Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Sunny Disposition

I think it's sort of a stalemate already, but is a stalemate really a stalemate, can Russian economy/society keep up this effort. The west is pretty unlikely to lose interest, as it seems Russia hoped. Putin held on despite a mutiny, but how long can he avoid internal revolt from the elites or the wider public. I don't think he'll get away with a couple more years of this.

firemansam4

Simple I dont think Ukraine can win with what they have been given.

The west and particularly the US have helped and are helping with many weapons, but I think a lot more and faster can be done. Why keep delaying f16 training? Why is long range weapons off the agenda for the US?

I dont want to see any of this help stop, I want to see Ukraine get much more, and maybe enough to give them a chance.

But I also dont just blindly believe Ukraine will win and take back Crimea and although very unpalatable, I believe they may have to contend with negotiations of some form in the future.

I hope im proved wrong on this, ill gladly take people bringing up my posts in the future to rub it in.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899406#Comment_120899406

The only country at war with Russia is Ukraine. There is zero obligation for any other country to provide aid, except in self-interest.

European countries will be happy if Russian advances are halted, and the US seems to be happy to bleed Russia white. We can argue about the humanitarian impact on Ukrainians, but when has human suffering ever ended a war,

SlowBlowin

The antics of Wagner PMC

Something of a clandestine operation is going on between Putin/Wagner (IMO). According to Denys a convoy of heavy armour is now heading to the Wagner camp in Belarus.

I think in the next week or so we will possibly see Wagner, and maybe the Belarusian army, push down the western border of Ukraine towards Lviv to disrupt the supply of western weapons. They could go direct to Kyiv but I think the push towards Lviv makes more sense for Putin.

The Russian military machine is really ramping up and production of weapons like the new Lancet2 are going to make a big difference, it appears the west has no answer to the Lancet (see my previous post on the Lancet). 

The western ramp up of arms production is going a lot slower than the Russians, and I think the window of opportunity for the western arms to make a difference is rapidly closing. Russia can get all the technology supplies they need via China and Iran, unless Putin is overthrown or the army rebels against Putin I cant see anything positive for Ukraine in the future.

With no active negotiations going on, the west has really reduced Putin's options, Biden really needs to change direction fast or risk dragging the west into a much bigger conflict. 

I really hope and pray that Russia is evicted from Ukrainian land, but I just can't see it happening with current strategies.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://twitter.com/mixvoronezh/status/1684181297327927296?s=20

Hilarious vatnik nonsense they feed their own. Lads how on earth can ye root for a country spouting this Orwellian scutter

nacho libre

I see a German Intelligence assessment of the Ukranian Counteroffensive was leaked to De Bild. Regarding the Lancet, if what you say is true, militaries adapt and a solution will be found. There was a stage where everyone thought Russia's Hypersonic missile was unstoppable, we soon found out that it can be neutralised. The Russians have also done the same during the course of the war

I really can't see Belarus getting involved directly in the war. Lukashenko is happy to stay on the sidelines. Belarus entering the war could be the end for him. Putin for all his bluster won't risk a direct confrontation with the west. Which is what such a move could bring about.

That's why his bluff should also be called on the blockade of Ships heading to and from Ukranian ports.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899366#Comment_120899366

Whats the story with gas in Europe for next winter? Think Putin was outta luck last year with the mildest winter in yonks. Is Europe sorted? Iirc German industry etc took a huge hit last winter with electricity n gas prices inflation. Now high interest rates as a result.

Will Europe start pushing for negotiations if no breakthrough militarily. Think the yanks will be happy out for war to continue.

SlowBlowin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899849#Comment_120899849

I called it the Lancet 2 which is wrong, I believe its referred to as Izdelie-53. I think its abilities surprised everyone, including the Russians, it has well over 100 confirmed hits on all types of hardware.

Hopefully it has a weakness, but I have yet to see it counter effectively.

Lukashenko has just finished a 3 day meeting with Putin (extended by 2 days), I wonder what they were talking about, surely at a time like this Putins main focus must be winning the war ?

I agree the blockade should be tested.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899724#Comment_120899724

Is a bit of a one-sided view, I wouldn't be as concerned.

With no active negotiations going on, the west has really reduced Putin's options, Biden really needs to change direction fast or risk dragging the west into a much bigger conflict. 

Putin can end the war at any time. He choses not to. I don't see the war escalating unless Putin escalates it.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899936#Comment_120899936

My German ain't great but that looks daycent!

SlowBlowin

I was surprised to learn that the new leader of PMC Wagner in Belarus is a Ukrainian !

