Russia - threadbanned users in OP

...but Russia Today is solid right?

Kadyrov's mate gone

So they are still talking about it but according to a few people the whole mighty Europen industrial sector was on a war footing and production had been massively increased here we are heading into July and still it's been Still talked about, with a big IF from Mr Rhemmeintal ,this was announced earlier in the new year,were now at the halfway point of the year and they are still discussing 1 million artillery shells this year ,

???

ruSSians always have regarded other nations as dumb idiots, always placed themselves above any other nation as something more superior, almost God like, only to show the whole world that perhaps there is nobody more dumb and retarded in the galaxy than ruSSians. Except from maybe kermit.

I think the blowing of the dams is certainly worth talking about in the sense of how reckless it is and what damage it will do to the local environment, local residents, and the utilities they provide, but I would have to think that the blowing of dams is among the primary things that the AFU would be budgeting for when planning this offensive when you consider what little regard Russian occupiers have shown for civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, be it power generation plants or hospitals.

You cannot dismiss it out of hand though.

As the saying goes, soldiers win battles, economies win wars.

Russia has been relying on 50 years worth of military stockpiles built up over the cold war. Those stocks, while vast are dwindling and there is a limit on how quickly they can be replaced, especially the more modern and harder to produce pieces.

Take for example the 2S19 Msta-S.

Russia had approx 760 in service before the war. No one knows if these are all even operational.

Oryx says 123 have been destroyed or captured. This figure does not include the 5 that were taken out in the past 48 hours, so it could well be an undercount.

Which begs the question, how many can Russia put in the field right now? Given the maintenance issues, definitely less than 500 and I am being generous.

How many are Russia producing per year to make up the shortfall?

For reference, the stockpile has been building up since 1989, so Russia had 35 years to get to that number.

The point is, Russia might be in this for the long haul, but it simply lacks the industrial capacity to replace everything it is losing.

I have had the exact same thoughts over the last week or two

For me after last Autumn attack by the Ukrainians they were unstoppable

But seeing them being bogged down was an eye opener

But last few days started to think little differently, not because i think there still unstoppable, the Russians have definitely upped there game

We still haven't seen the bulk of the Ukrainian advance forces

Where are they

No Challenger tanks and very few Bradleys actually in battle

Wouldnt it be a crazy idea to send a few Leopards and Bradleys to attack somewhere, soon as Russians see Lepords they believe thats main attack is there

Some military guys with a lot more knowledge than me believe the north should have been the place for the counter offensive

Could this whole thing be a sideshow to the main thing

I dont know but its strange there just using a small part of there force

Think we will know a lot more in a week

I don't think sending a few Bradleys and leopards was anything but a probe to see what they are going to face for the bigger objectives,but it could potentially have been a lot worse,they could have sent 20 + leopards and Bradleys and lost them at the first attempt, they have still only limited number of western armor despite the Americans already saying they will replace the 15 lost Bradlesy this will take weeks for them to be pulled from storage, completely checked over and serviced before being put on a boat which adds up to weeks to the replacement of anything on the battlefield,

If they lose a similar number at every abandoned village which there is hundreds occupied by the Russians the counter offensive will be reduced to a very slow crawl.

It was claimed on here Russian forces had already collapsed weeks ago if anything they got stronger

One plan could be to push north of Bakhmut, where they are already winning and make haste to the Russian border. This would cut off the troops in the north, which they could savage. They could also surround Bakhmut and then push south. But this is only armchair stuff. I'm not a military person.

I understand why the Russians have put so much defense in the south

If the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azoz then its game over for all Russian occupation south of Kherson

The supply chain is gone from the Donetsk side and the Ukrainians now have the ability to blow the Kerch bridge with storm shadow anytime they want

They will simply have to retreat to Crimea and hope the ferries can supply them from there for the defense of Crimea

Have the Russians put all there eggs in one basket down south and are they still moving troops down there from the north

Took them a lot of time to quieten that cross border thing up north so seems they didn't have much resources there

But again we are all guessing just like the Russians, time will tell

I’d be of the same mind. I would however like to see Donetsk liberated from Russian / DPR control. That city in particular appears to have been the epicenter of Moscow’s attempts to Russify the area, and having Ukraine take it back would be a massive blow to Russian morale.

But tacktically, Melitopol is the key to all this. Crimea is what Putin want’s and if he can’t rule Kyiv I guess he’ll take a re-enforced Crimea as a runner up prize. I’d bet you he doesn’t give a flying fig about the DPR or LPR. They were a means to an end, and he somehow had to give them up to reach his goals, he’d do it in a heartbeat.