Say what you want about Ukraine, but they are masters of getting good PR stories out. One of their drone pilots guided a Russian soldier to safety in Bakhmut after most of his unit had died and he wanted to surrender. Wall Street Journal talked to the people involved and put a video on YouTube explaining what happened. Caution: bodies of dead soldiers are shown in the video.
A very nice story under the circumstances and shows that even in war people can still stay human. Especially if you consider all the stories of Russian atrocities...
Certainly, splitting the land bridge could spell the end of the Russian invasion, but Ukraine would need to have enough in reserve to actually press home that advantage, and that would depend on what this particular offensive might cost them in terms of man power and equipment.
If the Ukrainians found a southern offensive a tough slog, getting through Crimea would presumably be that on steroids. Blowing up the Kerch bridge would obviously help cut off Crimea, but it could still be resupplied by sea albeit more slowly. You would think that Ukraine would need to control either the sky or the sea above or around Crimea in order to make a successful offensive in this area. Air power, especially, would be of huge value at any point, including the current operations Ukraine is conducting.
No, it's rubbish as far as i know. Do you watch it?
Going north puts you on the way to donesk which has been heavily mined and fortified over the last ten years, going to the border brings you closer to Russian artillery to,
Melitopol is the keystone to the whole landbridge and access to Crimea,you take melitopol you then split the landbridge allowing you to come down through Kherson securing the whole area including Zaporizhzhia, that leaves them free to move to berdyansk Russia losses the port and has to withdraw to Mariupol, that going to be a bloody battle that was one of the objectives putin wanted since 2014
I understand why the Russians have put so much defense in the south
If the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azoz then its game over for all Russian occupation south of Kherson
The supply chain is gone from the Donetsk side and the Ukrainians now have the ability to blow the Kerch bridge with storm shadow anytime they want
They will simply have to retreat to Crimea and hope the ferries can supply them from there for the defense of Crimea
Have the Russians put all there eggs in one basket down south and are they still moving troops down there from the north
Took them a lot of time to quieten that cross border thing up north so seems they didn't have much resources there
But again we are all guessing just like the Russians, time will tell
You have a point but the need is now, done right there will be no need to worry about Russia for a generation or two.
The bigger Communist brother in China is the real threat this century.
For all we know supplying Mongolia with 40k shells a day might be the best thing in history come 2030.
One thing you can be certain of is that whatever the scenarios most of Europe will have only a paler imitation then of the depleted stocks and run down armies of today.
One plan could be to push north of Bakhmut, where they are already winning and make haste to the Russian border. This would cut off the troops in the north, which they could savage. They could also surround Bakhmut and then push south. But this is only armchair stuff. I'm not a military person.
To keep this in context, these look like earthen dams on reservoirs used solely for irrigation water. The volume of water involved would be a fraction of the Nova Khakovka dam. Here is the embankment of one of the reservoirs
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2738526,35.9408619,3a,75y,18.29h,78.84t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipM80GpxlBrTXopF8qBwnpkg3fXfj80wWh3_HY9H!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipM80GpxlBrTXopF8qBwnpkg3fXfj80wWh3_HY9H%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya53.000004-ro-0-fo100!7i10240!8i5120?entry=ttu
This is the Tokmach river further downstream in Tokmak.
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2505237,35.7247177,3a,75y,40h,100t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOkQCL8JYuyhLtsBWxXEyNcZNtGN1C_B-aHDEfW!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOkQCL8JYuyhLtsBWxXEyNcZNtGN1C_B-aHDEfW%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-10-ya31.999996-ro-0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096?entry=ttu
The ESB have probably done more damage in the past releasing water on the Lee than blowing any of these dams will cause.
Part of the problem is that, the current war aside, it is not clear that massive amounts of unguided ammunition will be required for NATOs future needs. NATO relies on superior ISR, air power and precision strikes. The prevailing theory before this was is that massive amounts of cheap artillery shells just simply wouldnt be needed. Even now, it is not clear that, in a hypothetical conventional war between NATO and Russia that NATO would use artillery to the same extent Ukraine are.
So it makes no sense to ramp up production to several million rounds per year, at tremendous cost, when the requirement for same is not really needed.
Put another way, NATO has committed over $1 trillion to the F35 and the US spent $20 billion on the now cancelled Zumwalt destroyer programme.
At a cost of c. $500-$1,000 per dumb shell, if NATO really wanted them, they would have no problem making them. They just dont see the long term future in early cold war tech, is all.
Just to add to this, Ukraine just have to fight Russia, but Russia needs to keep troops in reserve to prop up ailing CTSO members and other allies, quell domestic disquiet and also to be prepared for the all out war with NATO that seems to be always going on, at least in their heads. They also need to be able to offer to supply smaller nations with materiel in order to keep hold of the idea that they are a world leader. They cant allow China to suddenly become the no.2 defense contractor in the world.
So while Ukraine can and possibly will fight to the last bullet, Russia has to keep a lot in reserve. Its hard to see how they havent already passed this point, but for political (i.e. non military related) reasons cannot withdraw now.
