Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The real problem for Ukraine is that the Spring offensive, at current rates of success, would take 16 years to recapture it's territory. A lot is riding on the Spring offensive and I suspect some aircraft will give Ukraine an additional opportunity for another offensive, possibly later this year or maybe next Spring but by then, and without additional military equipment, we are unlikely to be in a situation where Russia or Ukraine will support a deal due to the cost of war, with both sides even further entrenched in combat.

The aim here should be winning the peace but winning the peace for Ukraine will not be some political deal with Russia where they don't join the EU and get non-Russian external security guarantees. South Korea is an example where an armistice can create an environment for progression and I think, at this point, Ukraine will be forced to surrender territory in order to move into the future. I suspect the NATO will back them until 2024 and then a deal will be on the table.

It's difficult to see peace for a long time, unfortunately. The only incentive I can see for a prolonged support for an Ukrainian offensive over the medium term is to deter both China and Russia, but I suspect the US is silently no longer worried about Russia in non-nuclear terms since the embarrassment of this war.

The other consideration to peace is Russia, they will want to go back to the status quo with Europe and the US which is impossible at this point, that may hold up any potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

It's difficult to see an end when the little master strategist in the Kremlin surrounds himself with lies. There are worse people around him. A war to deter NATO that brings NATO closer to your border... Genius.

Seems more fair for putin to give up some land to try make peace with Ukraine:

You might want to check where your village is located.

"Amur district, Russia"

If Russia starts losing territory in the Amur, things are going pretty bad for them.

Can anyone really believe that? No one is going to publicly pre announce an offensive and the direction it will take place in.

Are you getting all your info from Russian mil bloggers on Telegram?

Nice to see a little progress if that's true

Hopefully Russian offence in North has been stopped as well

That's all one possible scenario. Time will tell. It'll be a great day if he and his criminal band ever end up in the Hague, I'm just not very optimistic it'll happen

Yeah seems to have been a mistake made by new recruits during a rotation of troops and miscommunication. Caught with pants down. It happens. It's war.

Situation stabilised and reversed in some cases.

Looks who has been spotted at the African summit in St. Petersburg

The cnut.

was wondering where he was...id guess more pillaging in Africa is on the cards?

I remember in one city, where we were expecting bombing and shooting, myself and a colleague were walking down the street carrying bomb blast plastic to stick to the windows in our residences, to stop the glass from flying if they got shattered. I remember it vividly to this day, not a soul on the streets leaves fluttering along the ground, and some birds in the air. And we walked along, making small talk, stopping off at each house and delivering until we got to the last one, job done. Time for the sit down and coffee, we each looked at each other saying nothing for awhile, and then my colleague said to me " Did you feel it? I answered yes, on the back of head as we walked along. Same as me he replied" I don't know if or when the sniper(s) went to work, but later on the bombing and shooting did start.