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19877

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899936#Comment_120899936

What's more, a number of LNG terminals that were just beginning construction this time last year have since become operational, even in Germany, where the authorities were dragging their heels so hard that they nearly formed a new valley. Germany alone has opened Terminals in Wilhelmshaven, Lubmin and Brunsbüttel, with another terminal to start operating near Stade, incidentally where I spent my childhood, this winter. What's more, additional terminals at Wilhelmshaven are also supposed to go online later this year. So even if we end up with a really harsh winter, which I doubt, given how the global climate seems to be going off the rails this year, there's plenty of additional import capacity even in that one country alone.

SlowBlowin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120899975#Comment_120899975

Yes I agree, but Putin is escalating it right now and with no other options open to him, as a withdrawal will certainly be the end for him personally, he is going to continue to escalate things. The longer there is a drip feed of weapons, the more time he has to get his military in order.

Blarney_man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120896609#Comment_120896609

When I told my better half that we didn't go to school for 2 years, and still ended up as decent high performing human beings, that made their life abroad, she couldn't believe it. Only when I took her there and showed how much is still destroyed, how many people are still suffering, she understood what I/we went through. But she also understood why I'm not afraid. I can walk down O'Connell street in Dublin and get attacked, I'll throw them all down the river and go for a meal, they might have a knife, but I might have .... Balls 😉

SlowBlowin

This interview pretty much sums up my view on things:

https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/17818

zv2

...

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120896546#Comment_120896546

what's the story is Putin trying to make excuses for why he's packing the war theater full of civilians to use as shields?

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900088#Comment_120900088

I would not agree with much of what this man says,but he does make a couple of interesting points in this interview. I was not aware he was running for President.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900642#Comment_120900642

That man has nearly as much blood on his hands as Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld.

SlowBlowin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900642#Comment_120900642

Yes same here, but the first 5 minutes is pretty much my view - the drip feed of weapons etc.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900685#Comment_120900685

Yes, that's the part I agree with too. This guy if he ever became President would make the world even more dangerous. He has never seen a war he did not like. He is probably only running because he hates Trump so much

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120900076#Comment_120900076

You went to school all right, just it was a very different kind of school, and lessons learned in that kind of school are never forgotten. You will look at the world through different eyes afterwards. Everything that happens will be measured through those experiences. And you will know not the price, but the value of things. In any kind of a discussion, it will affect your viewpoint, sometimes to the point where others find it difficult to follow your arguments. And of course for the low life who prey on people, they don't have a clue as to what they are dealing with.

mike_cork

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1684290119895752705

NY times claiming Ukraine has begun committing it's western equipped brigades in the south

mike_cork

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1684284783780569090

.....

TheValeyard

I wonder did the Russian push up North force Ukraine to commit more down South.

Seanmadradubh

Something to consider.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1684177937094909953

SlowBlowin

I would be interested in hearing the opinion of boards members who have direct experience of conflict (jmreire) - Is this military guy making sense, or is this just Russia propaganda ? I only just watched one of the videos, and I am not sure of the integrity of the channel..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6NVmhOqmCM

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120901060#Comment_120901060

One statistic now being circulated came courtesy of The New York Times, citing unnamed U.S. and European officials. In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s campaign, the newspaper reported, as much as 20% of the military hardware it deployed to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed. That percentage was given without providing a figure for the total amount of hardware committed; nor did it take into account how much of the damaged kit has since been repaired and redeployed.

It fell to another broadsheet to be more specific. The Washington Post reported that as of July 20 — or six weeks into the counteroffensive — “about a dozen” Bradleys have been destroyed, according to an anonymous U.S. defense official. Many more Bradleys have been damaged but repaired either locally or in Poland. Yet even this newspaper leaves out a crucial bit of context. Ukraine began this operation with 143 Bradleys and has since received or is about to receive 47 new ones, making a permanent loss of 12 amount to just 6% of its stock

That's seems the important part. It was flagged on here plenty of times that Ukraine only committed between 20% and 30% of the new western hardware (it's why we haven't seen any Challenger/Marders/Strykers/CV90's in action yet)

ZeroThreat

No one here or the public in general will have any idea how this war really went until long after it's all over imho.

Too many ex general/colonels popping up to do interviews on youtube/msm over the past year and a half and they all have contradictory narratives. So again as I said, no one has a clue other than the decision makers at the highest levels.

Francie Barrett

https://t.me/romanov_92/40721

Staromayorskoye, Volnovakha district, Donetsk People's Republic, Russia.

Very serious risks of surrendering the village.

If Staromayorskoye (held by the 5th Army) is surrendered, there is a serious risk of losing Urozhaynoye (held by the 36th Army - they will simply withdraw from it and say that they are occupying more favorable lines).

The enemy is trying to competently cut into the flanks of the positions of the 35th Army and take it into a cauldron. Everyone on the ground sees this, but they do not take countermeasures.

Commanders do not have enough competence to solve this problem. Now the issue is at the stage of shifting the blame on each other.

Ukrainian sources already say fighting is taking place in the village.