I don't think sending a few Bradleys and leopards was anything but a probe to see what they are going to face for the bigger objectives,but it could potentially have been a lot worse,they could have sent 20 + leopards and Bradleys and lost them at the first attempt, they have still only limited number of western armor despite the Americans already saying they will replace the 15 lost Bradlesy this will take weeks for them to be pulled from storage, completely checked over and serviced before being put on a boat which adds up to weeks to the replacement of anything on the battlefield,
If they lose a similar number at every abandoned village which there is hundreds occupied by the Russians the counter offensive will be reduced to a very slow crawl.
It was claimed on here Russian forces had already collapsed weeks ago if anything they got stronger
@thereitisgone
Could this whole thing be a sideshow to the main thing
This is what analysts seem to be saying - that the AFU is probing defensive lines for weaknesses before fully committing its armoured battalions. Is there not an entry in The Art of War about going around the enemy fortifications and getting in behind them?
I have had the exact same thoughts over the last week or two
For me after last Autumn attack by the Ukrainians they were unstoppable
But seeing them being bogged down was an eye opener
But last few days started to think little differently, not because i think there still unstoppable, the Russians have definitely upped there game
We still haven't seen the bulk of the Ukrainian advance forces
Where are they
No Challenger tanks and very few Bradleys actually in battle
Wouldnt it be a crazy idea to send a few Leopards and Bradleys to attack somewhere, soon as Russians see Lepords they believe thats main attack is there
Some military guys with a lot more knowledge than me believe the north should have been the place for the counter offensive
I dont know but its strange there just using a small part of there force
Think we will know a lot more in a week
This is what the cooler heads among us have been saying for the last 12 months, but the eternal fantasists (there are far fewer of them now than even 6 months ago) were still insisting the Russian defence would collapse like a deck of cards almost as soon as this offensive started and Crimea would be back in Ukrainian hands by high summer.
It's early days yet but I don't think anyone could say things are looking great right now and the question about America's ultimate aim in the war is also a valid one.
You cannot dismiss it out of hand though.
As the saying goes, soldiers win battles, economies win wars.
Russia has been relying on 50 years worth of military stockpiles built up over the cold war. Those stocks, while vast are dwindling and there is a limit on how quickly they can be replaced, especially the more modern and harder to produce pieces.
Take for example the 2S19 Msta-S.
Russia had approx 760 in service before the war. No one knows if these are all even operational.
Oryx says 123 have been destroyed or captured. This figure does not include the 5 that were taken out in the past 48 hours, so it could well be an undercount.
Which begs the question, how many can Russia put in the field right now? Given the maintenance issues, definitely less than 500 and I am being generous.
How many are Russia producing per year to make up the shortfall?
For reference, the stockpile has been building up since 1989, so Russia had 35 years to get to that number.
The point is, Russia might be in this for the long haul, but it simply lacks the industrial capacity to replace everything it is losing.
CNN endorsing this footage
I think the blowing of the dams is certainly worth talking about in the sense of how reckless it is and what damage it will do to the local environment, local residents, and the utilities they provide, but I would have to think that the blowing of dams is among the primary things that the AFU would be budgeting for when planning this offensive when you consider what little regard Russian occupiers have shown for civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, be it power generation plants or hospitals.
That doesn’t sound good
ruSSians always have regarded other nations as dumb idiots, always placed themselves above any other nation as something more superior, almost God like, only to show the whole world that perhaps there is nobody more dumb and retarded in the galaxy than ruSSians. Except from maybe kermit.
A million shells, even talked about is welcome but its 2700 shells a day.
10 million a year that would be shell delivery for a more serious effort for Ukraine.
18 months in and still talking about making plans for production, never mind implementation or deciding on options.
Embarrassing.
???
That's what I'm thinking. Between burned out guns and destroyed guns how much are they left with? Supposedly Russia had 6000 tanks to begin with and almost 4000 have been destroyed. So...
So they are still talking about it but according to a few people the whole mighty Europen industrial sector was on a war footing and production had been massively increased here we are heading into July and still it's been Still talked about, with a big IF from Mr Rhemmeintal ,this was announced earlier in the new year,were now at the halfway point of the year and they are still discussing 1 million artillery shells this year ,
"They say that they waited two hours in one place. As you might guess, the only things that arrived were HIMARS and artillery." 😂
That's so stupid! Putin war is really showing us how awfully run is the Russian army.
General takes selfie in full ceremonial gear and puts the hotel fire escape instructions centre of shot.
Kadyrov's mate gone
You can apply the old Hemingway quote to Russian supplies.
'How did you go bankrupt?'
'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.'
We are still in phase 1.
...but Russia Today is solid right?
That would be 85,000 extra consumers, hence a higher economic benefit, plus all the extra Government money pumped into the economy which circulates and creates more tax revenue etc.
Overtime the costs to the west are very low, while the costs to Russia are high, over time the Russian economy which remember is only 4.5 times that of Bangladesh, will get much poorer. Hence Putin's new taxes.
Also the war has shown the need to stop outsourcing manufacturing of key tech, those jobs will come home to the EU and US aka more jobs
Hitting the elite is definitely a way to unsettle the horses around Putin unfortunately Putin has been able to keep a lot of the pain away from the better off in Moscow if that changed he could well be ousted .
I have full sympathy with Poland and the Baltic countries and I always use their example in arguments with guys who spout pro Russian rubbish. They know what Russia is like. They know full well the true nature of Russia as do Finland et al . They have felt the full brutal weight of Russian imperialism. Their struggle makes our own struggles against imperialism in Ireland look like a bun fight.
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