other point in our past history with FDI and our corpo taxes being exposed for example.

Once again you say Isreal will have no impact - really well this could escalate very quickly with the US on the side of Israel and other countries like Iran etc coming to the aid of the Palestinians. Not to mention this has already caused a knock on effect for oil globally as in its gone up - do we not use oil in Ireland? If we do then it will have an impact on this country.

The US at some stage will have to call a holt on their spending it puts our couple of hundred billion right in the happeny place.

I have bunched things together as this is what is happening globally and our property market is no longer just for Irish people. People throughout the globe look at our property prices, our very high rents , our very favorable taxation systems for an entity buying property to rent to the Irish public and even Stevie feckin Wonder can see the return on investment would be a nice earner for them. you only have to look at the ramping up of REITS and other foreign companies buying into our property market over the last decade to see this. So when something happens globally no matter how trivial Ireland is very very open to these events.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314277#Comment_121314277

I would have thought that interest rate hikes, especially of the magnitude of what we have had, would have had much more of an effect on property prices. The way it is now God help us when the rates start to come down. Prices will probably rocket.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314559#Comment_121314559

Well you have to temper this with other issues at play mainly Supply , demand, government interference and our population explosion. People all need to live somewhere and until more housing is built the level of price drops that should be happening will be kept at a minimum.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314415#Comment_121314415

You cant just pick a few things out of many and assume that thy are going to lead to Irelands collapse.

So what will happen if the ukraine war ends and there is a ceasefire for a while (about all that can ever be expected there) in the middle east?

Would that have the opposite effect of what you are predicting?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314581#Comment_121314581

Well I can pick them out I am making a prediction that we will be in a much bigger recession than now in 12 months time and it will progressively get worse as our corpo tax dwindles and our unemployment ramps up. I cant see any reversal of Ireland's fortunes while interest rates remain at the rate they are at. But its a prediction based on both domestic and global conditions we have done really well over the last few years to be coming in with a budget surplus, but everyone knows that we would be in trouble if we had not been getting our record breaking corpo taxes over those years

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314398#Comment_121314398

"HAP is the best scheme money wise the government every bought out" is an absoutely insane statement. As of June 2022 the state is paying over €1bn a year on it, up from €600mn a year before, and increasing rapidly each year. And all with nothing long term to show for it.

If the literal billions spent on HAP since its inception in 2014 had been spent on building social housing instead we'd have tens of thousands more permanent social housing units owned by the state, and tens of thousands more households not currently renting in the private housing sector - ie reducing pressure in it for everyone else significantly.

Its a terrible long term deal financially for the state's taxpayers, it provides less security for families renting on it instead of in social housing, and it makes the private sector rental market worse for everyone renting privately by keeping tens of thousands of households in it who shouldn't be. Its by any metric a terrible policy decision for everyone except for landlords.

timmyntc

https://www.businesspost.ie/housing/europes-housing-crisis-is-intensifying/

good article to gain a bit of perspective - most of Europe is suffering the same issues as us (though not nearly as bad as us), wrt construction not keeping up with demand.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314620#Comment_121314620

Though I agree that assistance payments are adding fuel to the fire of high rents, it would be short sighted not to acknowledge that without those payments the homeless crisis would be exponentially worse. There is absolutely no way that even if the money was spent on housing, that it would have been delivered in a timeframe which would have prevented tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of people who could not afford rent becoming homeless whilst those who could afford to pay rents took the available accommodation they are currently in. You cannot take assistance payments in isolation and say that it is wasted money which should have been spent elsewhere. There is nothing to support the viewpoint that directing billions of Euro into State sponsored building would have delivered housing at a rate necessary to replace the need for assistance payment and provide housing for those in receipt of it.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314398#Comment_121314398

There is discretionary hap payment for places with high rents- IE everywhere! Homeless hap even higher.

I posted a few months ago there was one rental in all of Balbriggan -e2750 for a 3 bed semi. The government will rent it n charge the tenants peanuts - which they will pay if they feel like it!

No one can tell me that's sustainable, the MNCs are peed off recruiting from abroad and then the staff turn down relocating here due to lack and cost of housing.

https://www.focusireland.ie/knowledge-hub/campaigns/are-you-struggling-and-on-hap/#:~:text=Where%20local%20rents%20are%20high,discretion%20was%20limited%20to%2020%25.

Where local rents are high and tenants are under financial pressure, the local authority can at its discretion increase the amount they pay – so reducing the contribution you need to make. From July 9th, local authorities can pay up to 35% over the official threshold. Previously this discretion was limited to 20%